Kirill

Sharing Value & Narratives | Research | Crypto | AI
Probability & Opinion | #Crypto

[Kirill @BetQuant]

Polymarket is rolling out a major upgrade to its trading infrastructure ⚡

Here’s what’s coming:

• New order execution engine
• Upgraded smart contracts (CTF Exchange V2)
• New collateral token — Polymarket USD (1:1 backed by USDC)
• Faster matching and simplified order structure
• Support for EIP-1271 signatures
• On-chain builder codes for order attribution
• Optimized fee collection & distribution

Polymarket USD replaces USDC.e
For most users, the transition will be seamless — the frontend automatically wraps tokens (one-time approval required).

If you're using bots or API integrations:
• Update to the latest SDK (TypeScript / Python / Go)
• Re-create order signatures under the new structure
• Wrap USDC/USDC.e into Polymarket USD via wrap() on the Collateral Onramp contract
Migration timeline:
• Rollout over the next 2–3 weeks
• All open orders will be canceled during migration
• Short maintenance window expected
• Exact timing will be announced at least one week in advance

Major infrastructure upgrade for Polymarket — faster, cleaner, and more scalable 🚀

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

We've heard your feedback, and we're excited to announce Polymarket is getting a full exchange upgrade.

Over the next few weeks, we're rolling out a rebuilt trading engine, upgraded smart contracts, and a new collateral token (Polymarket USD) to move off USDC.e. 🧵

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@DextersSolab Yes, exactly the same posts as the guy who made 1 million on meme token.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@MookieNFT He only had 50 million on paper, he wouldn't have been able to sell everything for that amount at the peak, any sale from his wallet would have instantly collapsed the price

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@coldtrz I think this is just a clickbait headline.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

https://t.co/dXcc3pCIj2

[Kirill @BetQuant]

OpenGradient (@OpenGradient) — One of the Most Serious Decentralized AI Bets?

OpenGradient is building permissionless, verifiable AI on-chain — enabling AI models, agents, and full AI apps to run directly from smart contracts with cryptographic proofs.

Why it matters 👇
• AI today = centralized (OpenAI, Google, Big Tech)
• Blockchain today = can't handle heavy AI compute
• OpenGradient = Decentralized + Verifiable + On-chain AI

Key highlights:
• Hybrid AI compute (GPU inference + validators + data nodes)
• 1500+ models already live in Model Hub
• zkML + TEE verification
• Fully EVM-compatible
• Backed by a16z Crypto, Coinbase Ventures, Balaji, Polygon, NEAR founders
Token: $OPG
TGE: Expected 2026 (soon)
Low float launch → potential strong day-1 volatility

Polymarket FDV expectations (Day +1 after TGE):
• >$50M → ~96%
• >$100M → ~74%
• >$200M → ~26%

Conservative Base Case:
🎯 $150M ± $30M FDV
Most realistic range: $140M–$220M

Why conservative?
• 2026 market punishes high FDV launches
• Low float = initial pump → fast price discovery
• AI narrative strong but no longer euphoric
If strong CEX listings + hype → $220M–$250M
Quiet launch / weak market → $120M–$140M

Bottom line:
OpenGradient looks like a high-quality decentralized AI infrastructure play — but realistic expectations matter more than hype.
This is one of the more interesting AI x Crypto launches to watch in 2026 👀
$OPG #Crypto #AI #DePIN #Web3

[Kirill @BetQuant]

🚨 Quantum Apocalypse for Crypto?

Google Quantum AI + Ethereum Foundation + Stanford just released a paper that may drastically shorten the timeline for quantum attacks on crypto.

Old assumption:
Millions of qubits required
New estimate:
<500,000 qubits

Current progress:
~1,000 qubits already
We’ve moved from science → engineering scale.

Research:
https://t.co/TMrhgLAEb0
⏱️ Wallets could be hacked in ~9 minutes

Scenario:

You send a transaction
It enters mempool

Quantum computer derives private key

Attacker sends higher fee

Funds stolen before confirmation

Estimated success:
BTC — ~41%
Litecoin / Dogecoin — near 100%
Source:
https://t.co/0ePGwhtUIQ
🔥 What's at risk
• 6.9M BTC (~35%)
• 20.5M ETH
• 37M ETH staking
• $200B stablecoins
Biggest risk:
Admin keys of smart contracts

If compromised:
DeFi could collapse in hours.
⚠️ Privacy coins also at risk
Monero
Zcash
Others

Quantum computers could retroactively decrypt
years of transaction history.
🟢 Who's preparing

Solana
XRP Ledger
Algorand
QRL

Vitalik Buterin already discussing post-quantum migration.

This is no longer "if"
It's "when"
Will crypto upgrade in time…
Or face the largest financial hack in history?
Thoughts?

[Kirill @BetQuant]

Magic Eden just quietly killed ME Wallet.

• App removed from App Store & Google Play
• Wallet switched to export-only mode
• No transactions available anymore
• Users must export seed/private keys or risk losing access
This follows:
— EVM marketplace shutdown
— BTC marketplace shutdown
— Bitcoin API disabled
Magic Eden is clearly pivoting away from wallet infrastructure.
Takeaway:
If your crypto isn’t self-custodied, it's not really yours.

Another reminder:
Always export keys early. Platforms can pivot overnight.

[Magic Eden 🪄 @MagicEden]

REMINDER!

ME Wallet enters export-only mode tomorrow and will no longer be available on App Stores.

Be sure to export your assets or wallets.

https://t.co/ZzQJ0FGe7y

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@rinneXBT LIT was disappointing. I bought it at 2 and sold it at 0.8. I gained experience and lost money.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

https://t.co/SOLndHX69u

[Kirill @BetQuant]

🥺 OpenSea (@opensea ) Update

🔵 Introduction

You’ve likely seen the post (https://t.co/fk6bNP8LNh
) where dfinzer shares that market conditions are tough, and the $SEA launch is delayed indefinitely to avoid missing the right moment.

Let's break down all the available information, analyze each statement, and try to find clarity.

🔵 Key Takeaways from dfinzer's Post

— The AMA on March 30th is canceled.
— No more reward waves: the current one will be the last.
— Refund for Waves 3-6 fees. So, Waves 1 & 2 are excluded.
— 0% fees for 60 days: From March 31, OpenSea will reduce its trading fees to 0%.
— After 60 days, fee logic will be reevaluated to make them more competitive.

🔵 Insights from Adam Hollander's Interview

— Transitioning from an NFT marketplace to a full-on chain platform.
— Mobile app release is imminent; perpetuals will follow soon after.
— Plans to integrate Solana and Bitcoin Ordinals/BRC-20 deeply.
— 0% fees are an action to drive trading volumes, boost TVL before TGE.
— TGE will launch when the platform is ready, no fixed date to avoid another delay.
— Refunds will be handled case-by-case.
— $SEA will have utility: governance, staking for lower fees, access to premium features, revenue share, and potentially boost rewards for holders.

[dfinzer.eth | opensea @dfinzer]

an update on $SEA.

the team has been building at full speed, and the foundation had planned to kick off the first steps as part of our march 30th event. but @openseafdn is pushing back the timeline.

a delay is a delay. i’m not going to dress it up, and i know how it lands.

the reality is that market conditions are challenging across crypto right now, and $SEA only launches once. @openseafdn could force the original date, or we could ensure every piece is in place and make this moment what this community deserves.

we gave a tremendous amount of thought to how to do right here. I’m thankful to @HollanderAdam for bringing the community’s voice into every conversation. we’ll be doing the following:

no more waves: the current rewards wave will be our last.

optional fee refund: recognizing that we originally committed to a Q1 date, we’re offering refunds of the platform fees we retained while participating in the rewards waves (3 - 6) that followed our timing announcement. if you like, you can receive a refund of those fees, which when combined with treasure chest prizes, essentially means all of your trading during that period was on us. if you opt for a refund, the Treasures you were awarded during these waves will be removed from your account. details on this process will follow.

honoring existing Treasures: for Treasures you continue to hold, our prior commitment stands: they will be meaningfully considered by the Foundation at TGE. this is independent from allocations for historical activity.

0% fees for 60 days: starting on march 31st, opensea will reduce our own token trading fees to 0%. we want to make it a no-brainer for everyone to experience our new platform: cross-chain token trading, mobile app, perps and more. after this 60 day period, we will put a new system in place that makes fees significantly more competitive for anyone trading consistently on opensea.

product updates: while we’re postponing our march 30th event, we’ll host a separate one in the coming months focused on product updates. it’s been incredible to see the early responses to our mobile app, and we can’t wait to get it into more people’s hands.

so if not now, wen?

when we announced last year, it was too early. that created unnecessary uncertainty and reactivity. so when the Foundation sets a new timeline, it will be deliberate and specific.

here’s why i’m confident that’s the right move:

i’ve been building opensea for almost a decade. when this started, we were two people and the only thing you could trade on OS was cryptokitties. i’ve watched this space go from a niche curiosity to billions in volume to where we are today.

the thing that’s carried us through every cycle was a willingness to make hard calls when it mattered. when our market crashed, we rebuilt from zero: an entirely new stack, a new product, and a new team culture. that hurt in the short term. but today OS2 is undeniably the strongest marketplace offering, and it’s the foundation everything sits on.

we have huge ambitions as a company, and we’re here for the long game. making all of non-custodial crypto delightful on mobile is just the beginning. that means we have to set a very high bar for everything we do, and it’s why i’m so protective of delivering a launch that’s worthy of this community and everything we’re putting into this.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@RoundtableSpace @kkashi_yt Elons friend

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@xarteth @PolymarketTrade Projects are now coming out with very low ratings and there is only one way for them to go - even lower.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@usuches @edgeX_exchange @Polymarket @polymarketinfo @PolymarketTrade Are you betting that FDV will be less than 300 million or have I misunderstood the point of the post?

[Kirill @BetQuant]

https://t.co/4bJw2edjnU

[Kirill @BetQuant]

R2 Protocol (@r2yield) launching today — bringing institutional yield fully on-chain

R2 Protocol is an on-chain asset management platform focused on RWAFi — combining Real-World Assets with DeFi to deliver institutional-grade yield without KYC.

At the center of the ecosystem is R2USD, a yield-bearing stablecoin backed by:
• Tokenized US Treasuries
• Money market funds
• Private credit
• Institutional partners like Apollo, VanEck, Securitize, Ondo, Centrifuge and others
Users deposit USDC/USDT, and the protocol automatically allocates capital into diversified real-world yield strategies.
Current vaults:
• R2 Reserve — low risk, ~4%+ APY
• R2 Prime — medium risk, ~9–12% APY
This positions R2 as TradFi yield infrastructure on-chain, not another high-risk DeFi farming protocol.
Current metrics
• TVL: ~$6.5M
• 90-day APY: ~7.7%
• Live on Ethereum + BNB Chain
• Audited by PeckShield & Supremacy
• Graduated from BNB Chain MVB10 accelerator

Tokenomics ($R2)
• Total supply: 1B tokens
• Community: 50%
• Ecosystem: 19.5%
• Investors: 8.5%
• Team: 5%
• Low initial circulation (~10.4%)

Launch today
$R2 officially launches March 30, 2026 on Binance Alpha, with trading and airdrop via Alpha Points expected shortly after.
This is also the event being tracked by prediction markets, where traders are betting on R2’s FDV one day after launch.
If RWAs continue gaining traction, R2 could become another major player in the on-chain yield infrastructure narrative — one of the fastest-growing sectors in crypto right now.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@breezyjpg @Polymarket @PolymarketSport @PolymarketTrade What happened there? Why was one winner announced first, then another?

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@ToolySOL It looks like your strategy isn't working.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@rb_tweets Even with regular bookmakers, this strategy only brings losses in the long run.

[Kirill @BetQuant]

@0xBumblebee @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade I think this is a very risky strategy and you just got lucky.