Ali Vaez

Deputy Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program @CrisisGroup; Adjunct Prof @Georgetown; Ex @FPI_SAIS @UNDPPA @FAScientists @Harvard

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

If the U.S. and Iran allow even this modest understanding to disappear, the next cease-fire will become merely the pause before the next battle — and war, rather than diplomacy, could well become the permanent condition. My latest for @NYTOpinion

https://t.co/eLQi0nWC03

[U.S. Embassy Amman @USEmbassyJordan]

July 22, 2026 - Worldwide Caution for U.S. Citizens

The Department of State advises Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution.

Location: Worldwide 

Event: Due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation.

Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise caution and heightened vigilance and should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions. Some airlines in the region have postponed resumption of earlier flight schedules; others have cancelled some routes.

Americans outside the Middle East should reconsider travel to and through the region. Those who do travel to or from the region should monitor information about airport and airline operations.

U.S. diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted. Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world, including U.S. businesses and other institutions.

Actions to Take

Americans traveling in or through the region should check with their air carriers to make sure their flights are still scheduled.
Contact your airline directly for flight change details if your flight is affected.
Monitor embassy and consular security alerts and the news for breaking developments.
Follow the instructions of local authorities.

Enroll at https://t.co/Ot4N63tt9f to receive the latest security alerts and follow the "U.S. Department of State - Security Updates for U.S. Citizens" channel on WhatsApp or @TravelGov on X. When planning travel, carefully read the Travel Advisory and detailed information for your destination, and any recent alerts at https://t.co/AYjchD72xX.

[Lara Seligman @laraseligman]

The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. W @shelbyholliday https://t.co/o7TUgk6B3W

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

The war has shown both Washington and Tehran “that neither government can deliver a knockout blow to the other at an acceptable cost—and that unmanaged hostility has become too costly and perilous,” writes @AliVaez.
https://t.co/Fv7Da5qY45

[POLITICO @politico]

Poll: Trump’s MAGA base is souring on his Iran war https://t.co/VgyWZYNM9T

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

From "help is on the way" to "we will bomb critical infrastructure" over a Strait that wasn't closed before this war began…

[Reuters @Reuters]

Hormuz vessel crossings fall further as security concerns linger https://t.co/eQmTFiXmGK https://t.co/eQmTFiXmGK

[Crisis Group @CrisisGroup]

🗒️NEW ANALYST'S NOTEBOOK | Hamas Elects New Political Chief as It Navigates Crumbling Gaza Ceasefire

@aj_iraqi reflects on Khalil al-Hayya’s election as the head of Hamas’ political bureau and the challenges that await him.

https://t.co/w4Z1gUJJTJ

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

As oil prices rise, Chinese refiners and traders (both private and state-owned) have today offered Middle Eastern barrels they bought a few weeks ago for resale.

Chinese oil imports July 1-20 are running below June average, ~50% below pre-war levels. No sign of pick up yet.

[Iran Nuances @IranNuances]

#Iran's Larak Island was hit by a US missile strike at 14:48 local time, triggering a big explosion.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Donald Trump may hate to hear it, but Barack Obama was right about avoiding “stupid shit” https://t.co/YFOIkZE8a4

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

“A stable U.S.-Iranian relationship would eliminate one of the main engines of escalation in the Middle East, reducing the risk that every local conflict turns into a regional war,” writes @AliVaez.
https://t.co/Fv7Da5qY45

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

Follow my Iran Policy Watch newsletter on Substack. Second edition is out now: Timeline, sanctions tracker, and why the U.S.-Iran tensions risk becoming a forever war ⬇️
https://t.co/Ei3osvzQWw

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

💯

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

In short:

1. Deep underground facilities, such as Pickaxe Mountain, are essentially invulnerable to nonnuclear weapons (and, no, the U.S. will NOT use nukes).

2. The U.S. can attack, and perhaps collapse, tunnel entrances, but that isn't a game changer. (13/13)

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

🧵on the essential invulnerability of Pickaxe Mountain. We'll cover Young Penetration's equations, the GBU-57, and the Battle of Yavin.

[Sara Massoumi @SaraMassoumi]

🔴وضعیت جاری میان ایران و آمریکا؛ سناریو مطلوب اسرائیل

اسموتریچ، وزیر دارایی اسرائیل، پس از نشست طولانی امنیتی شب گذشته گفت: «دولت اسرائیل هیچ علاقه‌ای به پیوستن به رویاروییِ محدود و کنترل‌شده میان ایران و ایالات متحده ندارد؛ وضعیت کنونی، بهترین سناریوی ممکن برای ماست.»

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The US allies in the Persian Gulf region are increasingly frustrated with President Trump's attacks on Iran - and their effectiveness.

But they are split on what to do next: some believe the answer is a much wider war; others want peace negotiations.

https://t.co/5NNWUNhrdI

[Jared Szuba @JM_Szuba]

Just now — Trump suggests the US will intervene if the Houthis try to close the Bab Al-Mandeb.

“If something like that happens, we take care of it,” Trump says. “We’ve done it with the Houthis before.”

“If there is something like that, we’ll just have to take care of business.”

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Trump says the U.S. will be hitting Pickaxe mountain in Iran "pretty soon very heavily and there is nothing they can do about it"

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

@MairavZ @MazMHussain Nope

[Ali Vaez @AliVaez]

The timing of these leaks is no accident. They appear designed to prompt more escalation to foreclose any pathway back to diplomacy and lock both sides into a conflict that becomes not a means to an end, but a forever war.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Israel believes Iran moved thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep inside a mountain last fall, Israeli and U.S. officials say, a development that would heighten concerns that Tehran could reconstitute its nuclear program. https://t.co/Ulufwe1ttJ

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Trump says Iran wants "desperately" to meet but stresses that "until they don’t meet in a meaningful way we are not interested"