$ES Daily Plan | April 30
Today’s session saw two-sided trade within the composite high volume area, meaning nothing has changed contextually, as the auction remains in a state of balance awaiting further market-generated information.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7180 (UT1), the low volume node (LVN), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7126 (DT1), the prior multi-day value support.
Failed breakouts from this range remain of interest for fading back to value, a classic mean-reversion strategy in balanced conditions.
Smashlevel: 7150
@PermaFader It took some time to get going, but I liked the action. Every dip below quickly found responsive buyers, keeping yesterday’s afternoon sellers in check.
$ES Daily Plan | April 21
Today’s session formed an inside day after retracing the overnight weakness, where buyers stepped in at our final downside target at 7089 (FDT). Note how today’s session filled the highlighted fill section on the chart.
The auction is now in a 2-day balance, a bullish consolidation in the context of last week’s imbalance. As long as Friday’s gap remains intact, buyers remain in firm control, while a fill and rejection of that gap would be required to shift short-term structure.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7175 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7121 (DT1), potentially opening the door to fill Friday’s gap at 7089.
Smashlevel: 7151
Responsive buyers step in at Thursday's high in $ES (FDT 7089).
Focus now on the highlighted gap area.
Acceptance into Friday's range (above DT1 7121) targets VAL (Smashlevel 7151), while acceptance into Thursday's range (below FDT 7089) brings the 7060 HVN into play as a downside magnet.
$ES Daily Plan | April 20
So far, there has been no sign of this current phase of imbalance slowing down following another sustained true gap up on Friday.
The afternoon pullback low at 7151, lining up with the halfback, FS VWAP, and the value area low (VAL), is the immediate reference point for gauging the auction.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7175 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7121 (DT1), potentially opening the door to fill Friday’s gap at 7089.
Smashlevel: 7151
The S&P 500 has completed one of the fastest round trips in recent history, moving from a near correction of about 9 percent to a new all time high in just 54 trading days. The rebound from the bottom to a new high took only 11 days, making it the fastest recovery from a drawdown of this size since at least 1990.
$ES | $SPX Weekly Plan | April 20-24
🟩 Daily: OTFU
🟩 Weekly: OTFU
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE
The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following last week’s historically one-sided auction that resulted in a new ATH, or whether the market is due for technical fills of structure, a healthy correction. Friday’s afternoon pullback low at 7151 and the true gap at 7089 are two immediate reference points for gauging the auction.
A new ATH printed at 7185.75 after smashing through the prior ATH at 7031, which now serves as a critical area for buyers to defend to keep the breakout intact.
The most bullish response would involve building value above the prior multi-week balance area, signaling acceptance. This would favor upside continuation and continued price exploration in search of value, keeping the current imbalance phase intact.
Failure to do so, implying acceptance back into the prior balance area and the developing YTD value, would put a failed breakout scenario in play, potentially opening the door to a return to value, in this case the 6880 HVN.