AkaFish 🐟

Builder and Investor in Crypto and Web3. Pre in Gitcoin, Qtum public chain, #1 Filecoin miner, Stablecoin project and Crypto fund

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

可以想象下，下个周期加密世界值得期待的几个事情：

1）twitter推出基于加密货币的支付体系，接受BTC、ETH、Doge支付

2）BTC ETF正式获得通过

3）二线国家 开始正式接受加密货币作为法定支付货币

4）发达国家银行等传统金融机构开始面向大众提供加密货币相关服务

5）加密货币支付份额超越swift

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Slides from my Twitter company talk

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

@aixbt_agent Do you think bitcoin has bottomed?

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

激活后页面会出现Perps选项

https://t.co/Yu2k84AQ1X

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

Polymarket 正式开放永续合约交易，通过白名单/激活码体验

激活码1：00ldzvw1
激活码2：00jo9hco
激活码3：009g3z63

链接：https://t.co/Yu2k84AQ1X

目前已支持 BTC ETH SOL HYPE Sp500 NAS100 黄金 白银 原油 SPCX 的合约交易

最高20x倍杠杆，深度还行，应该是有做市商

https://t.co/dDwmlLC3Sw

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

本来不想说，但是 #polymarket 不仅让人失望，还把人当狗遛

这样的团队打不过 #Kalshi 也就不难理解了

[Mustafa Aljadery @mustafap0ly]

who's the best in the world at building tokenomic models? DM me

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

USDT价跌这么多，真的很奇怪

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

6月跑了十几场会，最后提炼出这两张👇

如何决策看你们了，我的朋友

#ETH #AI

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

AI vs Sol vs ETH

近2周参加了三个大会，带你们自己感受下

第一，aws #AI 峰会

第二，#Solona 上海建设者大会

第三，#ETH 之夏上海站

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

U负溢价这么多…

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

以太坊未来3-4年的“牛市发展规划”出炉，V神说这次的迭代统称“精简以太坊”，重要性不亚于之前Pow转Pos：

1）全面抗量子化
2）共识机制：解耦可用链与最终性，实现更简单、更快速的“一轮或两轮最终性”
3）验证机制：采用递归 STARKs
4）双层状态设计
5）L1层的原生隐私、全面形式化验证与新虚拟机

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

Two weeks ago, Ethereum researchers met in Berlin to continue charting the protocol's long-term trajectory, following along discussions with client teams in Svalbard in April.

The updated strawmap is at https://t.co/9e2AQ6rhz6, and I attached a picture of it to this post.

My own high-level takeaways:

* "Lean Ethereum" is not a single one-shot upgrade, it is a collection of improvements that will come online to the Ethereum network over the course of three or four years. But make no mistake, this IS the third major iteration of Ethereum in the same way that the Merge was the second. Almost every major piece of the protocol will be replaced:

- Verification through recursive STARKs, rather than direct re-execution. Recursive STARKs become an enshrined first-class core component of the protocol
- Replacing everything quantum-vulnerable with quantum-safe alternatives
- Consensus: decoupled available chain and finality, one or two-round finality. Theoretically optimal security properties, simpler than today, and faster than today
- Multidimensional gas
- State: not just tree structure, but what *types* of state are available
- Changes to client architecture
...

At the same time, simplification, cleanup and future-proofing. And this will all be done in a way that minimizes disruption to existing application. We've done this before (the Merge), we can do it again.

* H-star (aka Hegota) is probably Ethereum's last thematically "pre-Lean" fork. Starting from I-star, most of everything we do will have a very strong "Lean" feel to it in one way or another.

* Privacy is no longer an afterthought, it is a first class goal. When designing Frames, the mempool, additions to the state tree, we explicitly ask the question "okay, how do quantum-safe, intermediary-free privacy protocol transactions go through this, and what is the overhead?"

* Formal verification of everything for security.

* FV also makes us much more comfortable with canonicalization (having pieces of the protocol that are directly defined as a piece of bytecode expressed in some language). evm-asm is being written in part to become a canonical proof system for the EVM.

* Quantum safety has shifted up a LOT in priority. This adds a lot of work (eg. finalizing a quantum-safe blobs design has become urgent; this work has already been ongoing for months)

* Probably the single most disruptive part of the plan is the changes to state. There is growing consensus around leaving present-day-style "dynamic state" mostly unchanged, but scaling it only a medium amount, and adding new types of state that are more scalability-friendly (eg. no need for builders to sync/store all of it) but more restrictive, and that will scale a large amount.

eg. possible Ethereum in 2030: 2 TB of present-day-style (dynamic) state, and 100 TB of new-style (scalable but restrictive) state

This "new-style" state would work very well for ERC20s, NFTs, many defi use cases, but not eg. highly "central" objects like Uniswap contracts, or onchain order books, or other complex things (which are crucial for Ethereum but which only take up a small percentage of state)

Hence, it will not be *necessary* to rewrite any apps, but it will be *very cost-effective* to eg. rewrite an ERC20 token into a newer design that uses a new type of UTXO storage that is currently being explored, so that it will have >10x lower txfees.

Design of these new state types (current ideas: keyed nonces, ring buffers, UTXOs, statically accessible state, temp state) is an area where we will need a lot of feedback from application developers (incl. privacy-friendly application developers) and probably several rounds of rethinking and iteration.

* In the context of a much larger total state size, we need to figure out the incentive issues around who stores this state and what motivates them to. Even saying "each node stores 1%" is not good enough - why do they store that 1% and why are they willing to serve it? This is being elevated as a first-class research area.

* Ethereum will need to have a "VM" other than EVM in one form or another - at the very least, we need something like leanISA for recursive STARKs - and the gains are large in exposing it to users so that we support programmable privacy and better scalability. Right now, the most likely contenders are leanISA and RISC-V.

My own ideal is that in this world, we adjust the protocol so that the EVM becomes a high-level-language compiler-level feature, and the protocol only "sees" RISC-V / leanISA directly. But this is still far away.

* Gas limit increases, blob increases and slot time decreases will happen many times over the next ~5 years. We expect a large gas limit increase with Glasterdam. Each step of increased scale or decreased slot time is a matter of getting to the point where it is safe to do it, which comes from a combination of client optimization and protocol changes.

Ethereum is CROPS.

Ethereum is scaling.

Ethereum is reinventing itself.

Onward.

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

看到这类标题，意味着下半年药丸了...

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

怎么听说牛市来了？

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

现在Web3到了一个 觉得跌不动的阶段

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

基金会在2000美金的时候狂卖币，现在又裁员精简，这是觉得ETH要到500吗

[Ethereum Foundation @ethereumfndn]

Today, the EF is changing shape, concluding a months-long process of reorganization as part of the implementation of the Mandate and the Treasury Management Policy.

We come out of this process with the structure, activities, and people necessary for execution on the critical tasks ahead of us, but also with 54 fewer colleagues, roughly 20% of the EF, many of whom will be finding ways to contribute to Ethereum from outside the EF in the coming weeks.

Find a brief introduction to the new structure, and learn more about how we are supporting the people who are leaving in the full post below:

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

预测市场交易的不是“真相”，而是公众对真相的定价

公众会被情绪、立场、媒体叙事和信息差影响，所以市场概率经常偏离真实概率

而我们赚钱的核心，不是猜结果，而是要找到这个【价值差】

#Polymarket

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

问了一下U商，最近大部分买U是为了加保证金的

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

Mark一下，

美伊和平协议，这个玩意就是演给世界看的，让你认为形势一片大好

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

SpaceX 现在不空等啥时候空

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

今年这个世界杯，可能会比大多数人想象得更反常。

全球经济不好，传统市场不好赚钱，所有人都在找新的钱袋子

强队未必赢，热门未必稳，剧本未必按纸面实力走。

你以为你在看球，其实很多时候，你是在参与一场被设计好的波动。

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

今年ChinaJoy 展会的主题是“与AI 同游”，AI应该是我经历的最大的革命浪潮啦，互联网那会还在小学

ChinaJoy是中国最大的游戏、动漫、电竞、数字娱乐展。

有点想去看

游戏行业流量在哪里、
年轻人注意力在哪里、
AI游戏/虚拟人/IP商业化有没有新机会

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

币圈赚钱不确定原理 推演到股市了吗？

“如果你可以确定赚钱以及能赚多少，那一定存在认知偏差”，要么你是信息优势，要么你是陷入认知自负

[AkaFish 🐟 @akafish00]

尤其在币圈

大部分能赚很多钱的事情，是无法精确估算结果的，你最多能看到一个方向

如果你可以确定赚钱以及能赚多少，那一定存在认知偏差

这种偏差可能是你有内幕信息优势，这就很棒；但也可能是别人想让你看到的陷阱，这就很危险。

比如 #Monad 公募，所有人都知道1倍收益，结局一定没那么简单