Most betting models fail for the same reasons 📉
We break down how sharp bettors actually build and evaluate models, from scratch to real money decisions
Full Q&A on Circles Off with @RobPizzola and @PlusEVAnalytics 🍿
Modeling is the part of sports betting nobody wants to talk about because it's hard and most people are doing it wrong. Sat down with @PlusEVAnalytics to walk through how sharp bettors actually approach it. Worth your time if you're serious about this stuff.
I am going to live stream at 11am ET going over NBA Player Props using @betstamp pro for Game 1s in NBA Playoffs.
Plan is to go book by book looking for +EV props (FD, DK, MGM, 365, Rivers + any books you’d like me to include).
I will also respond to props from the chat.
🚨 Huge news! 🚨
After many months of development, we're officially going public with the Betstamp Pro Live Screen!
This is still going to be a limited access product, but for March Madness, we're going to be opening up spots for anyone to claim!
DM us if you're interested! First come, first serve.
🚨 Huge news! 🚨
After many months of development, we're officially going public with the Betstamp Pro Live Screen!
This is still going to be a limited access product, but for March Madness, we're going to be opening up spots for anyone to claim!
DM us if you're interested! First come, first serve.
Betstamp PRO was built for bettors who move numbers and need to know where to execute next.
Real-time updates across sportsbooks and prediction markets matter when you're scaling into a position.
Taking a second to shoutout @betstamp pro odds screen.
I just took all the available liquidity left for an NBA total on an exchange.
I then wanted more and there was available chunks at the same line for 53c or 1 point worse at 50c.
I switched my tab back to betstamp pro because I know I just I moved the number, and wanted to double check I knew which next chunk to take at best value.
By the time I changed tabs it had already updated. No refresh, no wait time... it was maybe 5-10 seconds between submit and recheck.
That kind of speed is unbelievably important to me.
Thank you betstamp pro - best odds screen ive ever used.
Feel free to guess what it was, I'll share tomorrow on the livestream at 11am ET when I review this game.
This might be controversial, but…
Super Bowl LX is the easiest game I've seen in years to turn $100 into $3,200.
You just have to know where to look.
Here are 6 SBLX picks you need:
Instead of asking Chat GPT for the best Super Bowl bets, spend $0.99 to use the tool that the sharpest prop bettors in the world are using! 📈
Link in bio.
I mentioned this 99c betstamp offer in my livestream and newsletter yesterday.
Highly recommend people partake.
Best odds screen I've ever used, and I use it every day currently.
🚨 $0.99 drop for #SBLX Weekend
Use the props screen that powers professional betting operations.
This kind of access doesn’t come around often. Built for bettors uncovering and scaling edges.
➡️https://t.co/sEieTIx95V
🚨Join us at 1:00 PM ET for our Super Bowl Prop Extravaganza!🚨
Our most popular show of the year is back! 30 Guests, 5 hours long & hosted by @robpizzola
Presented by: @FDSportsbook#FDPartner
As we approach the Super Bowl, you are going to see a lot of Super Bowl prop trends posted, which is basically the laziest form of analysis and/or engagement farming.
“Shortest TD under has hit 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls” tells you basically nothing without price and context. Different teams, different play styles, different totals, different red zone tendencies, differences in the way the game is officiated. It’s not one repeating experiment. 8/10 on something across 10 different games with 20 different teams doesn’t mean it’s due or predictive.
From 2009–2014 we had 4 safeties in 6 Super Bowls. That didn’t mean safeties were suddenly a 67% event going forward.
Trends aren’t edges. The question is always the same... is the price good? The only thing that matters is the price.