0xPredictor

trader

pm referral link 👇

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

🧐

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips.

Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices.

Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery.

Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities.

The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market.

Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate.

The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

💀

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

@citrini @jukan05 💀

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

$kospi bagholders rn

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

the joy of 🇬🇧 politics 🤣

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

now add options and levered etf’s

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

For the godzillionth time, please stop linking record high margin debt with a S&P 500 $SPX crash.

As a % of total market cap, it remains well below prior peaks.

Margin debt tends to rise with stock prices as institutions frequently employ leverage. Not a sign of speculation.

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

the beauty of a gangster tactic is you don’t have to think 🤔

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

'internet culture'

somebody 🔫 me

[Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06]

long space $SPCX
long robotics $BOT
long degeneracy solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112
long finance $HYPE
long internet culture solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

🤑

[Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney]

BREAKING: 𝕏 Money is reportedly launching with 6% APY, up to $10M in FDIC insurance, unlimited 3% cashback and a physical Visa metal card.

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

ze Germans 🇩🇪 also had a 'project'

[Jack @Jackkk]

Mark Zuckerberg reveals he's feeding his cows beer and macadamia nuts

“On the ranch, one of my projects is I'm trying to create the highest quality beef in the world”

“It's very low stakes, I’m not selling it but I'm very into the genetics of the cattle. We're trying to figure out how do you make it so that you basically can deliver the highest density diet to them”

“We started growing macadamia trees because that kind of nut is extremely dense and they will eat a lot so they will put on weight and become fat quicker and become delicious”

“The macadamia nuts have a lot of oil so you need to actually roast that. So now we need to design this whole process to roast the nuts so that way you can give them to the cows”

“You want them to eat more. So then it's like how do you get them to eat more? Well it turns out alcohol is great for that because alcohol induces appetite”

“That's actually why very high-end beef, they're fed beer. But okay, what's the right balance of beer versus water? I don't know. Let's let them choose. They get either as much cold beer as they want or as much room temperature water”

“So now we're brewing all this beer and we're putting it out”

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

Channing Tatum's new biopic looks lit 🔥

[Happy Punch @HappyPunch]

Dustin Poirier got kicked off his flight and tried to fight a cop before getting arrested

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

@robinmarketsxyz @penguin_pmkt what is his profile on polymarket?

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

🤯

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

Andy is a genius

fuck the haters ✌️

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

free speech is when elon's post is always the first one in the 'for you' algo 🤔

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

newsletter shillers larping as 'macro traders' fumbling around trying to do fundamental analysis is cringe af 😬

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

Here's my current view on HYPE. Been working on it for a month or so now and still have more questions than answers. Always learning.

My view is HYPE price is a function of

1. growth in global trading volumes in general =V
Which is composed of
crypto volume growth =VC
Trad FI volume growth = VT

2. Share of trading volume = S and correspondingly SC and ST

Given the HYPE protocol it's pretty easy to make a bull case for say $400 based on both V and S growth.

At $400 further upside seems highly limited in that Hyperliquid would have so much share that further upside is impossible (something like 100x of current revenues) yet the price increase would result in basically flat net coins outstanding or a deflationary inflationary equilibrium.

So I get the bull case.

As of today my assessment is

VC growth expectations are radically too high.
VT growth is boring
Hyper liquid share of SC is pretty darn big already
Hyper liquid share or ST is almost nonexistent so does represents real opportunity.

However ST currently is NOT in anyway relevant to tradfi in any meaningful way and is basically for crypto native tradfi tourists and bucket shop customers wanting high leverage and non regular trading hours trading.

I see no chance that the bucket shop customer base is durable and sustainable nor is it a sizable when compared to the overall market volumes and never will be.

I see high barriers and competitive and regulatory headwinds for ST during regular trading hours AND willingness from existing tradfi vested interest to evolve and meet after trading hours trading volumes so I am very very bearish relative to expectations of real ST market share growth for hyper liquid

At mid 70's I think HYPE is a call option. If none of the ST gains are made the existing volumes support a 30 price. This is where I wanted to buy PURR and missed it.

So it's a call option trading for 40 that could be worth 330 or zero. (Meaning it falls from 70's to 30's if is a dud).

Is that a good buy? Risk forty to make 330. Meh. Would I short it. Nah it's not crazy. I'd love to buy at 35 in the next bear market or short at 100 in a blow off top speculative frenzy even if that occurs in a long term bull trend to 400. For now no position.

Continuing to get smarter (still mostly dumb as I'm sure I will be told as soon as I press send). Innovative disruptive things are worth watching regardless of their future. So I am doing that

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

@the_green_lark what are the best etfs to express this trade and simple heuristic for allocation % & rebalancing?

sorry I am not a kwant so simpler the better

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

@kroneckerdeltaa what is your polymarket profile?

[0xPredictor @0xPredictor]

@penguin_pmkt what is your polymarket profile?