7平米

あと少しで無職、のはず。習慣飲酒を辞める。

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

昼間それなりに増えてたのに引けたらめちゃ減ってた。
というか急落はjukanのポストが原因なのか？タイミングは合ってるけど…前場にやってくれてたらだいぶ違う展開になってそうなのに。しかもサンディスクは普通に上げてるし…なんなん、、

[Jukan @jukan05]

Apparently, some idiots have suddenly started dumping memory stocks because of this post I made…

Yes, I posted it to warn people not to underestimate YMTC. But that doesn’t mean I was telling anyone to panic-sell.

NAND is still in short supply, and that shortage will persist.

NVIDIA’s CMX racks are currently so constrained by NAND shortages that they cannot even be shipped fully populated. Customers looking to purchase CMX racks are reportedly being asked to source some of the NAND themselves to fill the racks.

I’m not a NAND bear—let me be absolutely clear about that. YMTC is still heavily exposed to the consumer market, and it should not be underestimated. But that does not mean YMTC is going to push the NAND market into oversupply.

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

今日もしっかり安定のウンKOSPIで安心した

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

さすがにウンKOSPIすぎるだろ…
昨日ＳＫハイニクス買って、昼株価見てウキウキしてたのにこれは重症

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

Memory market update:

- Counterpoint forecast a 20% QoQ increase for DRAM.
- Trendforce are more conservative at 13-18% for conventional DRAM and 10-15% for NAND.
- Morgan Stanley raised Q3 PC DRAM forecast to 15-20% increases QoQ from 3-8%.

These aren't perfectly comparable baskets but the main conclusion is that tightness still persists.

SK Hynix CEO and Chairman both confirmed supply tightness post-US IPO, potentially into the 2030s.

- Samsung is reportedly seeking a Q3 DRAM ASP increase of up to 20% QoQ, with LPDDR increases potentially exceeding 20%.

That would be their third consecutive quarterly hike after +90% in Q1 and +60% in Q2. This is above TrendForce's forecast but if price increases stick, $MU and SK hynix would likely follow.

- TrendForce expects Q3 server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18%.

Multi year supply agreements limit price increases for some large volume US cloud customers. Which means customers without LTAs and incremental volumes sold outside those agreements would absorb the largest hikes.

- SK hynix reportedly plan to scrap price caps in its new LTAs so that spot upside flows straight through, while $MU's SCAs carry floors and ceilings.

- TrendForce estimates HBM will consume 22% of the top three suppliers' DRAM wafer input in 2026 while producing only 9% of DRAM bits.

Those figures rise to 30% & 13% in 2027. This disproportionate wafer consumption is the main structural reason why conventional / server DRAM can remain scarce, even as capex increases.

- On HBM4 itself, 2027 contract negotiations land around Q4'26 and Digitimes model HBM4 moving from ~$2/Gb in 2H26 toward $4-5/Gb next year.

- Morgan Stanley suggest NAND remains undersupplied through 2027.

- TrendForce expects mature SLC NAND pricing to rise 120-170% in 2H26, driven by shrinking mature-node capacity & MLC -> SLC migration.

Positive read-through for $SNDK, Kioxia and $MU, while $SIMO offers controller leverage.

- Worth noting Kioxia has filed for a US ADS listing, and $SNDK has raised NAND product pricing double digits while extending the JV with Kioxia to 2034.

- $MU also recently broke ground on a ¥1.5 trillion Hiroshima expansion, targeting advanced DRAM & HBM shipments around summer 2028.

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

soxもナスもまた引けにかけての売られまくりで雰囲気悪い。チャート的にも特にナスは瀬戸際感あり

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

40%

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

UBS: $MU COULD REPURCHASE MORE THAN 40% OF ITS SHARES BY THE END OF 2028

UBS expects Micron to generate over $40 billion in free cash flow through 2028. Once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, the company could potentially use that cash to repurchase more than 40% of its shares at the current price.

[Jukan @jukan05]

Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore said that, after speaking with several purchasing contacts in the data center space last week, the intensity of the memory shortages shows no signs of abating. He added that prices appear to be up at least 25% on a like-for-like basis from 2Q to 3Q.

This is above both Morgan Stanley’s and third-party estimates.

Moore also noted that longer-term concerns that the memory shortage will intensify in 2027 and again in 2028 remain as strong as ever. Morgan Stanley added that there is not enough memory relative to AI requirements and that it does not see this situation changing.

Notable quotes:

“Cloud customers are paying premiums to the expected 2Q price for six-week expedites; do we think those customers are paying those premia to stockpile memory in a warehouse?”

“AI is consuming so much DRAM that there isn’t enough left over for other sectors, and everywhere we look, we see indications that it is a true bottleneck. It’s holding back PC builds and smartphone builds.”

“Memory is not just constrained by AI demand—memory is increasingly one of the major primary constraints on AI demand, along with space and power.”

$MU $SKHY $SNDK

[Jukan @jukan05]

U.S. EYES TOUGHER CURBS ON CHINESE AI

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING STRICTER RULES ON CHINESE AI MODELS AFTER THE LAUNCH OF MOONSHOT AI’S KIMI K3. OPTIONS INCLUDE REQUIRING U.S. HOSTING PROVIDERS TO GUARANTEE THE SECURITY OF CHINESE MODELS AND ACCEPT LIABILITY FOR BREACHES, ALONGSIDE POTENTIAL PROCUREMENT BANS AND EXPORT BLACKLIST MEASURES, AS WASHINGTON RESPONDS TO CHINA’S RAPID AI ADVANCES.

[Jukan @jukan05]

“Nvidia’s CMX is equipped with 576 SSDs, providing a total storage capacity of 9,600 TB. Industry estimates suggest that NAND demand for CMX will surge from 35 million TB this year to more than 100 million TB next year.”

Nvidia’s Rubin CMX will quite literally soak up NAND supply like a sponge absorbs water. To put 100 million TB into perspective, it is roughly equivalent to adding another Apple-sized source of demand to the NAND market.

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

kospiしっかり上値重たかったな…

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

金曜日、キオクシアがS安でやたら拾われてて引けの動きも怪しかったけど、それ以上にsandiskの引けにかけてのクソひどい動きはぶん投げを感じた。出来高を伴う逆さハンマー。
今日韓国が耐えるなら、一旦の底打ちの可能性はそれなりにありそうなマジでﾀﾉﾑ…

[増井 @miraclemasui]

改めて、このテック資金循環やべぇ。

DeepSeek、韓国のレバレッジ型 ETFのボラ、国際決済銀行の最新レポート。最近見たAIハイパースケーラー関連のレポートの中でも、最も直近の情報整理して考察されてる。

ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー

2026/7/9
大和総研

米国：AI 関連投資の持続性を左右する 3 つの 要因
主任研究員 矢作 大祐

https://t.co/C0in8qJyna

①ハイパースケーラー 2の収益化志向の進展
②「循環資金」が内包するリスク
③レバレッジ型 ETF による市場変動の増幅

＞＞「循環資金」の結節点に位置する OpenAI でこうした変調が表面化すれば、その影響は個社固 有の問題にとどまらない。OpenAI 向け需要を成長ドライバーとして織り込んできたハイパース ケーラーや半導体関連企業では、将来の売上見通しや投資計画の見直しを通じて業績への影響 が意識される可能性がある。また、「循環資金」の出し手の 1 つである金融機関やプライベー ト・クレジット、インフラ投資家にとっても、契約の実効性や回収可能性に対する懸念が高ま れば、与信コストの上昇や投融資スタンスの慎重化につながり得る。

＞＞今後の焦点は、AI 活用の実需拡大や収益化の進展が、AI 関連投資を支える需要・資 金・市場構造を安定的に維持できるかにある。AI 関連投資の持続性が問われる中、 「収益化志向」「資金循環構造の脆さ」「市場構造の増幅装置」という 3 つの論点の行方 は、AI 関連投資がソフトランディングへ向かうのか、それとも見直し圧力が強まるの かを判断する上で重要な手掛かりとなろう。

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

・民生品向けの投資は少なく、民生品向け意外にも高止まりの可能性
・米国ADRへの上場（2028.03上期？）
・ベイン売り圧消滅
・2028.03配当＆自社株買い期待
・TOPIXパッシブ買い需要（10月、11月）
・エッジAI需要増の本格化（2030以降？）

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

キオクのポジネガ描き殴りメモ

【−】
・中華LLMによるHSの投資減速懸念
・競合過剰投資による需給緩和懸念
・YMTCの上海IPO
・Appleの中華メモリ採用ムーブ
・米国ジャイアンムーブ
・viasatによる訴訟
・韓国相場パニック＆キオクシア高値掴みメン多数

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

・LTAとAIサーバー向け売上比率増加によるシリコンサイクルの底上げ
・収益構造の変化によるPER訂正
・北上K2第10世代量産化（2027夏頃?）
・競合多額投資にも関わらずHBM＆インフレにより金額のインパクトほどビット供給増えない可能性

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

こういう感じだよね。
これは荒れそうですなあ…HSや米政府の動きにより方向性が全く変わる話なだけに、それがはっきりしないうちは需給に引っ張られそうな。
命をだいじにの局面か…

[Dean W. Ball @deanwball]

Some observations on Kimi:

1. It's a very good model! I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation or anything like that. In agentic coding sessions, it seems pretty much on par with the best public models of Q1 2026. In my fairly limited use, it also seemed very token hungry. It's not obvious to me that this model is actually that cheap to run.

2. I am personally surprised the Chinese state continues to allow the open sourcing of models this good, given potential risks. To be clear, I *myself* might be fine with models presenting this level of marginal risk being open weight, but I am surprised that China is fine with it. I suspect the reason they are is 75% explained by strategic blindness/lack of AGI-pilledness (the CCP is very Yann Lecun-y in its views of AI). The other 25% or so is their lack of compute for customer inference (making China's open-weight strategy an unintended byproduct of US export controls) and the normal Chinese strategy of aggressive exports. For the companies, as opposed to the government, the decision to open source is partially ideological and partially because they are behind, and they know that very few people would pay for sub-frontier models from China.

3. Open-weight models are inherently decelerationist, and I'm continually surprised to see the so-called "accelerationists" so excited about open-weight models. I suspect the reason they are is that they know open-weight models are effectively ungovernable, and they simply like the overall cloak of ungovernability open-weight models create over the whole of AI. It's not a bad strategy; it reminds me of James Scott's recounting of the hill people in "the art of not being governed." Still, in the end, open-weight models deter further AI capex.

4. One probable outcome of an open-weight-model-dominant world is full AI communism, which is precisely what China proposes: rather than a market product, AI is a "public good" which will ultimately be provided by the state as a kind of "digital public infrastructure." This future strikes me as a dystopian hellscape, but I've never met an open-weight models advocate who doesn't ultimately concede this is where things end. You'd be surprised how many 'accelerationists' lobbied me, while I was in government, to support an eleven or twelve-figure federally funded data center so that startups could train models at a subsidy and then give them away for free. There was no other way for AI to progress, they said. Perhaps this is the logical end state of things. Nonetheless, I find myself surprised to see supposed accelerationists excited about such an outcome. I think many of them just don't know what they're doing. Many accelerationists do not view the creation and serving of frontier models as a legitimate business.

5. I would guess that the Trump Administration will at some point realize that their best strategy here would be to create large amounts of regulatory risk around the use of open-weight Chinese models. You don't need to "ban open source" (one of the dumber motifs of AI policy discussion). You just need to direct every agency to issue soft law that creates FUD. "A Federal Reserve Advisory Bulletin found that there may be backdoors in Chinese AI models." It needn't be that well justified. You just create enough regulatory risk that every regulated enterprise backs off. You probably don't want to create so much regulatory risk that you scare off the hyperscalers from serving Chinese models; this will just drive startups to sketchier providers. There's a happy middle ground here. I'd assume they will do some version of this.

6. It's probably true that open-weight models of this capability make the world a bit more dangerous, but not so much more that you'll really notice. At some point the models will be capable enough that you will notice. "A nonliving, invisible, dangerous, and infinitely self-replicating agent escaped from a Chinese lab," you say? Color me shocked.

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

最近Geminiのアホさ加減が加速しているのは気のせいだろうか…

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

@ymaru135 まじすか、色んな意味ですごい銘柄ですね…街中で株の会話なんて聞くことなかったのに、、

[7平米 @7m2FIRE]

これ系で言うと、サイゼリヤで隣の席でキオクシアの会話、近所の銭湯の6月の従業員コラムにキオクシア登場、株の話なんてしたことなかった先輩からキオクシアの話題と今まで経験したことのない靴磨きサイン的なものを感じてはいたんだよな。
だから売ろうなんてことは思えなかったが。

[ymaru @ymaru135]

浅草で歩いてたらキオクシアを現物売りって言うのにすればいいの!?って電話でイライラしながら喋ってる男の人が横を通り過ぎてった...
結構もうきてんなぁ