Things come her way and she does not stop them;
Things leave and she lets them go.
She has without possessing,
And acts without any exceptions.
When the work is done, she takes no credit.
That is why it will last forever.
the strait of hormuz is in a quantum superposition of open and closed that only collapses when you try to take a tanker through yourself and see if you get shot at
We have entered the age of commodities
Every commodity cycle goes through the same stages
- High prices lead to overinvestment
- Which leads to increased supply and lower prices
- Lower prices lead to underinvestment
- Underinvestment leads to higher prices
We are at the underinvestment -> higher prices stage of the cycle
Position accordingly
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation.
Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :)
Two words come to mind:
Hard Assets.
https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38
Sugar just saw RECORD hedge fund inflows. 🍬 Crude Oil is pulling capital into agriculture markets — and the flow data shows it. Eight straight weeks of fund buying in #ags. The money flow is real. 📈 #AgMarkets#Sugar#COT
It’s official.
Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level.
I expect this move to accelerate from here.
When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup.
Be mindful of the social and political consequences of rising food prices.
My latest macro presentation:
https://t.co/9Tz3Hjcncl
Stagflation is written all over this move today.
Gold decisively decoupling from overall equities and rising in step with oil and other hard assets.
So much for the liquidation narrative — it’s gone completely quiet now.
Don’t believe everything you read.
Metals remain supply-constrained, historically underowned relative to financial assets, and deeply undervalued in a world where neutral assets are in high demand as governments rush to build critical mineral reserves.
The defining difference from the 1970s?
A Fed with no real capacity to raise rates.
Game on for hard assets.
https://t.co/w11jIlfmVk
Secondary impacts:
Brazil, the world's largest #sugar producer and exporter, is expected to cut shipments in the 2026/27 season that starts in April by 14.2% as mills divert sugarcane to make ethanol due to high energy prices, consultancy Safras & Mercado said on Thursday.
Source: Reuters
Did a little bunker field trip with @ercwl last week and our conversation on the way there inspired me to write this memo about real assets in the age of AI: https://t.co/S9Hko6m7a9
@Avdankad@ercwl Ligger på LinkedIn varje månad men strategierna säljs till professionella investerare via Luxemburg och SMAs vilket reglerar hur vi får uppdatera hemsidan :)
Elon Musk just described the terminal state of the global financial system.
The banking sector is obsessed with fiat currency.
Superintelligence won’t even recognize it.
Musk: “I think money will stop being relevant at some point in the future. I think the AI will not use human currency. It will just care about power and mass, wattage and tonnage.”
You can’t bribe an algorithm with digital dollars.
The operators controlling the next era won’t be the ones hoarding cash. They’ll be the ones commanding raw energy generation and physical material.
The global economy is transitioning from fiat to thermodynamics.
If your portfolio isn’t anchored in power and mass, your capital is already obsolete.
Musk: “It just represents some percentage ownership in companies that I’ve built. And it’s not like sitting in a bank account. It’s just literally I own a percentage of companies. The companies are doing lots of useful things.”
The general public thinks billionaires hoard massive piles of cash in a vault.
They don’t. Massive wealth is the mathematical byproduct of owning infrastructure that keeps civilization running.
Cash sitting in an account is a depreciating liability. The only real leverage is equity in systems that are actively solving bottlenecks at scale.
Capital sitting idle isn’t safe. It’s bleeding.
Peter Diamandis: “Elon’s driven to solve problems. He’s driven to make life in the world better by just solving the biggest problems over and over and over again. And if someone else were solving them, he wouldn’t need to. But no one else is solving them.”
You don’t achieve trillion-dollar scale by optimizing for a higher salary.
You achieve it by hunting the largest friction points on the planet and engineering them out of existence.
The market doesn’t compensate you for your time. It compensates you in direct proportion to the size of the problem you delete from the board.
Don’t build a company to extract money. Accumulate resources to fund the execution loop until the friction is completely gone.
And once AI measures value purely in physics, the entire concept of wealth as we understand it evaporates.
Who controls the energy. Who controls the materials. Who controls the infrastructure.
Everything else is just numbers on a screen.
This is one of the most compelling setups for agricultural commodities I have seen.
Broad commodities appear to be leading the move, while agricultural commodities remain just below a major historical resistance level.
A breakout could be the next step.
Here is where I elaborate further on this topic:
https://t.co/d5n9i5VcvQ
People focus on oil, but if you look at the fertilizer implications of the last two weeks it seems pretty clear that there is a decent amount of food price inflation coming in 6-12 months.