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Trust him tonight🤞
#NBA 2/4 POTD ⭐️
S. Castle o21.5 PA #PorVida
(-124/DK)
Already to 22.5 on DK since posted to VIP, make sure to line shop but this is playable at 22.5.
He's over 13/15 (86%) games STD with Wemby, Fox and Vassell all active averaging 24.8 PA.
Cashed for us on Christmas day, back to him here as he's over in 5/5 straight matchups vs OKC including 4/4 this szn logging: 35, 24, 27, 26, and 28 PA.
OKC let's him go 1 on 1... Really that simple.
Every time he get's down hill they let him and do not help. They have played him this way in every matchup and i don't expect that to change.
They even help off him when others drive and let him shoot wide open CnS threes. Exactly why he's had 5-10 3PA 4/5 of those matchups.
In terms of asts i love his upside there again as he's seen 11 and 13 PotA vs them this szn and made 60 passes last matchup...
2.5 pt spread and a rivalry game, expect healthy mins.
Research 📊 @propsmadness
#Gambling #GamblingTwitter #sportsbettingpicks #playerprops #NBABets #POTD #DraftKings #fanduel #PrizePicks #chalkboard #sleeperpicks #UnderdogFantasy
Homecoming Game🌴
#NBA 2/2 Play #2 🏀
J. McCain o5.5 Pts #76ers
(-105/Fanatics)
With 15+ mins he's over 5/6 without PG averaging 10.3 PPG, one miss was zero pts but he went 0/4. 15+ is his floor here after 23, 24, 15 and 15 mins L4 without PG.
Over 2/3 with 15+ mins with Embiid active but PG out averaging 6.3 PPG, one miss was the 0/4 game.
Elite matchup here vs the Clips who we have targeted for ATB guys, they allow:
- 4th highest ATB FG%
- 5th most ATB FGM
This lines up perfect as he takes 44% of his shots from ATB.
Back home in Cali here, real ball knowers remember his Centennial days, something extra for him to play for tonight.
Research 📊@propsmadness
#Gambling #GamblingTwitter #sportsbettingpicks #playerprops #NBABets #POTD #DraftKings📷 #fanduel #PrizePicks #chalkboard #sleeperpicks #UnderdogFantasy
His Mins Are 🆙
#NBA 2/2 Play #1 🏀
C. Capela o5.5 Pts #AllFire
(+100/DK)
No Adams = 15+ mins for Clint.
Averaging 15.3 MPG with Adams out. Over 6/8 (75%) with 13+ mins + him out averaging 6.4 PPG.
Elite matchup here as 100% of his shots come < 10 FT which INDY allows the 4th most pts there on the 2nd highest Freq%.
Vs paint defenses that are outside the top 13 best Clint's over 6/6 games with 13+ mins averaging 7.7 PPG, Indy is 3rd worst.
Research 📊@propsmadness
#Gambling #GamblingTwitter #sportsbettingpicks #playerprops #NBABets #POTD #DraftKings📷 #fanduel #PrizePicks #chalkboard #sleeperpicks #UnderdogFantasy
SGA Day ⚡️
#NBA POTD 🔒
S. Gilgeous-Alexander o31.5 Pts #ThunderUp
(-115/1.15u DK)
Back to SGA here vs MIN, we took his PA last matchup and he cashed easily. Going just pts here as OKC is banged up and his PotA's are down big time since.
Shai is over 2/2 this szn vs MIN scoring 40 and 35 pts... He is also over his last 12/15 matchups (80%) averaging 33.9 PPG.
This is due to 2 things specifically: They play him 1 on 1, Rudys deep drop.
Due to this they allow the MOST PnR ball handler pts and 4th highest 2P pullup freq%, SGA's game.
Ihart is finally back after his 16 game absence which is huge as his screens are big time for SGA. He is over 8/10 games with Ihart active vs bottom 10 PnR defenses averaging 35.5 PPG and as i said, MIN is the worst there.
6 pt spread as well, this is huge as well cause we will likely see 4Q mins for SGA and when he's able to get them he's over 6/8 games (75%) averaging 35.9 PPG with Ihart active and Jdub out.
Research 📊 @propsmadness
#Gambling #GamblingTwitter #sportsbettingpicks #playerprops #NBABets #POTD #DraftKings #fanduel #PrizePicks #chalkboard #sleeperpicks #UnderdogFantasy
The PERFECT Matchup 💎
#Seahawks vs #49ers 🏈
CMC 6+ Recs/SEA ML ⭐️
(-130/DK)
6+ Recs in 12/17 full games (70%) averaging 6.1 Recs.
9 and 6 recs vs Sea this szn, He is essentially Purdys release valve vs them, If he needs to get ride of the ball quick he's looks for a check down to CMC.
Sea has the 3rd highest pressure rate at 34%, due to this they allow the 2nd lowest average depth of target and MOST Recs to RB's. Check down after check down.
On the road here in the toughest stadium in America at it's peak which it will be tonight, also 7 pt underdogs. QB's are historically known to throw more check downs in these environments/game scripts.
Vs teams that run 70%+ zone he is over 12/14 full games (87%) averaging 6.4 recs. Sea runs it at a 71% clip STD.
Dejuicing with my Hawks here as this should be a comfortable win on our path to the bowl.
Research📊
@propsmadness
#NFLBets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
If he stays on the court, he's green🤞
#NBA Sat Free Play ⬇️
J. Duren o29.5 PR 🚂 #pistons
JD has already gone for 46 and 29 PR vs Indy this szn, this matchup cannot get much better as they're one of the biggest funnels to bigs/the paint:
- 3rd highest < 10 FT Freq%
- 7th highest FG% < 10 FT
- 2nd most Pts to PnR Bigs
- HIGHEST Putback PPP
They also cannot rebound to save their life allowing the MOST Rebs in the entire NBA...
FT's make up 17% of Duren's playtypes which Indy allows the 2nd most FT's per game. We can expect him to get to the line.
They allow the 7th most PR to centers, Vs teams who are bottom 10 there he is over 8/10 non foul trouble games averaging 35.1 PR per game...
Indy on the back end of a road B2B, teams historically play worse defense and their FG% also drops in this situation increasing reb chances.
All around perfect spot for Duren, please just avoid foul trouble...
Research📊@propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
He will SNAG tomorrow 📈
#NBA POTD 12/27⭐️
J. Johnson o9.5 Rebs #TrueToAtlanta
(-120/Fanatics)
10+ rebs the last 18/25 games (72%) averaging 11 RPG. He has not had a line this low in 9 games.
His last 3 matchups vs NY:
- 12 rebs, 17 chances
- 15 rebs, 20 chances
- 15 rebs, 20 chances
He guards OG who spots up corner most of the game which leaves him in perfect backside rebound positioning.
Okongwu gets dragged out of the paint due to kat which helps Jalen even more.
Juicy total at 242.5, will be tons of shots going up increasing reb chances.
Research 📊 @propsmadness
#Gambling #GamblingTwitter #sportsbettingpicks #playerprops #NBABets #POTD #DraftKings #fanduel #PrizePicks #chalkboard #sleeperpicks #underdogfantasy
The PERFECT Matchup👀
#NBAXmas Play #2🎄
R. Sheppard o12.5 Pts #AllFire
(Playable Everywhere)
Great matchup here, lakers allow:
- HIGHEST Spot Up EFG%
- 4th highest EFG% 3P%
- 6th highest PnR BH EFG%
- 4th highest Pullup EFG%
Pretty much the Lakers cannot guard the ways Reed will score. They allow some of the most high quality looks ITL.
Played 41 mins last szn vs LA and had 14 pts knocking down 4 threes. He got up 14 shots as well shooting just 36%.
Vs bottom 10 Spot up defenses and 24+ mins Reed is over 5/7 games (71%) averaging 17.6 PPG.
Just a 2.5 pt spread here and im expecting this game to be highly competitive. With 28+ mins Reed is over this line 10/13 career games averaging 17.8 PPG.
Research📊@propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
Didn't even get a chance here ❌
Lions turn the ball over 6 times, yep 6 times with their szn on the line...
Aaron Jones sees his 2nd biggest work load of the szn in result (18 RA) and the Vikings only throw the ball 16 times (Max had a 29.5 PA line)
Betting on the NFL is simply not for the weak.
Back Jettas on Christmas🎄
J. Jefferson o62.5 Rec Yards #Vikings
JJ looked like himself for the first time in 7 weeks last week when he almost cashed our full ladder. Still fighting to keep his 1K streak alive and now gets and ELITE matchup on Christmas.
Lions allow:
- 3rd most WR RYPG
- 3rd highest YPC to WR's
- HIGHEST avg depth of target
Lions play the 3rd most Man in the NFL at 40% and allow the 11th most Yards/Att there, this is perfect for star wideouts, as you can see:
- Puka 181...
- Adams 71
- CeeDee 121...
- Wicks 94
- Watson 80
- Wandle 156...
Vikings are 8 pt underdogs, gotta back Jettas on Xmas.
Research📊@propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
He COOKS the Thunder 🤫
#NBAXmas Play #1🎄
S. Castle o16.5 Pts #PorVida
(Playable everywhere)
OKC let's him go 1 on 1.
Over last 3/3 matchups easily vs them including 2/2 this szn:
- 24 pts, 12 fga, 6 3pa, 6 fta
- 22 pts, 16 fga, 5 3pa, 2 fta
- 32 pts, 21 fga, 10 3pa, 7 fta
Every time he get's down hill they let him and do not help. They have played him this way the last 3 matchups and i don't expect that to change.
They even help off him when others drive and let him shoot wide open CnS threes. Exactly why he's had 5-10 3PA in those matchups, i don't mind his o1.5 3PM with some nice + money.
With Wemby and Fox both active he is averaging 18.4 PPG and is over 7/10 games. Two of those three misses are 15 and 16, almost always within one bucket.
The volume will be there, just need a good shooting night.
Research: @propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
Back Jettas on Christmas🎄
J. Jefferson o62.5 Rec Yards #Vikings
JJ looked like himself for the first time in 7 weeks last week when he almost cashed our full ladder. Still fighting to keep his 1K streak alive and now gets and ELITE matchup on Christmas.
Lions allow:
- 3rd most WR RYPG
- 3rd highest YPC to WR's
- HIGHEST avg depth of target
Lions play the 3rd most Man in the NFL at 40% and allow the 11th most Yards/Att there, this is perfect for star wideouts, as you can see:
- Puka 181...
- Adams 71
- CeeDee 121...
- Wicks 94
- Watson 80
- Wandle 156...
Vikings are 8 pt underdogs, gotta back Jettas on Xmas.
Research📊@propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
The PERFECT Matchup👀
#NBAXmas Play #2🎄
R. Sheppard o12.5 Pts #AllFire
(Playable Everywhere)
Great matchup here, lakers allow:
- HIGHEST Spot Up EFG%
- 4th highest EFG% 3P%
- 6th highest PnR BH EFG%
- 4th highest Pullup EFG%
Pretty much the Lakers cannot guard the ways Reed will score. They allow some of the most high quality looks ITL.
Played 41 mins last szn vs LA and had 14 pts knocking down 4 threes. He got up 14 shots as well shooting just 36%.
Vs bottom 10 Spot up defenses and 24+ mins Reed is over 5/7 games (71%) averaging 17.6 PPG.
Just a 2.5 pt spread here and im expecting this game to be highly competitive. With 28+ mins Reed is over this line 10/13 career games averaging 17.8 PPG.
Research📊@propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
He COOKS the Thunder 🤫
#NBAXmas Play #1🎄
S. Castle o16.5 Pts #PorVida
(Playable everywhere)
OKC let's him go 1 on 1.
Over last 3/3 matchups easily vs them including 2/2 this szn:
- 24 pts, 12 fga, 6 3pa, 6 fta
- 22 pts, 16 fga, 5 3pa, 2 fta
- 32 pts, 21 fga, 10 3pa, 7 fta
Every time he get's down hill they let him and do not help. They have played him this way the last 3 matchups and i don't expect that to change.
They even help off him when others drive and let him shoot wide open CnS threes. Exactly why he's had 5-10 3PA in those matchups, i don't mind his o1.5 3PM with some nice + money.
With Wemby and Fox both active he is averaging 18.4 PPG and is over 7/10 games. Two of those three misses are 15 and 16, almost always within one bucket.
The volume will be there, just need a good shooting night.
Research: @propsmadness
#NBABets #sportsbettingX #GamblingX
Jettas snaps back ✈️
- 60+ / +106/1u ✅
- 80+ / +239/0.5u ✅
- 100+ / +501/0.3u ❌
+1.95u but so close to that full ladder cash... McCarthy got hurt, probably cash the full thing if he didn't.
The L5 bettors won't like this one 👀
J. Jefferson #Vikings
- 60+ / +106/1u
- 80+ / +239/0.5u
- 100+ / +501/0.3u
(All on DK)
JJ's 1K streak which he's had since he entered the league 5 years ago is in jeopardy. He needs to average 56 YPG the rest of the szn to keep it alive.
Giants run Man at the 7th highest rate. Perfect for star WR's to have big games, they also allow:
- 5th most yard to WR's
- 9th highest Target vs in Man
- 9th highest Explosive Play %
- 10th highest AVG Depth of Target
- 10th most YPT outside
We have seen WR's kill NY:
- Amon-Ra 149...
- Devonte 133...
- Deebo 120...
- Shaheed 114...
- Lamb 112...
- Johnston 98
- McLaurin 96
- Sutton 87
- Rome 86
- Mims 85
- AJ 80
Can't ask for a much better matchup, JJ finally gets back to himself this week.
#nflbets #sportsbettingpicks #GamblingX
Back SGA Tonight‼️
Shai o38.5 PA #ThunderUp
(Available everywhere)
Twolves allow:
- MOST Pts to PnR BH
- 9th most FTM
- 8th most Transition pts
- 7th most Iso Pts
- 5th most Handoff Pts
That makes up for 84% of his play types.
They will always play 1 on 1 coverage, also Rudys deep drop. Even if Rudy gets played off the court which he has a ton vs OKC this doesn't effect the 1 on 1 coverage.
Taking PA over just Pts as we only need 6+ asts to catch value on PA. He's had 6+ asts vs MIN his last 8/8 matchups with 8+ in 7/8.
Shai had 40 pts vs them eariler this szn with 6 asts, here's him with 30+ mins vs them:
- 46 PA
- 42 PA
- 50 PA
- 46 PA
- 40 PA
- 47 PA
- 45 PA
- 33 PA
- 42 PA
- 45 PA
- 39 PA
- 43 PA
Over last 11/12 matchups...
Theres two ways he misses this line. Thats either horrid shooting or MIN blitzing the hell out of him which they're never done.
Research: @propsmadness
#GamblingX #sportsbettingpicks
The L5 bettors won't like this one 👀
J. Jefferson #Vikings
- 60+ / +106/1u
- 80+ / +239/0.5u
- 100+ / +501/0.3u
(All on DK)
JJ's 1K streak which he's had since he entered the league 5 years ago is in jeopardy. He needs to average 56 YPG the rest of the szn to keep it alive.
Giants run Man at the 7th highest rate. Perfect for star WR's to have big games, they also allow:
- 5th most yard to WR's
- 9th highest Target vs in Man
- 9th highest Explosive Play %
- 10th highest AVG Depth of Target
- 10th most YPT outside
We have seen WR's kill NY:
- Amon-Ra 149...
- Devonte 133...
- Deebo 120...
- Shaheed 114...
- Lamb 112...
- Johnston 98
- McLaurin 96
- Sutton 87
- Rome 86
- Mims 85
- AJ 80
Can't ask for a much better matchup, JJ finally gets back to himself this week.
#nflbets #sportsbettingpicks #GamblingX
Back SGA Tonight‼️
Shai o38.5 PA #ThunderUp
(Available everywhere)
Twolves allow:
- MOST Pts to PnR BH
- 9th most FTM
- 8th most Transition pts
- 7th most Iso Pts
- 5th most Handoff Pts
That makes up for 84% of his play types.
They will always play 1 on 1 coverage, also Rudys deep drop. Even if Rudy gets played off the court which he has a ton vs OKC this doesn't effect the 1 on 1 coverage.
Taking PA over just Pts as we only need 6+ asts to catch value on PA. He's had 6+ asts vs MIN his last 8/8 matchups with 8+ in 7/8.
Shai had 40 pts vs them eariler this szn with 6 asts, here's him with 30+ mins vs them:
- 46 PA
- 42 PA
- 50 PA
- 46 PA
- 40 PA
- 47 PA
- 45 PA
- 33 PA
- 42 PA
- 45 PA
- 39 PA
- 43 PA
Over last 11/12 matchups...
Theres two ways he misses this line. Thats either horrid shooting or MIN blitzing the hell out of him which they're never done.
Research: @propsmadness
#GamblingX #sportsbettingpicks