Captain’s Log: Dec 16, 2024
Ships Sailing – Predictions for 2025 🏴☠️
The tides are shifting, and the horizon glows with opportunity and risk. Here’s what the maze reveal for the coming year: 🌊🪙
DeepSeek just proved the 'worthless' GPT wrapper startups are actually the ones with real moats.
A week ago, nothing was more LOW status than being a 'GPT wrapper' startup.
But I think we're learning that's DEAD wrong. Turns out they were just early to the only game that matters
While DeepSeek, Meta, Anthropic and Microsoft battle over benchmark scores, these 'wrapper' companies have been quietly building the only moat that matters: interface loyalty.
Because of how big owning the LLM is for national defense and the economy, the next breakthrough model is always 2 weeks away. DeepSeek launches today, someone else drops a better one tomorrow.
But getting millions of people to make your product part of their daily workflow - that's the real barrier to entry. ChatGPT didn't win because it had the best model. It won because it was dead simple to use. And I think it has staying power because of that.
This is why all those AI startups we dismissed are actually positioned to win. They're not competing on model performance - they're competing on being the default way humans interact with AI.
Frontier models are becoming commodities. User habits aren't. While everyone obsesses over the next architecture breakthrough, the real game is being played in the interface layer. The moat isn't in the model - it's in being the tool people reach for without thinking.
Technology advantage is temporary. Interface lock-in is forever.
Keep shipping those wrappers, my friends.
@rstormsf@alex_pertsev You created Tornado in significant part because of my suggestion that it is something worth building.
It would violate basic honor for me to do that, and then fail to support you in your hour of need.
In Ethereum we protect our own, and uphold our honor.
Milady
@workinpro@Tetranode If we where shitposting about decentralization for years and now we turn into Base just bc its Ok we are fucked. We need something else
@Tetranode Seriously a lot of the problems of ETH to compete with SOL are being working by @megaeth
We should focus on choose some Champions instead of having hundreds of useless L2s that not only distract but also take away a lot of the talent.
MAKE ETH GREAT AGAIN
Learnings:
- If my biggest advantage is that I understand how to use a wallet, I should avoid CEXs. I never use them
- Know when to take profit. Euphoria is always a good dopamine distractor, you have to remain cool.