First Principles Investing

Investing from first principles. AI infrastructure • Semiconductors • Growth • Market research • Trend is your friend

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

CXMT may just be the opening.

YMTC is in pre-IPO coaching, Unitree opens subscriptions on Aug. 10, Enflame has secured approval, and BrainCo has reportedly filed confidentially in Hong Kong. SMEE and LandSpace are unconfirmed.

China’s deep-tech IPO wave may be just beginning.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

📉💥 Weekly Update: CXMT Reprices Memory, KOSPI Capitulates, SOXX Cracks

China rang the IPO bell, and the global memory trade cracked.

CXMT’s blockbuster debut hit SNDK and MU, fed the KOSPI rout and helped push the semiconductor complex through another violent week.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

One more pressure point: duration. US20Y broke back above 5.2%, while the 30Y reached 5.274%, its highest since 2007. Memory now faces both a China-supply narrative. Until yields cool, relief rallies remain vulnerable.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

My base case: a policy corridor, not a clean yen bull market. Intervention flushed shorts, but the US–Japan rate gap still supports USDJPY. Sharp yen weakness may trigger another round; an uncontrolled yen surge risks a carry unwind. Both sides now look constrained.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

Weekly update: USDJPY intervention

The yen just reminded markets that USDJPY has a policy ceiling. USDJPY fell from near 164 to below 158 after Japan intervened and the US later reportedly joined. This was not a normal technical reversal.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

A stronger yen can become a global margin call. Yen-funded carry trades work while the currency stays weak and volatility stays low. A sudden yen rally forces hedging and deleveraging, pressuring equities, credit and other crowded risk trades.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

@asklivermore CNBC aside, Barron‘s had a “good” track record as well

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

$SMH & $SOXX have now lost their neckline. That’s not where you want to see leadership if semi is going higher. Until they reclaim it, the path of least resistance looks lower.

Not everything is weak though. Names like $NTAP continue to show RS. That’s where my attention is.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

@Geight16 https://t.co/VdxMHJajTD

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

$000660 SK Hynix

Lack of a bounce is a bearish signal.

Typically, deleveraging and extreme pessimism are followed by a relief rally.

That didn't happen.

Today's follow-through points to the next support near the 200MA/Feb & Mar highs, around psychological ₩1.0M level.

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Technology is down -12% from its peak. 56 days and counting.

The median Tech selloff drops 25.7% and bottoms in 73 days. This one is only 12% deep and 56 days in. It's one of the shallowest on record.

Every single Technology drawdown in history has recovered to new all time highs. Every one.

If this follows the median path, we're looking at a bottom forming in late August - late September.

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

Don't catch a falling knife!

[First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha]

$000660 SK Hynix

Lack of a bounce is a bearish signal.

Typically, deleveraging and extreme pessimism are followed by a relief rally.

That didn't happen.

Today's follow-through points to the next support near the 200MA/Feb & Mar highs, around psychological ₩1.0M level.