Fifth Factor Plots

NCAA basketball graphics, bc college fans deserve nice things too (h/t @dadgumboxscores, @totally_t_bomb)

[chris @dadgumboxscores]

Every Final Four since 1985

Highlights appearances during this span for the 2026 Final Four teams: UConn, Illinois, Arizona, and Michigan

Since 1985 . . .

Most titles
6....UConn
5....Duke
4....North Carolina

Most FF appearances:
14...Duke
12...North Carolina
10...Kansas

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

@banamazing @UNC_Basketball @dadgumboxscores kind of like Elo or RPI, it is a "Simple Rating System" that takes into account schedule strength and margin of victory

it is one of the easiest stats to pull for many teams going back many (>30) years

https://t.co/wHhUKYrgUl

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

I don't know if anyone knows what "The Standard" at @UNC_Basketball is, but the best visual breakdown I've seen is from @dadgumboxscores

https://t.co/Gi2lKomWV3

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

It has only been one game, but this @UNC_Basketball team will need to play differently

So far that seems to be the case:
-18% more makes assisted
-more 3pt balance
-fewer long jumpers

Keep an eye on @dadgumboxscores' https://t.co/qG5Dn8t7gi for more shot charts!

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

Re-loaded these with updated Yahoo bracket picks and...

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

#MarchMadness2025

Bracket Odds: Yahoo! vs. @totally_t_bomb

Tough decision? Might as well lean towards making headway in your pool! Bigger pool? Pick a rare champ to increase your chances!

I expect the Yahoo! odds will shift, so I'll re-share later

Work w/@dadgumboxscores

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

Bracket Odds loading...

Yep, I'll run these back tomorrow night 👍🏻

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

#MarchMadness2024 Bracket Odds!

Using Yahoo! this season, which is favorite heavy (comparing w/@totally_t_bomb's odds)

Tough decision? Might as well lean towards making headway in your pool!

Bigger pool? Pick a rare champ to increase your chances!

Work w/@dadgumboxscores

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

@nuggetpalooza @RL_Bynum Seems like Tuesday!

I guess both play-ins are for Friday sites, so the UNC/SDSU winner will get an extra day of rest

[Bryan Ives @awaytoworthy]

North Carolina’s ranks among the 8 teams in the “Last 4 In” and “First 4 Out”

NET: 1st
WAB: 1st
KenPom: 1st
Non-Con SOS: 1st
Q1 W-L: 8th

Understandable to think the Q1 record would keep them out but the other metrics were strong.

Time to focus on things other Quads.

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

@SethBurn @totally_t_bomb On Thursday, after a long conference tourney

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

From Tar Heels everywhere... Thank you @SethBurn

#NewMetrics

[Seth Burn @SethBurn]

I've run the algorithmic bracket:

https://t.co/8gKzehhtB0

One thing I'd like to note is that every version of WAB or strength of record would have UNC safely in. They are 41st in my average, 42nd per @totally_t_bomb , 43rd per NET WAB. ESPN's BPI SOR has them 38th. They belong.

[Seth Burn @SethBurn]

I've run the algorithmic bracket:

https://t.co/8gKzehhtB0

One thing I'd like to note is that every version of WAB or strength of record would have UNC safely in. They are 41st in my average, 42nd per @totally_t_bomb , 43rd per NET WAB. ESPN's BPI SOR has them 38th. They belong.

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

@totally_t_bomb @SethBurn math + the Heels? You have my attention

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

Probably worth re-sharing this WAB walkthrough, been hearing a lot about it today

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

You may be hearing a lot about this "WAB"... what is it exactly?!?

Here's my attempted explainer, I hope folks find it useful, and apologies in advance for the math on a Friday afternoon 🤓

(also - h/t to @totally_t_bomb's site where I got the data)

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

@buzzbeatpod I don't use Spotify for podcasts, so far all intents and purposes this should be what a non-sub sees 👍🏻

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

A fun look at Bracket Luck from a WAB-y point of view

Basically "how likely is an above average team to have won your two games"

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

Classic, pick the worst version of a counterargument and argue against that 👏🏻��🏻👏🏻

[Seth Davis @SethDavisHoops]

Why do people defending the ACC leave out Virginia?

[Fifth Factor Plots @5th_Factor]

@andreweatherman i definitely agree with this take

also i have yet to see someone properly take into account the fact that leaving out a league's 9 & 10-seeds means that league is more likely to have more wins (yes, v. expectation helps, but it is hard to know how Pitt/Wake would have done)