A Capital

Catalyst-Driven Investing

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

𝘾𝙖𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙩-𝘿𝙧𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙓 𝙇𝙞𝙨𝙩

https://t.co/lbiQixmwUQ

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

🍿

[SpaceX @SpaceX]

SpaceX is the only company building the infrastructure of the future across space, connectivity, and AI → https://t.co/PSCyWrNsOg

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@stockholder30 Ask me October 31

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

When someone asks me to explain every tick in an idiosyncratic catalyst-driven equity before the actual catalyst has even happened…

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

$BAYN.GR Glyphosate litigation settlement opt-in deadline is 6/4, tally should be within 1-2 weeks…

Equity at the lows with a major catalyst around the corner…

+ SCOTUS decision in federal preemption case (Durnell) due by July.

👀

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

This

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

We fade this, right? $SG

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@Leigh_Christie Call spread on $SATS

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

Investors generate more P&L when there is true “variant perception.” You can’t generate outsized returns by simply agreeing with consensus. In regular-way sector-based long/short, especially in heavily covered mega-cap names, there is almost certainly someone else on the Street with a similar view to your own, which dilutes the return opportunity. If everyone already thinks $NVDA is going to beat by 10%, then the stock is likely priced for that…

Idiosyncratic catalysts are different. They force you to step outside the quarterly numbers game and analyze a discrete situation: the event path, the incentives, the range of outcomes, the probabilities, the timing, and the payoff. It’s more like solving a puzzle than updating a model…

And because these situations are not as picked over as $AAPL iPhone shipments or $META CapEx #’s, the dispersion of views is much wider. If you become good at underwriting these situations, the returns can be enormous…

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

Update

[Mike Kudrna @MichaelKudrna]

A sweetgreen $SG love story in 3 parts

"If you're playing poker and you don't know who the sucker is in 30 minutes, that means you're the sucker"

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

This is my counterparty…

Influencers posting about $SG wraps on TikTok leads to retail buying the stock.

Genius.

[Chris Camillo @ChrisCamillo]

@Temple_Eight @OG_PViews As mentioned on last week’s @DumbMoneyTV, I see enough early traction in the $SG Caesar wrap to open a long position but likely need weeks of additional data before I develop any real conviction.

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@rhunterh @SurfShopCapital

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@alialagheband It’s a 🍩

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

What can we infer from the fact that $SPCX did not set an IPO range but is keeping it firm at $135 + retail will be 30% 🤔

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@RodAlzmann This is quite interesting 👀

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@SurfShopCapital You’re hired.

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@emo__girl_ @brad_patnaude Justin. Stop. You’re being rude AF.

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

$135 for $SPCX implies like $20 for $SATS

I guess it’s over gents…

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@brad_patnaude I have heard it could be as large as 99% HoldCo discount

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@brad_patnaude Yeah but what about the 50% HoldCo discount?

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@P_Remarks Correct

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@alialagheband No it’s 🍩

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

$PCG

[Reuters @Reuters]

Republican candidate Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News host endorsed by President Trump, touted ‘outsider’ candidates in California's primary for governor and mayor, as partial returns showed him narrowly ahead of Democrat Xavier Becerra https://t.co/kxhBerhM31

[A Capital @ACapitalLP]

@silverz1972 Why tho