Benjamin Sturisky

Building @Starknet / Previously @Delphi_Digital

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

It was an eventful week in Miami for Consensus.

Over the course of the week, I participated in:

1. A keynote on privacy for tokenized assets at the @TokenizedSummit

2. A panel on wiring TradFi to come onchain at the @TokenizedSummit

3. A panel on private capital markets at the Capital Summit by @caladanxyz

4. A panel on stablecoin payments for AI agents at Near Miami by @NEARProtocol @therollupco

Privacy is a human right and @Starknet will continue to advocate and build products supporting that.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

Ethereum leading the way with tokenized stocks (contrary to this app's belief!)

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@mrinko maybe I gotta just be convinced

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

Gabe, plenty of respect for you from the conversations we had whilst working at Delphi!

Starknet privacy is by no means perfect; but we do outline it is ‘compliant’ and thus will not have the same cypherpunk features as L2beat is outlining.

P.S. when it comes to platforms can always follow the money to see certain biases etc

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

Closed at 75

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

Got ~$73 and took it for a swing.

Not too comfortable buying but want to follow my original plan

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

At what price is $STRC an idiosyncratic trade?

At ~$96 ($4 < par), you're getting paid ~4.1% to hold to par + 1% for each month it takes.

Liquidation hierarchy goes corporate debt -> Strife preferred (STRF) -> Stretch preferred (STRC) -> Strike preferred (STRK) -> Stride preferred (STRD) -> regular shareholders (MSTR).

Strategy holds ~$57B in BTC with $6.7B in corporate debt (#1 claim). There's ~$1.3B with STRF, then STRC with ~$10.5B.

In the case of MSTR wind down, STRC is in the bucket of $9B -> $19.5B, meaning BTC has a max drawdown of ~65.8% for STRC to still be fully collateralized. Add ~5% to the price for bankruptcy lawyers, and BTC's price needed to maintain solvency is ~$24,200.

It's not as simple as that unfortunately -- the above case assumes Strategy can exit their position without price impact. To exit their ~75,000 BTC, I would lean optimistic and assume price impact is ~20-30%, with more buyers then people expect.

Accounting for this, the break-even for STRC is ~$29,000 -> ~$31,500.

All of the above is dependent on Strategy being willing to wind-down their position. But the probability of that is slim at best:

STRF/STRC/STRK/STRD have no voting rights and cannot force a liquidation. They have preferred redemption over shareholders, but with no way to force that redemption.

The only realistic path towards liquidation is corporate debt; but with 6.7B of debt backed by $57B in BTC, it's ~0% chance the corporate debt will default. Saylor has also made it clear he prioritizes this debt through issuing STRC to repurchase the debt.

There's four paths forward for STRC to reach parity:

1. Rate mechanism increases trigged with STRC < $95
2. BTC price appreciation
3. MSTR dilution to repurchase STRC shares
4. Interest rates decreasing -> STRC more attractive

(1) is the structured system but doesn't materially matter for reaching back to parity unless raised more than the 50bps permitted

(2) a significant surge would lead to STRC reaching parity, but better r/r to buy BTC

(3) MSTR NAV is collapsing (~1.2x now), unlikely Strategy will further dilute. That said, possible Saylor nukes MSTR to 1x NAV in an effort to clean Strategy up of their debt. This could work, and would lead to MSTR acting more as a BTC ETF. I would estimate this at a ~10% chance of happening, as it would destroy MSTR shareholders.

(4) This is unlikely to move the needle as STRC is already far more attractive, minimal movements won't matter.

When does STRC become attractive?

At ~$96 and ~11.5% interest, the market is currently implying a fair yield of ~12%.

To recalculate with a proper adjusted fair yield: risk-free rate + default risk + no-maturity risk.

For the default risk, I would estimate ~1% (BTC collateral is fine) and the no-maturity risk at ~10% (this is the real issue).

~4.3% + ~1% + 10% = fair yield of ~15.3%.

With my risk calculations, STRC is an idiosyncratic trade around $75 (~22% lower then the current price).

It is my view that traders are not properly accounting for the risk of STRC entering zombie-land (always under par with no redemption in site).

The BTC collateral is fine but preferred shareholders don't have any way to force the redemption and neither do MSTR shareholders.

Buying STRC is effectively banking on BTC price appreciation -> more demand for BTC structured products -> return to parity.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

Difficult to justify $COIN exposure:

Business is being walled in from both the trading side and institutional side.

Hard to play to retail and institutions simultaneously; now losing both sides as Robinhood takes trading and banks take institutional.

Respect to Brian for advocating for CLARITY which set sharks against his business in exchange for a regulated playing field. But doesn’t seem they will be able to fight off their adversaries.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@TheOneandOmsy will be many more cases in the future

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@mrinko can’t bc of Solana dependency

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

This industry will not be taken seriously until equity&lt;&gt;token leakage is fixed

[Frank Chaparro @fintechfrank]

Kraken in talks to buy 15% stake in DeFi lender Aave at $385 million valuation

https://t.co/selgVfdTGc

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@mrinko @mdudas @thegardendao @nyknicks @futarddotio …is a Knicks fan and didn’t tell me…

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

Does fortune favor the brave?

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

$STRC down to ~$80.

I still find ~$75 an attractive price, but I will say there is a caveat:

If Saylor wants to stop the yield strategies and convert MSTR to a BTC trust (positive outcome for shareholders) he can default on the preferred debt...

There's no contractual obligation for STRC holders to receive a dividend payment or their collateral back.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@nic_carter Agree!
https://t.co/mJqH45aZUl

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

At what price is $STRC an idiosyncratic trade?

At ~$96 ($4 < par), you're getting paid ~4.1% to hold to par + 1% for each month it takes.

Liquidation hierarchy goes corporate debt -> Strife preferred (STRF) -> Stretch preferred (STRC) -> Strike preferred (STRK) -> Stride preferred (STRD) -> regular shareholders (MSTR).

Strategy holds ~$57B in BTC with $6.7B in corporate debt (#1 claim). There's ~$1.3B with STRF, then STRC with ~$10.5B.

In the case of MSTR wind down, STRC is in the bucket of $9B -> $19.5B, meaning BTC has a max drawdown of ~65.8% for STRC to still be fully collateralized. Add ~5% to the price for bankruptcy lawyers, and BTC's price needed to maintain solvency is ~$24,200.

It's not as simple as that unfortunately -- the above case assumes Strategy can exit their position without price impact. To exit their ~75,000 BTC, I would lean optimistic and assume price impact is ~20-30%, with more buyers then people expect.

Accounting for this, the break-even for STRC is ~$29,000 -> ~$31,500.

All of the above is dependent on Strategy being willing to wind-down their position. But the probability of that is slim at best:

STRF/STRC/STRK/STRD have no voting rights and cannot force a liquidation. They have preferred redemption over shareholders, but with no way to force that redemption.

The only realistic path towards liquidation is corporate debt; but with 6.7B of debt backed by $57B in BTC, it's ~0% chance the corporate debt will default. Saylor has also made it clear he prioritizes this debt through issuing STRC to repurchase the debt.

There's four paths forward for STRC to reach parity:

1. Rate mechanism increases trigged with STRC < $95
2. BTC price appreciation
3. MSTR dilution to repurchase STRC shares
4. Interest rates decreasing -> STRC more attractive

(1) is the structured system but doesn't materially matter for reaching back to parity unless raised more than the 50bps permitted

(2) a significant surge would lead to STRC reaching parity, but better r/r to buy BTC

(3) MSTR NAV is collapsing (~1.2x now), unlikely Strategy will further dilute. That said, possible Saylor nukes MSTR to 1x NAV in an effort to clean Strategy up of their debt. This could work, and would lead to MSTR acting more as a BTC ETF. I would estimate this at a ~10% chance of happening, as it would destroy MSTR shareholders.

(4) This is unlikely to move the needle as STRC is already far more attractive, minimal movements won't matter.

When does STRC become attractive?

At ~$96 and ~11.5% interest, the market is currently implying a fair yield of ~12%.

To recalculate with a proper adjusted fair yield: risk-free rate + default risk + no-maturity risk.

For the default risk, I would estimate ~1% (BTC collateral is fine) and the no-maturity risk at ~10% (this is the real issue).

~4.3% + ~1% + 10% = fair yield of ~15.3%.

With my risk calculations, STRC is an idiosyncratic trade around $75 (~22% lower then the current price).

It is my view that traders are not properly accounting for the risk of STRC entering zombie-land (always under par with no redemption in site).

The BTC collateral is fine but preferred shareholders don't have any way to force the redemption and neither do MSTR shareholders.

Buying STRC is effectively banking on BTC price appreciation -> more demand for BTC structured products -> return to parity.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

The rise of socialism in the U.S. is not only anti-American, but anti-progress and anti-humanity.

The American Dream is the foundation of America.

Capitalism is both a cause and a result of the American dream.

It is proof that an unrestricted economy leads to continuous innovation and a thriving society. It is proof that through hard work, someone can achieve anything and everything they wish.

The Wright Brothers, Vint Cerf, and Steve Jobs all operated under the belief that America would reward them for changing the world. They were right, and today we have planes, the internet, and iPhones.

Socialism has created nothing. It disincentives innovation, creates capital flight, and invites massive fraud.

The only winners in socialism are politicians. Fidel Castro was a billionaire. Ro Khanna is worth $250M, Ilhan Omar $30M, AOC $10M, and Bernie Sanders owns three properties.

It is not a free or just system. And it does not reflect the values of America.

It's time to wake up and protect the values that built this amazing country 🇺🇸

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

“In societies where modern conditions of production prevail, all of life presents itself as an immense accumulation of spectacles.” - Guy Debord

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

KALSHI IN TALKS TO RAISE FUNDS AT $40BN VALUATION: FT

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@fintechfrank This is surely case dependent because @ERasowsky @rudolf6_ @0xstark have always been responsive and helpful

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@DavidGardnerHQ I'm trying!

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

$STRC down to ~$80.

I still find ~$75 an attractive price, but I will say there is a caveat:

If Saylor wants to stop the yield strategies and convert MSTR to a BTC trust (positive outcome for shareholders) he can default on the preferred debt...

There's no contractual obligation for STRC holders to receive a dividend payment or their collateral back.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

$STRC now down to ~$85.

With ~10.5B outstanding shares, MicroStrategy has put themselves in an unattractive position.

With $1.1B in cash, they would need to sell ~$9B of BTC to retire the debt (note: small discrepancy assuming they can retire a portion of shares at a discount by open-market acquisition).

If I am in Saylor’s position here’s what I do:

MicroStrategy’s NAV has been consistently trending lower and will likely trade < NAV eventually.

However, NAV post-debt is still at ~1.15 (thank you @jdorman81).

There’s an asymmetric chance to clear the majority of the debt through hammering the ATM. It would be stunting any future capital-raising engineering, but the market is showing its hand that it doesn’t like debt-based financial engineering on DATs.

If I’m in charge of the ATM, I’m selling as many shares as it takes to get the NAV to 1. For any remaining preferred debt, I’d sell BTC and fully retire all debt-based products.

The goal would be to clean out the balance sheet and attempt to convert MicroStrategy to an ETF.

When the leverage dilution games run its course, MSTR shareholders are going to realize they have no method for accretive BTC accumulation. The only way shareholders get their fair return is through conversion to an ETF, and Saylor should have shareholders’ best interests at heart.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

DATs are actually inefficient vehicles cosplaying in efficient markets!

The benefit is enabling accessibility for inaccessible assets. The Grayscale Bitcoin trust had enormous demand because it was a BTC vehicle accessible to institutions, at a time where Wall Street could not touch digital assets.

When BTC ETFs were regulated, the demand collapsed (27,000 BTC in outflows since ETF launch).

Now that digital assets are becoming regulated, institutions do not need to interact with proxy vehicles.

If you're buying a DAT with a preexisting ETF (e.g. MSTR, BTC), you are:

(a) Paying a premium (instant markdown)

(b) Giving up redemption rights. With an ETF, you can sell when you want, but with a proxy vehicle it's at the discretion of the voting majority

(c) Reducing the verifiability of your claim on the underlying asset. You personally do not own the assets in DATs, and your redemption rights will always be last behind the leveraged product offerings (e.g. STRC).

The idea that DATs have access to "cheap debt" that they can use to enhance the underlying asset per share is not factual.

Microstrategy is paying ~11.5% to STRC shareholders, and the nominal current yield is ~14.4% as it's trading ~25% under NAV.

All DATs should work to retire all debt and convert to a trust/ETF. This is the only mechanism that will result in a fair outcome for shareholders.

[Benjamin Sturisky @bsturisky]

@RoKhanna @elonmusk You pose in front of the American flag while championing anti-American causes

The founding fathers would be disgusted

[Evan Solomon @Evanzsolomon]

The truth is i've been struggling with what to do with @college_xyz & @UBC_Conference.

Now a year out of college, I don't have the bandwidth I once did. BUT it is clearly very valuable to both students the industry.

Over two years, we've helped 100+ students land internships and jobs in crypto. Without the work we are doing, it is very likely this talent would land in other industries.

AI is pulling in the best young talent. But crypto is being adopted faster than ever, and if we want this industry to keep innovating, we need to introduce students to the best teams and applications early in their careers. That is the only way for them to truly understand the value props crypto enables.

So we are running it back. Through @college_xyz, our newly approved 501(c)(3), we'll host UBC 2026 on November 20–21, at the University of Texas Austin.

With it being in Austin, this will be our biggest and most expensive event yet. We are not cutting our student subsidy program, so we'll be relying on the industry's best companies to support us, and allow us to drive value back into the industry.

We also need incredible speakers. Leaders that will inspire the next generation to test our new applications, build projects, and pursue a career in crypto. If you are interested in speaking at our event, shoot me a DM.

Thank you in advance for all of the support.

Invest in the next generation!!!