PlanB

All models are wrong, some are useful. All my tweets are my opinion. DYOR!

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@dbariturk from now

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

In the next 4 years bitcoin price will:

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@Crypto_f_V down is less than 2x isn't it

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@6117CH Great chart! I've been thinking about BTC/XAU a lot.

The big difference with ETH/BTC chart is of course the BTC/XAU pump in 2023/2024 where ETH/BTC does not have a pump (only 2017 and 2021).
Also maybe the higher BTC/XAU lows, although 10x gold ($43k) might be broken this bear.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Not to bash ETH and correct me if I am wrong, but IMO this ETH/BTC chart is remarkable and has important insights:

- ETH has done worse than bitcoin over last 10 years!! Still at 0.026 BTC, like March 2016.
- No ETH bull market pump in 2023/2024, like it did in 2017 and 2021...

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@OneXdollar @TajoCrypto Sorry LTC is dead and buried

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@SwissHodler @CryptoYGK Harsh, but that is indeed what the chart seems to imply: no long term ETH/BTC uptrend, and no more ETH/BTC bull market pump&dump ...

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@TajoCrypto Ah yes I forgot, in 2022 Ethereum transitioned from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake for climate reasons. Suicide IMO, might indeed explain the missing ETH/BTC bull market pump.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@Web3Eus No true. Bitcoin would be perfectly fine without all fake copies. IMO shitcoins are attacks on bitcoin, with their focus on utility and rug pulls. Shitcoins/crypto gives bitcoin a bad name. Most media& politicians don't even see the difference between crypto and bitcoin anymore.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Reason why bitcoin had a lousy 2025 bull, decoupled from gold & equities, is in bear now ... is the complete implosion of altcoins IMO. Take ETH for example: -70% from its 2021 top and almost back to its 2017 top 📉IMO shitcoins are done, lesson learned, expensive but worth it.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@stoegiii This. The dynamics changed. No more explosion of altcoins, attraction of fresh dumb money, rug pulls, money flow back in bitcoin. It's slower but better now IMO.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@AITweep Lesson is that you can easily copy bitcoin code (and thus create an alternative coin, with some fancy "this is the next bitcoin" marketing bs) but you cannot copy developers (code quality), nodes (P2P, decentralized), miners (security, PoW, hashrate), markets (liquidity) etc

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@HelloCryptoo @RambooSr With your bitcoin you can protect your wealth from debasement (government / central bank money printing that causes inflation). Products like gold and real estate can also provide that service, but they are not digital (i.e. they can not be send over the internet).

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

AI (gemma4:12b) understands bitcoin better than most humans, and certainly better than most traditional media😂

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@RambooSr Bitcoin ($1.2T market cap) is not expensive, in fact it is cheaper than Samsung ($1.4T), Tesla ($1.6T), Facebook ($1.6T), Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@TCW_CAP True, the bar is extremely low. Most traditional media still thinks bitcoin is a bubble, like tulip mania, or money for criminals that is bad for the environment😂
Btw the prompt for this (local) llm was just "explain bitcoin".

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@VasAaen Color is percentage bitcoin in profit on this chart. Earlier charts that you have seen might have been RSI, months until halving, drawdown, MVRV colored. Always look at the color scale.

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✅ below 200w moving average (black line)
🔳 below realized price (grey line $53k) ...

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Bitcoin closed May at $73,568

Market is 50/50 on if Febryary $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue.

IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@Spartacus_HODL Patience, this cycle has 2 more years to go. 500k (250k-1m range) is value, based on scarcity, price can and will differ from value.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

@central_macro Thank you! Same for me, S2F model is my north star for value (price can of course be very different). Scarcity is the reason (for me) why bitcoin is not a bubble, and the reason why I rotated out of gold into bitcoin back then. Btc price < 200wma & realized price = undervalued