0xDeFiJ

DeFi enthusiastic. PhD in ECE. Smart contract developer and an okay trader.

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

1/ There may be a surprisingly large relative-value trade hiding in OpenAI’s pre-IPO markets.

Bitget’s $PREOPAI and Binance’s $OPENAI perpetual both reference OpenAI—but they currently imply very different valuations.

Here’s the setup 🧵

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@hosseeb Even if they ultimately decide to do this, it'll be almost impossible to enforce. For open-source models, companies can just fine-tune them a little and claim they're the latest models developed in-house.

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@phongle "institutional", "$3.5 million". I didn't know these words could show up in the same sentence.

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@cryptopomperino @thsottiaux @tibo Tibo has 300k followers, while Codex has 10M users, if you know what I mean.

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@kingluffywang 这类操作的盈亏比并不好。做空的收益是凹性的，风险却是凸性的。不过，

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

11/ The thesis:

OpenAI is being priced at roughly $867B on Bitget and $1.158T on Binance.

Long the cheaper normalized exposure and short the richer one—but treat it as a risky convergence trade, not guaranteed arbitrage.

Not financial advice.

#OpenAI #PreIPO #Arbitrage #RWA #binance #bitget

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

1/ There may be a surprisingly large relative-value trade hiding in OpenAI’s pre-IPO markets.

Bitget’s $PREOPAI and Binance’s $OPENAI perpetual both reference OpenAI—but they currently imply very different valuations.

Here’s the setup 🧵

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

10/ Main risks:

• OpenAI delays or cancels an IPO
• Binance changes its estimated share count or rebases the contract
• Bitget’s conversion ratio differs from the assumed mapping
• Basis widens before converging
• Liquidation, liquidity, exchange and counterparty risk

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@wangzhian8848 领导觉得万科的事情热度太低，想再炒作一下

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@thsottiaux Sadly there's no pro model or free usage in work😄

[0xDeFiJ @0xDeFiJ]

@hosseeb @deanwball This seems very capitalist to me