Bee Bet

Specialise in AFL bets. All free and love the discussion!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Welcome to Bee Bet

I post model-based AFL player-prop bets, primarily disposal markets.

Every selection is posted before the match, staked in units and graded publicly—wins and losses included.

The aim isn’t to win every bet. It’s to consistently find prices that are better than my assessed fair odds.

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Geelong v Carlton — Elimination Final Results

✅ Bailey Smith U32.5 @ $1.91 — 4.0u
✅ Max Holmes U26.5 @ $1.91 — 4.0u
✅ Sam Walsh 29+ @ $2.06 — 3.6u
✅ Tom Stewart U20.5 @ $1.90 — 3.7u
✅ Tanner Bruhn U22.5 @ $1.88 — 3.6u
✅ Lawson Humphries U19.5 @ $1.99 — 3.5u

Game result: 6–0
Staked: 22.4u
Game P/L: +21.06u
ROI: +94.0%

A perfect sweep on the Friday night card. Couldn’t ask for much better than that. 🐝

🐝 Finals Week 2 so far: 8–1 | 32.1u staked | +25.06u | +78.1% ROI

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Geelong v Carlton — Elimination Final

Bailey Smith U32.5 @ $1.91 — 4.0u
Projection: 28.2

Max Holmes U26.5 @ $1.91 — 4.0u
Projection: 22.6

Sam Walsh 29+ @ $2.06 — 3.6u
Projection: 31.2

Tom Stewart U20.5 @ $1.90 — 3.7u
Projection: 17.4

Tanner Bruhn U22.5 @ $1.88 — 3.6u
Projection: 18.4

Lawson Humphries U19.5 @ $1.99 — 3.5u
Projection: 16.9

A six-play card for Friday night, with the model particularly strong on the Geelong unders.

Total exposure: 22.4u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

@KyneticP2 Cheers mate! Sorry I missed this!

I use a custom model that blends historical data, role/usage, recent performance and matchup context, then applies a few of my own adjustments. I keep the exact methodology and weightings private, but I’m constantly testing and refining it.

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Melbourne v Carlton — Wildcard Final extra

Oliver Florent U24.5 disposals @ $1.90 — 3.5u

Projection: 22.2 disposals

Florent projects 2.3 disposals below the line, with the model giving the under a 67.7% chance compared with the market’s 52.6%.

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Melbourne v Carlton — Wildcard Final

Jake Bowey U24.5 @ $1.86 — 4.0u
Projection: 20.55

Koltyn Tholstrup U20.5 @ $1.85 — 4.4u
Projection: 14.60

Daniel Turner U14.5 @ $1.91 — 3.6u
Projection: 11.80

Tom Sparrow U23.5 @ $1.89 — 3.8u
Projection: 19.05

Kysaiah Pickett U24.5 @ $1.85 — 3.7u
Projection: 20.49

Ed Langdon U19.5 @ $1.97 — 3.6u
Projection: 16.29

A heavy under card for Melbourne, led by Tholstrup’s 5.90-disposal gap to his line.

Total exposure: 23.1u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

@ag4_hunnid Second half of last game Jagga got the tag V Geelong. Think there’s a chance of that again.

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Geelong v Carlton — Elimination Final

Bailey Smith U32.5 @ $1.91 — 4.0u
Projection: 28.2

Max Holmes U26.5 @ $1.91 — 4.0u
Projection: 22.6

Sam Walsh 29+ @ $2.06 — 3.6u
Projection: 31.2

Tom Stewart U20.5 @ $1.90 — 3.7u
Projection: 17.4

Tanner Bruhn U22.5 @ $1.88 — 3.6u
Projection: 18.4

Lawson Humphries U19.5 @ $1.99 — 3.5u
Projection: 16.9

A six-play card for Friday night, with the model particularly strong on the Geelong unders.

Total exposure: 22.4u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Fremantle v Hawthorn — Qualifying Final Results

❌ Matthew Johnson 18+ @ $2.18 — 3.5u
✅ Neil Erasmus 17+ @ $2.19 — 3.1u
✅ Karl Worner 17+ @ $2.23 — 3.1u

Game P/L: +4.00u

Erasmus and Worner both get there at better than $2.00, giving us a strong 2–1 start to Finals Week 2.

🐝 Finals Week 2 so far: 2–1 | 9.7u staked | +4.00u | +41.3% ROI

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Fremantle v Hawthorn — Qualifying Final

Matthew Johnson 18+ disposals @ $2.18 — 3.5u
Projection: 20.5

Neil Erasmus 17+ disposals @ $2.19 — 3.1u
Projection: 18.2

Karl Worner 17+ disposals @ $2.23 — 3.1u
Projection: 18.6

Three Fremantle milestones at plus money to open Finals Week 2.

Johnson carries the strongest projection gap at +3.0 disposals vs 17.5, while Erasmus and Worner both clear their respective milestone thresholds in the model.

Total exposure: 9.7u

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Fremantle v Hawthorn — Qualifying Final

Matthew Johnson 18+ disposals @ $2.18 — 3.5u
Projection: 20.5

Neil Erasmus 17+ disposals @ $2.19 — 3.1u
Projection: 18.2

Karl Worner 17+ disposals @ $2.23 — 3.1u
Projection: 18.6

Three Fremantle milestones at plus money to open Finals Week 2.

Johnson carries the strongest projection gap at +3.0 disposals vs 17.5, while Erasmus and Worner both clear their respective milestone thresholds in the model.

Total exposure: 9.7u

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

Solid wildcard. Bring on the real finals!!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Melbourne v Carlton — Wildcard Final Results

❌ Jake Bowey U24.5 @ $1.86 — 4.0u
✅ Oliver Florent U24.5 @ $1.90 — 3.5u
❌ Daniel Turner U14.5 @ $1.91 — 3.6u
✅ Ed Langdon U19.5 @ $1.97 — 3.6u
✅ Kysaiah Pickett U24.5 @ $1.85 — 3.7u
✅ Koltyn Tholstrup U20.5 @ $1.85 — 4.4u
✅ Tom Sparrow U23.5 @ $1.89 — 3.8u

Game result: 5–2
Game P/L: +9.31u

A big finish to the weekend, with five of the seven plays getting home.

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Melbourne v Carlton — Wildcard Final extra

Oliver Florent U24.5 disposals @ $1.90 — 3.5u

Projection: 22.2 disposals

Florent projects 2.3 disposals below the line, with the model giving the under a 67.7% chance compared with the market’s 52.6%.

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Western Bulldogs v Collingwood — Wildcard Final Results

✅ Bailey Dale U27.5 @ $1.85 — 3.5u
❌ Ned Long 17+ @ $2.22 — 3.2u
✅ Joel Freijah 20+ @ $2.15 — 3.1u

Game P/L: +3.34u

A solid 2–1 start to Wildcard Finals, with Dale and Freijah both getting home. Devastated to miss long by 1

🐝 Wildcard Finals so far: 2–1 | 9.8u staked | +3.34u | +34.1%

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Western Bulldogs v Collingwood — Wildcard Final

Bailey Dale U27.5 disposals @ $1.85 — 3.5u
Projection: 24.69

Ned Long 17+ disposals @ $2.22 — 3.2u
Projection: 18.17

Joel Freijah 20+ disposals @ $2.15 — 3.1u
Projection: 20.96

Three positions to open Wildcard Weekend — Dale projects 2.81 below his line, while Long and Freijah both offer plus-money milestone value.

Total exposure: 9.8u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Melbourne v Carlton — Wildcard Final

Jake Bowey U24.5 @ $1.86 — 4.0u
Projection: 20.55

Koltyn Tholstrup U20.5 @ $1.85 — 4.4u
Projection: 14.60

Daniel Turner U14.5 @ $1.91 — 3.6u
Projection: 11.80

Tom Sparrow U23.5 @ $1.89 — 3.8u
Projection: 19.05

Kysaiah Pickett U24.5 @ $1.85 — 3.7u
Projection: 20.49

Ed Langdon U19.5 @ $1.97 — 3.6u
Projection: 16.29

A heavy under card for Melbourne, led by Tholstrup’s 5.90-disposal gap to his line.

Total exposure: 23.1u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Western Bulldogs v Collingwood — Wildcard Final

Bailey Dale U27.5 disposals @ $1.85 — 3.5u
Projection: 24.69

Ned Long 17+ disposals @ $2.22 — 3.2u
Projection: 18.17

Joel Freijah 20+ disposals @ $2.15 — 3.1u
Projection: 20.96

Three positions to open Wildcard Weekend — Dale projects 2.81 below his line, while Long and Freijah both offer plus-money milestone value.

Total exposure: 9.8u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

Good way to finish the season. More action to come in the finals!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 West Coast v Hawthorn — Result

❌ Jai Newcombe 28+ disposals @ $2.13 — 3.4u

P/L: −3.40u

Newcombe misses the final play, but Round 24 still finishes strongly.

🐝 Round 24 FINAL: 6–3 | 33.2u staked | +9.25u | +27.86% ROI

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 West Coast v Hawthorn — Round 24

Jai Newcombe 28+ disposals @ $2.13 — 3.4u

Projection: 29.9 disposals
Buffer: +2.4

• Model: 68.4%
• Book: 46.9%
• Edge: +21.5%
• Fair odds: $1.46
• EV: +1.56u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Sydney v North Melbourne — Result

✅ James Rowbottom U21.5 disposals @ $1.88 — 4.3u

Profit: +3.78u

Rowbottom gets the job done as well, landing one of the strongest model edges on the Round 24 card.

🐝 Round 24 so far: 6–2 | 29.8u staked | +12.65u

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Sydney v North Melbourne — Round 24

James Rowbottom U21.5 disposals @ $1.88 — 4.3u

Projection: 16.7 disposals
Buffer: 4.8 under

• Model: 83.1%
• Book: 53.2%
• Edge: +30.0%
• Fair odds: $1.20
• EV: +2.42u

The strongest model edge of the Sunday card.

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Essendon v Port Adelaide — Result

✅ Joe Richards U24.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.7u

Profit: +3.22u

Richards gets the under home and keeps the Round 24 momentum rolling.

🐝 Round 24 so far: 5–2 | 25.5u staked | +8.87u

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Essendon v Port Adelaide — Round 24

Joe Richards U24.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.7u

Projection: 20.8 disposals
Buffer: 3.7 under

• Model: 77.0%
• Book: 53.5%
• Edge: +23.6%
• Fair odds: $1.30
• EV: +1.63u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 West Coast v Hawthorn — Round 24

Jai Newcombe 28+ disposals @ $2.13 — 3.4u

Projection: 29.9 disposals
Buffer: +2.4

• Model: 68.4%
• Book: 46.9%
• Edge: +21.5%
• Fair odds: $1.46
• EV: +1.56u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Sydney v North Melbourne — Round 24

James Rowbottom U21.5 disposals @ $1.88 — 4.3u

Projection: 16.7 disposals
Buffer: 4.8 under

• Model: 83.1%
• Book: 53.2%
• Edge: +30.0%
• Fair odds: $1.20
• EV: +2.42u

The strongest model edge of the Sunday card.

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Essendon v Port Adelaide — Round 24

Joe Richards U24.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.7u

Projection: 20.8 disposals
Buffer: 3.7 under

• Model: 77.0%
• Book: 53.5%
• Edge: +23.6%
• Fair odds: $1.30
• EV: +1.63u

Good luck!

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Geelong v Richmond — Results

✅ Toby Nankervis 19+ @ $2.19 — 3.3u
✅ Lawson Humphries U22.5 @ $1.87 — 3.7u

Game P/L: +7.15u

A clean sweep — both selections get home and turn Round 24 firmly positive.

🐝 Round 24 so far: 4–2 | 21.8u staked | +5.65u

[Bee Bet @863Cool]

🐝 Geelong v Richmond — Round 24

Toby Nankervis 19+ disposals @ $2.19 — 3.3u
Projection: 20.8

Lawson Humphries U22.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.7u
Projection: 19.3

Nankervis offers value at better than even money, while Humphries has a 3.2-disposal cushion to the under.

Good luck!