Michael W | Pricing Simulations

Pricing simulations for consumer brands
Quantifying million-dollar pricing outcomes before the market does.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@AlfiFromToasty https://t.co/icp9aveMSX

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

Most e-commerce founders assume rising CAC means something is broken in their marketing.

But often that’s not the real reason.

87% of consumers research online before purchasing.

Which means buyers rarely see just your product — they see you and your competitors side by side.

We worked with a brand whose CAC suddenly spiked.

Same creatives.
Same targeting.
Same funnel.
They spent weeks tweaking ads and landing pages.
Nothing worked.

The real issue?

A competitor quietly introduced aggressive discounts on a few key SKUs.

Because buyers were researching multiple brands, that pricing shift redirected demand.

Using pricing simulations, we modeled buyer decisions and identified which SKUs were vulnerable vs price-resilient.

The solution wasn’t “discount everything.”

Instead we:

• Protected margins on resilient SKUs
• Adjusted pricing where buyers were sensitive
• Recovered lost conversion share

I do a free pricing analysis for a business each day. Comment CAC to get yours analyzed.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@oliverbrocato The pricing advice is spot on. Most brands underprice.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

I modeled 6 brands in the standing desk space.

Most of them are competing aggressively at the mid-tier.

But what’s interesting:

The real margin destruction isn’t coming from competitors.

It’s coming from internal SKU cannibalization.

The $799 SKU is quietly eating the $1,199 SKU.

And brands don’t realize it because topline still looks healthy.

Curious how many teams explicitly map this before launching new tiers.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@joshelizetxe This is the one McGregor promoted?

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@iamshackelford Sometimes CAC rises due to competitor pricing / discounts. 87% of consumers research before buying online.

An ongoing pricing strategy can prevent competitive leakage much better than just optimizing marketing.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

Blanket seasonal discounts look efficient.

They’re often expensive.

Across 163 data points:

Selective SKU discounting outperformed blanket promotions by:
31% on gross margin
17% on revenue

The advantage isn’t discounting.
It’s knowing exactly where to discount.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@GrouponHelpUS I accidentally booked Fairmont Ottawa for May 16 instead of May 17. Fairmont is OK to cancel if Groupon contacts them (I have their confirmation). I’ve rebooked May 17—please help cancel the 16th! Emailed support ref:!00D800Khmy.!500Uj0Z0SjJ:ref 🙏

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@PdotChan @MicheleRomanow @Tapplock @BenjiLock You can actually buy a Tapplock.

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

@heymosef @BenjiLock @Tapplock @SharkTankABC In fact, @SharkTankABC came out after @cbcdragon became successful in Canada. Just ask @kevinolearytv!

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

www.3or2-3.com Updated!

[Michael W | Pricing Simulations @3Or2]

Updating my twitter profile.