"they're only withholding the model for safety as a marketing ploy" is such a dumb take and has been for most of a decade. you can think they're wrong about ai risk but nobody is running gigabrain plans to forgo enormous certain profits now for theoretical future profit
Our highest and most urgent national priority should be AI safeguards. The risks of AI weapons, pathogens, mass unemployment, surveillance, and even extinction must not continue to be largely ignored.
To understand this, you have to realize something. Iryna wasn't Charlie Kirk. She wasn't a political pundit or controversial. She was simply a young White woman coming home from work.
The reason that these are getting vandalized is because they hate White people and like when we get killed. They just want to murder White people. It's that simple
How could AI trained on human data go beyond humans? Well, big human abilities (like going to the moon) are made of lots of small human abilities chained together (like noticing a belief is false, or inventing a new way to look at a problem).
"AIs can't even try to do my job!"
=> "AIs are so terrible at doing my job!"
=> "Why can't the idiots trying to use AI for my job tell the results they're getting are terrible?"
=> "AI is helping me, but that's it; I'm still doing the work."
=> "I'm doing an irreplaceable part of the work with my skills in prompting the AI!"
=> "Huh, the new generation of AIs is getting pretty good if you just ask it. But the AI still makes some mistakes that only I can correct, and nothing can replace my human taste in knowing what to ask for and curating the results!" The ratio of entry-level applicants in the field to entry-level job openings is now getting very bad.
=> Companies are no longer hiring new experienced people. Applicant to job ratios for senior positions are getting bad. You start to hear about experienced people who are looking for another job and cannot find one. Managers are expecting employees who still have jobs to put out three times the work volume by using AI to assist throughput, even if the humans protest that the AI-assisted output is not as good and they're having to cut corners.
I'm surprised we haven't gotten further than the last stage already on translators or graphic artists. It's clearly happening, but slower than I would have thought, even after I tried to adjust my expectations for how slowly the real economy ever adopts anything.
In coding, the later stages are so recent that tech companies haven't gotten past barely beginning to trying to adjust policies to the second-to-last stage of technology.
But there's another generation of AI. And another. And another. And the companies actually start to adapt to the conditions implied by the AI from three generations earlier.
The process does not continue indefinitely. "AIs that do AI research" start going through those stages and some time after that everyone is dead.