Aralez 🦮

Full-Time Trader / First $500k in 22 yrs

Daily ALPHA in my TG V

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 ALERT:

$BTC is preparing for a massive dump to ~$32k

Every cycle, history repeats itself:

- 2017: $19k PEAK → 2018: -84.1%
- 2021: $69k PEAK → 2022: -77.4%
- 2025: $126k PEAK → 2026: -72.2%

Things are about to get worse – Bookmark it...

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

$ETH is setting up for its biggest move of 2026...

Right now, the setup looks simple:
"Market is building liquidity on both sides"

Based on that, here's my roadmap:

1. Pump to $2k-$2,1k+ in August
2. Dump + cycle bottom below $1,500 in Sep-Nov

Turn notifs on so you don't miss next market call...

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 WHY IS EVERYONE IGNORING THIS

Every $BTC cycle follows same script

My plan is simple:
$64K → $40K → New Bull Run → $196K in 2029

IMPORTANT:

I called the 2025 $BTC ATH
I called the drop $83K -> $60K

Next call will be posted here first

Follow and turn notifications on

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 FINAL $BTC BULL TRAP IS GETTING CLOSE...

Just as I said before, market is playing out exactly according to my plan

In case you missed it, here's my roadmap:
$64K → $70K → $55K → $41K → $71K → $112K → $160K

Timeline:

1. $70K - AUG
2. $42K - OCT-NOV (Bottom)
3. $71K - Q1 2027
4. $112K - Q3 2027
5. $160K - Q3-Q4 2028

My biggest market calls so far:

1. Called $BTC cycle top near $126K
2. Nailed moves from $96K → $60K and $83K → $59K
3. Caught the latest ~10% $SPX correction

Missed those? No worries - next macro calls could be even bigger

Turn notifs on so you don't miss next one...

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 WARNING: DON'T BUY $SPCX YET

Today, 912,000,000 $SPCX shares unlock

Roughly 20% of entire supply

Around $100 BILLION in locked stock - sellable for first time since IPO

Not next month. Not next week. Today, August 6

Everyone's watching price. Smart money is watching the supply

This isn't a dip. It's a flood

MY PLAN - unchanged since day one:

1. Fake bounce from $104 to $120 → DONE
2. Retest of resistance at $120-$125 → DONE
3. Aug 6 unlock (912M shares / ~20% of supply) → HAPPENING NOW
4. Breakdown below $100 psychological support
5. Final bottom test in the $75-$85 zone

Here's what most people don't understand about unlocks

The sellers aren't traders who bought at $197

They're early investors and employees who got in at private-round valuations - a fraction of today's price

They're green at $110. They're green at $85. They're green at $60

For over two months they watched $SPCX bleed from $197 to $110 and couldn't touch it

Today the door opens

And there's more

Even insiders who DON'T sell still hurt you - market must price in that they can. Market makers hedge. Shorts get ammunition. Bids step back

We've seen this movie before:

Facebook, August 2012: first unlock freed 271M shares → all-time low within weeks, more than 50% below IPO

Rivian, May 2022: lockup expired → Ford dumped 8M shares → down roughly 20% in a day

This $115 area? A lower-high trap absorbing last late buyers before flood

I'm still flat. My bids wait at $85

I called early $SPCX pump. I mapped this entire drop step-by-step - publicly

The moment I place my first buy, it gets posted here in real-time

Stay close. Notifs on

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 Retail's dumping $SPCX right before Elon's biggest play

2016: Tesla buys SolarCity. Wall Street calls it a bailout

What followed: $TSLA +4,828%. $10K became half a million

Now the same play is forming at 10x the scale

February: SpaceX absorbs xAI. Combined entity: $1.25 TRILLION

March: FTC clears Tesla to convert its $2B xAI stake into direct SpaceX equity

June: Wedbush puts 80-90% odds on full Tesla x SpaceX merger by early 2027

This isn't a forecast. It's a calendar

And the unlock dump everyone's afraid of?

That's the entry being handed out

SolarCity holders sat through years of "bailout" headlines before payoff

This time the catalysts are already dated

My zone stays $85-$100 - pre-merger prices on the biggest structural move of decade

You're early or you're the exit

Turn on notifs - I'll update when signal confirms

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 THIS $SPX PATTERN HAS REPEATED 15+ TIMES

Every major rally eventually revisits one key level:

The 200-day EMA

This pattern stands out most during U.S. midterm years:

→ 2022: ATH → correction → 200D EMA (-27%)
→ 2025: ATH → correction → 200D EMA (-21%)
→ 2026: ATH → correction → 200D EMA (-23%)?

$SPX recently printed a fresh ATH around 7,800

Euphoria is back, fresh money keeps chasing highs... while another major dump may be just ahead

If this pattern repeats again, I expect $SPX to revisit 5,800-6,000 zone

Most still don't see it coming...

Turn notifs on - my next global market call could be the biggest yet

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 $BTC IS SETTING UP A MAJOR BULL TRAP

Final move toward $70K FVG is still ahead...

My plan is simple:

1. Liquidity sweep above $67K
2. Rejection back below
3. Distribution begins
4. Drop toward $50K

Dump is getting close - turn on notifs, I’ll update

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

$BTC bottom is closer than it looks...

My roadmap for next 90-120 days:
$65K → $70K → $57K → $44K → $68K → $83K

Turn notifications on so you don't miss next market call

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 THIS WILL BE MY BIGGEST SHORT POSITION

Swing SHORT from $69K

30-60 day target: $52K

Orders are already set - turn notifs on, I'll update soon

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS SETTING UP A 20% CRASH

The S&P 500 has been dumping for weeks

Most people still think this is just another healthy pullback

They have NO idea what's coming

Wave 6 has already marked the top. The final melt-up could be over

Here's what changed

Inflation is back. June CPI: 3.5%. Energy prices are ripping again

The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% in July - but three FOMC members dissented, demanding a HIKE

9 of 18 Fed officials now pencil in at least one hike this year

Markets price a roughly 55% chance of a 2026 hike. September is live

New Chair Kevin Warsh built his reputation on one thing: killing inflation He doesn't need market's permission

And there's more

Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index:

→ Apple
→ Nvidia
→ Amazon
→ Microsoft
→ Meta

The index holds 503 stocks but trades like it holds 54

A 10% drop in just the top 5 drags the whole index down ~2.6%

Now the leaders are cracking

Meta fell 8% in a day after earnings. Free cash flow: down 91%. AI capex: $130-145 BILLION this year

We've seen this movie before

2018: Fed hiked into weakness → $SPX fell nearly 20% in one quarter
2022: Fed tightened into sticky inflation → -25% peak to trough

If the Fed hikes in September:

→ The AI trade reprices
→ Index concentration breaks
→ Dip buyers get trapped
→ The correction turns into a crash

My call: $SPX ends this cycle 20%+ lower - from ~7,800 toward 6,200

This isn't caution. This is the setup

Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k. The next call matters more

Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

$BTC is one step away from a major DUMP...

The Ascending Channel is almost fully played out

Personally, I expect $BTC below $50K by end of September

Turn notifications on so you don't miss next market call

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 WHY IS NOBODY SEEING THIS

2020 → bottom near 2,400
2022 → bottom near 3,500
2025 → bottom near 4,800
2026 → projected bottom near 6,400

Four cycles. One structure

Here's how the machine works

$SPX rips higher. Everyone calls it a new era

Then index doesn't crash into nothing - it rebalances back to last consolidation zone

The shelf where previous breakout was built

2020: COVID dragged it roughly 34% down - straight into 2019 base

2022: Fed's hiking cycle cut about 25% - straight into 2021 breakout zone

2025: tariff shock knifed it roughly 20% lower - straight into prior shelf

Every single time, price returned to the origin of the previous leg

Not random. Mechanical

So now connect the dots

$SPX just closed at a record near 7,800

The shelf this entire rally was built on sits near 6,400

That's a roughly 17% air gap between euphoria and structure

Here's what the market isn't pricing in

Each reset needed a trigger nobody saw coming. COVID. Inflation. Tariffs

The trigger is never the point. The structure is

And right now a handful of mega-caps are holding entire index together:

→ Apple
→ Nvidia
→ Microsoft
→ Amazon
→ Meta

When leaders break together, trip to shelf doesn't take months. It takes weeks

This isn't a crash call into the abyss

It's a rebalance. Same as 2020. Same as 2022. Same as 2025

The market always comes back for the zone it left behind

6,400 is that zone

Pin this post. Come back to it when we get there

Turn notifications on - I'll post warning BEFORE next leg down begins

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 WARNING: $SPCX BOTTOM WON'T FEEL LIKE A BOTTOM

Retail bought the IPO. Whales sold it to them

Now the same people who FOMO'd top are puking bottom

This is the most predictable cycle in markets

We've seen this movie before:

Meta 2012: IPO at $38 → dumped to $17. -54%. "Facebook is dead"

Then it 10x'd

Palantir 2020: hyped to $45 → bled to $6. Down ~87%

Then it became one of the best performers of decade

Same script. Different ticker

Here's the full $SPCX map:

Phase 1 - IPO hype → retail piles in. Done
Phase 2 - Whales distribute → dump below IPO. Done
Phase 3 - Accumulation → months of boring chop between $84 and $138
Phase 4 - Breakout → institutions enter with size and credibility
Phase 5 - Re-rating → leg retail doesn't believe until it's over

The path I'm watching:

$138 → $111 → $84
$84 → $111 → $138
$138 → $215 → $365 → $500

Ask yourself: why does the chart HAVE to get boring first?

Because whales can't buy size in a trending market

They need your boredom. They need your capitulation

Weak hands leave in the chop. Strong hands load in silence

And while the price goes sideways, Starlink revenue keeps compounding. Fundamentals don't chop. Prices do

By the time institutions confirm the breakout, the easy 3x is gone

The bottom won't feel like an opportunity. It'll feel like the end

That's the tell

You're accumulating with the whales - or you're liquidity they're waiting for

Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k publicly

Turn notifs on. The breakout call drops here first

[Aralez 🦮 @0xAralezn]

@Lucky_m_X @WatcherGuru dm

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

🚨 SPACEX IS ABOUT TO REPEAT TESLA 2016

And nobody is ready for what will happen.

2016:

Tesla merged with SolarCity.

$9.47 → $25.98

+174.34% in days.

Now look at today:

2026:

– SpaceX is already down 50% from its IPO price at launch
– The share unlock is about to hit the market
– After new lows, Elon could absorb the shares cheaply and make them expensive

But there’s one thing…

Tesla mergers in 2016–2019:

– Low-market-cap companies merged with Tesla
– Pre-COVID market
– Low expectations
– No questionable trillionaire status

SpaceX 2026:

– Starlink + xAI + Tesla = multitrillion-dollar companies merged into one
– The stock market is at the most overvalued level in history
– A pure monopoly in space

That is not the same opportunity.

Most people think a Tesla merger with SpaceX would be a nothingburger:

Yes, Tesla is already a high-market-cap company.

But the history of its mergers with SolarCity, Maxwell, and Hibar brought investors gains of many hundreds of percent in a short period of time.

So now you have two choices:

Stay away from the most hyped IPO in history after a 50% post-launch drop…

Or understand what Tesla in 2016 already showed you.

Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash.

When I start buying SpaceX, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.

Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

🚨 THE FINAL BULL TRAP IS FORMING

Most people are positioned for the wrong move again.

The final flush to $48K is getting dangerously close:

$82K → $58K → $63K → $58K → $48K

$42K-$48K bottom by October-November

$60K breakout in early 2027

$100K in late 2027

What looks like recovery right now is not recovery.

It is the last trap before the cycle low.

Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash.

When I start buying Bitcoin, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.

Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

🚨 I WARNED YOU. RIGHT BEFORE THIS DUMP.

But most people ignored it.

And now the crash is here.

Bitcoin dropped to $62K.

Over $125M in longs wiped out in hours.

Many hope this is just a temporary correction.

But the macro tells a different story:

PPI just jumped to 6.2%.

The fastest pace in 6+ years.

That killed any hope of rate cuts.

And to make things worse, Fed Chair Warsh is hawkish:

Higher-for-longer rates and balance sheet shrinkage.

10Y yields above 4.7%. Capital is flowing out of risk assets.

Spot ETF outflows are at historic highs.

The crowd is praying for a quick bounce.

They will be deeply disappointed.

This is just the beginning of the real move down.

Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash.

When I start buying again, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.

Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

IS GOLD A GOOD INVESTMENT?

I’ve been thinking about it for a while, and the numbers look great.

I truly believe we’ve reached levels that are too important to ignore, and the data support my claim.

The paper vs. physical disconnect in gold has reached an ATH.

I’m monitoring the flow of funds for the capitulation signal that finally breaks the suppression mechanism.

Here’s the data regarding the hidden war between the east and west:

WHY CHINA NEEDS IT

Most retail investors operate under the assumption that China wants gold to explode higher.

INCORRECT.

China is not trading gold for upside.

China is stockpiling gold for monetary protection.

Gold is their hedge against sanctions, currency debasement, and reserve weaponization.

If gold reprices too fast, it exposes stress in the global monetary system.

That’s why accumulation happens quietly, through official reserves and domestic channels.

They want control.

THE WHALE POSITIONING

We now have confirmation of sustained central bank accumulation of physical gold.

China, Russia, and emerging market central banks have been removing physical supply from the market at record pace.

At the same time, Western markets continue to expand paper gold exposure.

This is a spread trade.

They want physical gold off-market while paper absorbs demand.

Western desks are facilitating this, supplying paper liquidity while physical leaves the system.

THE FED PIVOT: STRIKE PRICE

The United States holds over 8,000 tons of gold.

Here is the logic regarding the US balance sheet.

With $38T in debt, there is no path forward without asset repricing.

Gold is the only monetary asset that can be revalued without default.

Discussion around monetary stability increasingly points toward tolerance of higher gold prices.

They need gold higher to stabilize confidence without explicit restructuring.

THE GLOBAL REVALUATION EVENT

There is zero incentive left for any sovereign entity to suppress gold:

- BRICS: dumping treasuries for hard assets.
- Europe: needs asset revaluation to stabilize central bank books.
- USA: facing $38T in debt.

The only viable mechanism is a repricing of sovereign gold reserves to market reality.

THE SUPPLY PRESSURE

Physical gold availability is tightening.

Mine supply is flat.
Discovery rates are falling.
Central banks are absorbing metal directly from the market.

Paper demand can expand infinitely.

Physical supply cannot.

When delivery pressure rises, paper resolves the imbalance.

They cannot suppress gold indefinitely because the system doesn’t allow it.

Gold reprices to restore confidence.

Metals are a generational play, a true store of value.

But don’t rely on an ETF or a contract.

Hold the physical asset.

If it’s not in your safe, it’s not your money.

Btw, I’ve been here for more than 15 years, and I’ve called every top and bottom of the market.

When I make my next move, I’ll share it here publicly because I want you to win.

A lot of people will wish they followed me sooner.

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

🚨 PAY ATTENTION

Insider selling just turned aggressive.

I track high-volume insiders every single day.

Out of the top 500 significant insider transactions this past week, all 500 were sells.

While they’re telling you “the economy is doing great,” they’re dumping everything they have.

ZERO BUYS.

This kind of zero-buy cluster has only appeared near major market tops: 2000, 2007, and 2021.

Think about that. The people with the most information aren’t touching this market.

That’s one reason I publicly sold 95% of my stocks a couple of weeks ago.

Just as expected, every asset on earth moved lower at the same time.

– BTC dipped
– Silver crashed
– Stocks dropped, especially tech
– U.S. housing is collapsing quietly

Mortgage rates are still above 7%, affordability is at multi-decade lows, and delinquencies are rising.

It recovered a little, but buyers are being used as exit liquidity right now.

That confirms my thesis.

Insiders are prioritising protection over returns, and that likely persists through 2026.

This is happening while real rates remain positive and liquidity continues to be drained.

According to my investor friends, we’re heading into a storm.

If you’re panicking, it’s because you’re overinvested.

Those who’ve been preparing for months see this as the sale of the decade.

Am I telling you to sell everything? No, absolutely not.

Like I said the other day, I’m keeping my long-term BTC, real estate, and metals.

I’ll probably keep those assets forever and pass them down to my kids.

But you shouldn’t be all-in either. Especially in stocks. Which are trading at some of the most extreme valuations in history.

The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE is near 40, a level only seen in 1929 and the dot-com peak.

Anyway, I’ll keep watching what insiders are doing, and I’ll keep you updated in real time.

When I start deploying a lot of capital again, I’ll share it here.

Turn on notifications or you will miss everything.

Many people will regret not following me sooner.