zec will be worth 5k-20k coin by the end of this cycle yet bears are taking a victory lap on a $300 move
instead of building long term theses on good assets and holding them for 10-100x they’ll be stuck here trading 5min candles for the rest of their lives
ZEC going from $0 to $17bn in less than a decade is important, because Zcash is important for society. A civilization requires three coordination primitives to survive and prosper: communication, computation, and money. Zcash is money. Money for an infinite civilization.
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Massive unlock.
Save securely. Spend when and where you want. Run on infra you trust. No banks.
Onward.
An update on this with NU7 now out!
- The re-org limit got community wide agreement on being 1000 blocks, versus the old 100 blocks!
- The DAA averaging window has gone from 17 blocks to 102 blocks, which improves protection against this attack but more should be done.
- Block time reduction to 20s is currently being proposed, which would also increase the 102 blocks to 128 blocks.
So, I expect these natural difficulty variance swings to dampen significantly. One thing I learned since this post, is that miners are not modellable as 24/7 online, OR daytime online, due to a series of real world complexities.
That post reported seeing -40% to +30% difficulty swings. I expect that to genuinely change to -20% to 15% swings with this, but not the full "2.5x" that pure theory would suggest. Excited to see what the real world bears over the next week =)
And again, this is structural to communism, not some accident. Break the price signal, and your economy cannot produce what it needs; then you get shortages and starvation, and the only way to keep order is to develop a brutally oppressive state.