We need to change our strategy from “as long as it takes” to “whatever victory takes”. So what would victory take? Let’s compare Poland’s recent procurements to the amount of equipment the world has given Ukraine: 🧵1/4
The discussion that European countries need to intensify preparations for... a possible war with Russia in 3-5 years, which has been initiated by European politicians and publicists, first of all, requires honest answers to three main questions...
First: why bring it to that, if we can finish it with Russia today on a very specific battlefield in Ukraine? Why give the Russian Federation a chance to withstand, to make adjustments in its military production, to update army strategies and tactics taking into account the experience of the big war?...?
Second: is it possible for the countries whose citizens live in the XXI century and perceive the world/life in a completely different way to prepare for a war against the country whose citizens have nothing behind them but hatred, great experience of war crimes and legalized right to mass murder, violence, destruction? Who will have the advantage and willingness to fight? And can we expect a rapid shift in the European collective psyche to be ready to effectively repel an attack by Russian barbarians?..
Third: military tranches/supplies to Ukraine today, supplies of the right amounts of equipment and technological weapons will cost the combined budget of the democracies many times cheaper than investments tomorrow in their own defense actions. And if this is clear, why refuse reasonable and timely investments in Ukraine today?
Simple questions, the answers to which determine the further right or wrong strategy of political actions of many countries and their governing elites...
I just want to point out that the population of Hungary is 10m and the population of the EU is 448m. That means that a country with 2.2% of the EU is blocking the will of 97.8% in supporting Ukraine. The rules of the EU are in desperate need of being changed
Undoubtedly, the winter and the analysis of our own and the enemy's resource capabilities require adjustments in tactics. On the frontline and in the cities, we are already moving to a different tactic of warfare - effective defense in certain areas, continuation of offensive operations in other areas, special strategic operations on the Crimean peninsula and in the Black Sea waters, and significantly reformatted missile defense of critical infrastructure.
This year, we see that the enemy has put more emphasis on drones. The winter won't be easy, given that Russia pays absolutely no attention to international law, conventions and rules of warfare, deliberately attacking civilians on a massive scale, but Ukrainians are prepared, taking into account the experience of the last winter.
Now all our resources are being directed to increasing domestic arms production and speeding up negotiations with partners to increase supplies of critical equipment for the new stage of offensive operations. First and foremost, additional missile defense systems, as well as long-range missiles, drones, and electronic warfare systems.
Thus, to summarize, the stage of the war is clear, the needs are obvious, optimal adjustments to the tactics are being made, and negotiations with partners are active...
In my years as @IDF spox dealing with int. media in Gaza, I've felt that Gazan stringers for major western outlets are at best controlled by Hamas or more likely totally part of Hamas propaganda. So much of what the world knows about Gaza is based on these charlatans.
Four main propagandistic obsessive ideas of #Russia in recent weeks - "frozen conflict", "negotiations", "sanctions don't work", "split in the military-political leadership of #Ukraine"... Let me translate from Russian-propagandistic language to an objective one: "Russia is totally afraid of military defeat and continuation of pressure along the frontline"; "Russia needs only surrender of Ukraine and retention of at least part of the occupied territories"; "resource depletion of Russia is too obvious, military production is depressed, there is a constant search for consumables in #Iran/#DPRK"; "Russia strongly wants to provoke internal political crisis in Ukraine in order not to lose"...
Please stop consciously playing along with primitive Russian propaganda. In fact, there is not and will not be a transition of the war into a protracted format (negotiations on the volume of weapons continue, investments in production are ongoing, strategies are being adjusted); there is not and will not be a negotiation process on Russia's terms, as this does not solve the problem of war, but on the contrary scales it up; sanctions are working and are very effective (but it is necessary to solve the problem of private intermediaries from third countries, partially allowing to circumvent sanctions); the military and political leadership of Ukraine is in constant effective communication on different platforms – the Staff, the military cabinet – and it is extremely interested in applying the most effective technologies for destroying the Russian occupation group...
Once again about the main point...
There are undoubtedly performers who stir up destructive waves of instability in different regions, stage demonstrative mass beatings or killings of civilians, organize coups and riots. All of this is true. But there is a General sponsor of all this 'managed instability,' the main donor of chaos, the basic beneficiary of excesses/wars in different regions, the key destructor of global rules, a stable supplier of weapons, intelligence data, dirty money, military instructors. This is #Russia... It is important for democratic countries to understand: "You can't just treat individual symptoms of the disease (under the conditional name '#terrorizmit'), but you need to treat the disease itself, you need to eliminate the root cause of the disease called the destruction of global rules." This is precisely why it is necessary to ensure the mandatory strategic defeat of Russia, thereby eliminating the possibility of systematically financing instability, wars, escalations, and riots in various regions, including the Middle East, Central #Africa, #Asia...
Буря, безперечно, вже вирує… Передумови, які були сформовані десятиліттями неправильної, «псевдоасимілятивної» політики, толерування беззаконної поведінки агресивних режимів, що порушують глобальні правила, та явного загравання з російськими планами «змінення світового порядку», призвели до сьогоднішніх сумних наслідків і трагедій. Просто зараз пожинаємо дедалі гіркіші плоди: укорінення ненависті до різних етнічних груп із подальшими спробами їх знищення; залишкове руйнування світових інститутів; медійне бравування відвертими звірствами проти цивільного населення та масштабування війни з геноцидним компонентом. #Росія для більшої наочності запустила офіційні антиєврейські погроми. Тому що досі вважає демократичний світ... слабким, терплячим, нездатним протистояти агресії. Необхідно нарешті приймати правильні рішення. Не можна закінчувати компромісами те, що руйнує систему світових відносин. Не можна заохочувати демонстративного вбивцю. Не можна залишати #Рф у нинішньому вигляді. Не можна повторювати 2008 і 2014 роки. Інакше хаосу буде ще більше...
The world changed. The ICC issued an arrest warrant for "strategist" Putin. It's a clear signal to RU elites of what will happen to them & why it won’t be "as before". It's the beginning of RF’s end in its current form on the world stage. It's a clear legal procedure. Just wait.
Mr. President, you and all Ukrainians remind the world of what courage is – every single day.
We have every confidence that you’re going to prevail and we will be with you for as long as it takes.
Рф необхідно зрозуміти вбивчі реалії... Ніяких територіальних компромісів, жодних нових «ліній поділу», ніяких «нови�� регіонів». Війна буде фіналізована правильно – лише на умовах України… Візити лідерів демократичного світу до Києва саме це символізують…
President Joe Biden is in Kyiv. On the eve of the war's anniversary.
To say bluntly: "RF will surely lose. Putin & his entourage will be tried. 🇺🇦 will get all the weapons it needs. No compromises."
Absolutely clear signals. A very specific scenario for the Kremlin’s destruction.
Over the last year, the United States has built a coalition of nations from the Atlantic to the Pacific to help defend Ukraine with unprecedented military, economic, and humanitarian support – and that support will endure.