Almost every major AI tech company is rushing to raise capital — a classic late-cycle signal. Liquidity is finite, so there isn't enough to keep bidding up both stocks and crypto.
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked
We recently submitted a confidential S-1. We expect it to leak so we’re just announcing it. We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best.
This announcement is being made pursuant to Rule 135 under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Any offers, solicitations of offers to buy, or any sales of securities will be made in accordance with the registration requirements of the Securities Act.
Is $HOOD Decoupling From Crypto?
HOOD and Bitcoin prices have visibly decoupled over the past weeks. Here are the catalysts.
1) PDT $25K rule eliminated, effective June 4SEC approved FINRA's repeal of the Pattern Day Trader rule on April 14; removing the small-account day-trading barrier maps directly onto HOOD's retail base. → https://t.co/uy1u4X4jsl
2) FIFA World Cup + owned prediction-market exchangeRothera (Robinhood 45% / Susquehanna 45% / MIAX 10%) already self-certified its first contracts on May 14 and is on track to launch by June 30, giving HOOD its own CFTC-licensed DCM and full vertical control over product, pricing, and UX — margin structure resets. → https://t.co/AokcrRIFcH
3) CFTC eases US perpetual futures rulesOn May 29 the CFTC approved Kalshi's BTCPERP and issued Coinbase a no-action letter, opening the door to the ~$86 trillion in annual perp volume that previously flowed offshore — HOOD, with the deepest retail channel, is the most logical next entrant once Rothera is live. → https://t.co/CEjJNJIYkK
4) Trump Accounts technology vendorRobinhood-built Trump Accounts app launched May 28 with HOOD as initial trustee on a white-labeled backend; CFO Shiv Verma confirmed that US states and public-sector organizations are now approaching the company to replicate the model — minimal near-term revenue, but a multi-decade retail funnel locked in at the infrastructure layer. → https://t.co/Lq8Cj1gCi0
I treat FDV as a fair value proxy unless the remaining token supply is burned immediately. Since HYPE is a trading token, comparing it against trading peers is reasonable imo. The deflationary mechanism is a genuine advantage, but its sustainability is questionable for the reasons outlined above. I know I might be too conservative (lost $$ on alts conviction) 😂 — but I’m comfortable locking in profit at this level and won’t regret it if it runs another +30%
I unstaked my $HYPE to sell. The price upside looks limited from here given a lofty value relative to peers.
Market cap comparison (FDV for tokens):
$HYPE — $60B
$BNB (token) — $87B
$HOOD (stock) — $66B
$NDAQ (stock) — $51B
$COIN (stock) — $49B
Hyperliquid has been the standout success in crypto over the past few years, with arguably the best PMF in the space. But I'm skeptical its moat holds up against rising US regulatory pressure, intensified competition and active TradFi lobbying against it.
The questions we should ask:
1. Can Hyperliquid retain non-KYC access, and its whale base, under US regulatory scrutiny?
2. Can Hyperliquid hold its dominant share of perp DEX volume against peers?
3. Will US regulators and TradFi institutions let Hyperliquid dominate RWA trading?
4. Will a few dozen startup employees keep capturing the most lucrative profits in the emering financial sector?
My answer to all four: no.