Asgard Markets

Welcome to Asgard, a macro and digital assets advisory firm bridging traditional macro markets with the digital assets space.

[Asgard Markets @AsgardMarkets]

Full report: https://t.co/1ojGQI81gi

[Asgard Markets @AsgardMarkets]

Initiation Report $LIT (Lighter)
The good: $1.11T ann. vol, 14.7% share , zero trad. fees, $75M rev, $900M TVL.
The bad: tokenomics are a ticking clock. 50% of supply locked to team + investors, cliff ends December 2026.

Strong tech, cheap valuation, top backers

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

The Iran War Is Not 2022

Everyone sees 2022 all over again. Another major energy shock. Similar chart setups.

But the macro is entirely different:

• Real rates: +1.2% today vs -7.5% in Feb 2022
• Fed in wait-and-see mode vs catastrophically behind the curve

And the crude oil futures curve sees the shock as transitory.

[Sunqu @Sunqu22]

Bitcoin is too transparent.

In the last week, Ray Dalio and Chamath Palihapitiya are claiming that Bitcoin's transparency is a weakness rather than an advantage. Both mention that Central Banks would not like this transparency.

However, most central banks do report their gold holdings, though the transparency and frequency vary. The primary reporting mechanism is through the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which publishes International Financial Statistics (IFS) that include gold reserves reported by member countries. Central banks also typically disclose gold holdings in their own financial statements and balance sheets.

[Asgard Markets @AsgardMarkets]

$ASTER Report content:
1. Investment thesis
2. Value proposition
3. Macro Drivers
4. Competitive Landscape
5. Investors and Backers
6. Tokenomics
7. Trading Dynamics
8. Team & Governance
9. Compliance and legal structure
10. Partnerships
11. Roadmap
12. Community

[Asgard Markets @AsgardMarkets]

An initiation report on Aster.

Read the full report:
https://t.co/HcvmLjbsoH

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

https://t.co/WEaH5ehSN6

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

This bitcoin chart tells you spot buyers (strong hands) have driven price higher all day today, while perps shorts have been fighting the market. This is unusual. Open interest increasing while price goes up and funding goes down say so.

Most fresh shorts from the last few days are yet to unwind, and the market is thus at risk of a strong push higher once shorts start unwinding or get liquidated.

Positive news on the Government Shutdown should trigger that move.

[Sunqu @Sunqu22]

These DATs are trading even lower than my most bearish price prediction:

$ASST at $0.81 (prediction between $1 and $3)
$CEP at 1$19.81 (base prediction $19.63)
$NAKA at $0.73 (bearish price of $2)

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Easiest fool-proof way to outperform the market

1. Select good assets
2. Buy during extreme crashes
3. Hold

That's it. You will outperform the market.

The challenge is psyhological. When the market moons, resist the urge to buy, and do not deploy your cash. When the market crashes, resist the urge to sell, and instead buy more.

It's all in your head!

And in asset selection, which is not too difficult: Bitcoin, Gold, Nvidia, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Apple, Oracle. Basically, high quality liquid assets that trend higher on larger time frames. And if in doubt you just buy the Nasdaq index (QQQ).

Follow this playbook, and if you still don't outperform, then you are an idiot.

Good luck!

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Poetic how gold tops the exact day all of CT decides to panic about gold sending warning signals

(gold literally took over my entire X feed and Telegram yesterday ... I proceeded to take the other side and present the gold blow-off top thesis)

[Sunqu @Sunqu22]

Now crypto is a serious industry

In 2024, the biggest Token2049 takeaway was @MustStopMurad's legendary Memes talk, which ignited the AI-meme rally by the end of the year.
We were all buying $GOAT, $FARTCOIN, $ZEREBRO in addition to $SPX, $RETARDIO, $PNUT, etc.
Launching a meme was the only legal thing left to build, buy, or trade. Even presidents launched their own meme after that run.

Twelve months later, we’re back at Token2049, and the big theme is: Institutions are finally here
DATs, RWAs and Stablecoins are all worthwhile of Institutional interest.
Half the speakers were in suits, and most side events had big institutional sponsors.

Finally, we’re a mature, respectable industry…
…until Trump drops his next meme coin

[Sunqu @Sunqu22]

Shareholder approval: a new requirement for DATs
🧵

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.

Some thoughts on the market:

- This indeed is not early in the move, bitcoin is already 7x from the 2022 lows, and much of the move recently is driven by Tradfi's financial engineering via crypto treasury companies

- If concerned about the top, then sell/de-risk, as otherwise you are more likely to sell the bottom on the next move lower

- The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; can argue the 4 year cycle died 2 cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven

- Two things were very different in 2021:
a) BTC did go vertical on wild froth and leverage (a defining feature of that market was uncollateralized borrowing), and
b) the cycle ended not because of BTC or the halving but due to the FED going ultra-hawkish in January 2022

- As I wrote a couple of weeks ago (when I called the bottom at the bottom), I see August 2024 as a good template for August 2025; now look at the chart for August 2024

- I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell

- In the immediate term, Powell is speaking at Jackson Hole (JH) on Friday, and I lean slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner

- The Fed did flip more dovish on average post payrolls two weeks ago

- I still believe the Fed will cut in September

- The September FOMC is the next big trend defining event, and we are still 4 weeks, one speech (JH), and 4 data points away from it (PCE, NFP, CPI, PPI)

- BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers and is now sitting precisely at its trendline from the April lows

- Futures basis, a metric for froth in the market, dropped considerably in the last few days for both BTC and ETH

- Zoom out and we can see BTC is trading more like a stock now: low vol, slow ascent; the July breakout was different, much less of a step function than would have been the case in the pre-ETFs era

- Bull markets don't end because of valuations or over-extension, the end needs a major trigger

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

So I've lost the habit of posting here, as I've been traveling for an extended period of time and busy with personal matters. Plan to resume posting regularly soon. In the meantime let me share some quick market views given the dramatic moves we've just experienced.

I see the current move as a smaller scale replay of last year's August crash (which bottomed on Monday).

2024's August crash was driven by the BoJ hiking first (initial trigger for the infamous carry trade unwind), followed by a hawkish FOMC, and then by a dismal payrolls number, unleashing panicky recession calls and everyone suddenly learning about the Sahm rule.

This one is similar. Déjà Vu. No carry trade this time. But we had a slightly hawkish FOMC (nothing crazy, as reflected by the small moves in short rates and FX). Combined with heavy noise from earnings (solid earnings for MSFT and META, OK earnings for AAPL, and very poorly received earnings for AMZN). Slightly hot PCE inflation. And very aggressive equities profit taking on Thursday, turning the chart into a bull trap. And today, horrid payrolls report.

Trump going ballistic and firing the head of the BLS because he didn't like the data, Argentina style, was somewhat crazy, but noise when it comes to markets. Similarly, Trump continued negative comments on Powell are likely noise at this point, at least for now. What did cause additional dumping was first the US deploying two nuclear submarines to Russia, and then Trump saying the US is prepared for nuclear war with Russia, helping levered panicans get liquidated, thus putting a local bottom on BTC after the close.

What about crypto drivers. It's been a very eventful week for crypto. We had dreadful COIN earnings. Concerns about Strategy turning its ATM off (protecting its NAV yet limiting its ability to buy BTC). Concerns about the sustainability of the ETH "DATs" (Digital Asset Treasury Companies). And the SEC launching "Project Crypto", to modernize securities rules and bringing markets on-chain (an extremely bullish development that should drive inflows later in the year). That said, even though the aforementioned concerns emboldened bears, this week's move has been mainly a macro story, given how crypto traded mostly in line with equity indices.

More importantly, what about prices. I think crypto either bottomed after today's close, given the sheer violence of that final dump, or will be bottoming together with equities on Monday. Why? Because I see this as a replay of last year's August crash. A violent shakeout. I'll be looking to add to longs on Monday, ideally before the US cash open (assuming a panicky overnight session), if everything goes according to plan.

Then up ahead we have 6.5 weeks until the next FOMC, Jackson Hole end of August, and a lot of data to help the Fed decide if to finally cut. I think they cut in September.

Fed Governor Kugler quitting the Fed (today) will prove to be an important event, as it gives Trump the opening to appoint someone of his own ahead of time, who would likely lean dovish and put pressure on Powell together with FOMC dissenters Waller and Bowman. This someone could be Trump's choice of future Fed Chair (replacing Powell next May unless something cracks), thus establishing a shadow chair at the Fed, possibly with the ability to steer other FOMC members the Trump way (to cut rates).

I remain bullish on crypto into Q4 based on a) expectations of a solid US economy, b) the Fed beginning to cut, and c) continued increase in crypto adoption (both institutional and retail) as the regulatory environment continues to improve.

That said, I think DATs will lose momentum dramatically in Q4, which combined with inflation temporarily creeping back up via goods, as US corporates increasingly pass tariffs on to consumers, could complicate market conditions. But we can worry about that later.

My 1-year target (mid 2026) for BTC is in the $200k to $250k range. Extreme, but possible. Particularly so given how the Fed would pivot dovish in May 2026 (possibly sooner), increasing the probability of the US economy running hot on both sides, fiscal and monetary.

My bigger picture bear case scenario revolves around the possibility of Trump doing poorly in the Midterms. A topic for another time.

Now let's see how this ages.

[Anna Tutova 🇺🇦 @anna_tutova]

🔥 BITCOIN’S “EXPLOSIVE BREAKOUT” IS IMMINENT
It was great to meet macro legend Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) at @SeliniCapital Summit in Cannes 🇫🇷
His message: RIGHT NOW = December 2020 2.0
Here’s why $120K BTC is inevitable —and the ONE risk that could delay it:

🚀 THE 3 CATALYSTS IGNITING THE SURGE
1️⃣ 🇺🇸 “One Big Beautiful Act” (OBBA)
Trump’s crypto legislation racing through Congress → Regulatory clarity + institutional tsunami.
Policy shifts will inject rocket fuel.

2️⃣ 🏦 Corporate Treasury Tsunami
Public companies like @metaplanet hoarded 131,000 BTC in Q2 alone (vs. ETF inflows).
This is fuel to the fire. Supply shock incoming.

3️⃣ 🎯 Fed Chair Shift (2026)
Powell’s replacement = “Icing on the cake.” Dovish successor = 🚀 acceleration.

⚡ WHY NOW = DECEMBER 2020 2.0
▪️ Then: @Grayscale’s $20K breakout.
▪️ Now: Corporate treasuries + ETFs hold 2.25M BTC (10.7% of supply!).
> June 2025 mirrors Dec 2020. When it breaks, it breaks HARD.

⚠️ CRITICAL RISK: JULY 9 TARIFF DECISION
Trump’s tariffs (July 9) → Inflation spike → Fed rate hikes → Short-term pullback.
Watch labor costs. A hawkish Fed is Bitcoin’s kryptonite.

📈 BITCOIN PRICE SNAPSHOT
- NOW: $109,450
- ATH: $112,000 (June 2025)
- Krüger’s Target: $120,000+
> The breakout will be EXPLOSIVE when it comes.

[Sunqu @Sunqu22]

"We will have the stablecoins legislation, which I think could create at least $2 trillion in demand for treasury bills" @SecScottBessent

And you thought there was not going to be demand for USD

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Trump working for our bags

[Sunqu @Sunqu22]

Deep dive into KindlyMD - Nakamoto transaction: RTO for BTC-treasury listed entities 🧵

Reverse take overs (RTO) have been the preferred structure for listed companies to become a BTC-treasury company. Struggling small-cap listed companies are pivoting into this new financial engineering business model of BTC-treasury companies. MicroStrategy (MSTR) is the OG of BTC-treasury listed companies, and has been extremely successful in terms of stock price performance.
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[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Read this if are in crypto