Austin Alley

Brown ‘24

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

$NRIX further dilution way less likely, great partner adding to PoS, and more efficient pipeline particularly for international enrollment. How is this a bad thing? Am I missing something??

[Dirk Haussecker @RNAiAnalyst]

$NRIX more or less gives up half of its financial interest in most valuable pipeline asset for ~half its current market cap in upfront cash.

There were times when biotechs sold off hard on such news.

https://t.co/YkVNAStjse

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

$NRIX partnership w/ Roche 👏

https://t.co/r9z0jICBiv

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

People buy what’s going up… until they don’t. Some underrated catalysts given references to the “catalyst desert”: $LLY settlement could now materially affect mcap and the longer we wait the more likely another case of kaposi sarcoma pops up for amli. Wonder what the FDA will do 🤔

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@Getoutofmyway1 @PickingMyOwn Doesn’t $NKTR have an open to settle position publicly?

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@A_May_MD @FWCStocks Sellside develop relationships with companies. Much more harmful for them to get a good one wrong

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@A_May_MD @KevinLMak this is like a premature turn coming eliminating the last suited combo you were worried about your opponent having. And donating the alpha back to Adam is crazy work. 🐐

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@A_May_MD So efficient, yet so inefficient.

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@ASchulz888 The pressure is certainly not subsiding.

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

$NKTR The market does not seem to love the recent raise. Are people considering the perspective that this is an increased bargaining chip in the suit against $LLY?

After the raise they have ~$1.1b cash which alleviates any cash pressure, meaning they have more than enough firepower to fund the highest quality resources to fight at trial and no incentive to settle cheaply. A strong footing already increases the 85%-90% the case settles.

It also increasingly shows demand for the company at a ~$3 billion mcap which only adds to the lost-value claim. 2024 reports estimated the settlement number between $250-$600 million. That number is undeniably higher now. Not a small number.

If you look at the Dermira acquisition, Lebri's commercial success, and degree to which REZPEG data was misrepresented, the read through to bad faith is rationally seamless for a jury.

If you don't want to take it from me, check out the 13G of Two Seas Capital that disclosed increasing their stake to 6.8% of $NKTR shares outstanding in Q1.
“Two Seas Capital LP seeks to generate outsized, uncorrelated returns through investments in events with a legal or regulatory catalyst.”

Disclosure: Long $NKTR

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@Chazztheshort @HaikenAdam99378 You're missing multiple points in the post, one of which is optics, which I'd argue is very important as a trial date approaches. Contribute something with substantive value or block me like you do everyone else.

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@KevinLMak

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@CloisterRes Now both spiritually and literally correct

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@A_May_MD

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@A_May_MD Would love to know how you think about these opportunities. Are you moving capital around? Do you use them to increase gross exposure/hedge the $XBI beta from the longs?

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@stoic_point @StockJabber It would be in a catastrophic drawdown

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@JaredKubin Thanks so much for the insight. Will be incredibly fascinating to watch the development, or lack thereof, shake out.

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@blondesnmoney Where is this stat from?

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@ChrisCamillo does this drastically reduce $HOOD reliance on crypto for revenue?

[Austin Alley @AustinAlley_]

@blueprintsmb22 @RaleighPartners super insightful. Do you think this is a permanent change, or something that unwinds say next black swan?