Bitcoin Regime

Bitcoin regime intelligence. Value anchors & behavioral flows. Probabilistic risk framework.

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

✅Recent & Top buyers are selling!

💎Not old hands.
🪎Not deep-value holders.
👇Not the cohort sitting below spot.

Price buckets redistribution show supply leaving the top and getting absorbed lower:

🟢 Below 59K: only -19.9K BTC
🟢 59K-72.8K: +692.4K BTC
🔴 72.8K-$81.2K: -561.9K BTC
🔴 Above $81.2K: -108.1K BTC

This is not broad market capitulation.

This is recent and top buyers running out of patience.

The storm exposed weak conviction, not structural weakness.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

Who is actually selling #Bitcoin here?

😉Positive news....
Not the cohort sitting deep below spot.
Not the holders with a low cost basis.
Not the old hands panic-selling the bottom.
The pressure is coming from the recent top buyers.
The URPD redistribution map is very clear:

🟢 Below $59.0K: only −19.9K BTC moved — almost no selling from holders with a lower cost basis
🟢 $59.0K–$72.8K: +692.4K BTC absorbed
🔴 $72.8K–$81.2K: −561.9K BTC distributed
🔴 Above $81.2K: another −108.1K BTC released
The supply pressure is overwhelmingly coming from recent top buyers, not from the cohort sitting comfortably below spot.

Spot is now around $63K, while the Short-Term Holder cost basis near $ 74.6K.

That tells the story.
A large cohort bought late, close to the local top.
They spent months underwater.
Each failed bounce offered an exit.
Eventually, many accepted the loss and transferred their coins into stronger hands lower down.
This is not broad-based capitulation across the entire market.

It is a cleansing of the recent buyer cohort.

The real question is no longer whether top buyers are selling.

They clearly are.
The real question is whether the market can keep absorbing their supply around the low-$60Ks without breaking the newly formed shelf.

🔥So far, 692K BTC of absorption says the bid is very real!!!
Cut the noise, look into data!
Powered by Data from @ResearchBTCNow
#BTC #Crypto

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

I think there’s a strong counterargument here.

This view assumes underwater supply must eventually capitulate before a sustained recovery can begin.

But current data shows only a relatively small portion of the $80k–$126k supply has actually been redistributed so far. Most of it remains dormant despite the drawdown.

A coin bought at $100k is not resistance unless the holder decides to sell it.

With ETFs, corporates and long-term allocators playing a much larger role than in previous cycles, cost basis alone may no longer be a reliable proxy for future sell pressure.

The question isn’t where the coins were acquired.

The question is whether they’re being spent.

In the ETF era, underwater supply ≠ overhead supply.

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

Who spent during the storm?

Bitcoin’s fall from $71K into the low $60K triggered one of the broadest redistribution events of the recent decline.

💥More than 500K BTC changed cost basis!

Let’s look under the hood.

The first pain came from price back from October 2025.

Then came the harder part: time!

Each failed bounce offered hope.
Each rejection extended the discomfort.
Eventually, some holders had spent long enough underwater to accept the loss.

Supply abandoned higher
🔴 $70.6K–$71.3K: −56K BTC
🔴 $71.3K–$72.0K: −57K BTC
🔴 $72.8K–$73.5K: −149K BTC
🔴 $73.5K–$74.2K: −39K BTC

The pattern is consistent with recent buyers capitulating after a prolonged period underwater.

But coins do not disappear.
They migrate.

Supply re-clustered lower:
🟢 $63.3K–$63.9K: +116K BTC
🟢 $63.9K–$64.5K: +50K BTC
🟢 $66.5K–$67.2K: +69K BTC
🟢 $67.2K–$67.8K: +39K BTC
🟢 $69.9K–$70.6K: +100K BTC

The clearest shift was from the $71K–$74K shelf into a new accumulation zone around $62K–$68K.

This is what a market reset looks like:
not only a drop in price, but a transfer of ownership from exhausted holders🫳 to buyers willing to absorb supply when confidence is scarce🫴!

Now the real test begins:
Can the new holders defend the shelf they just built? 🦬
Data is Driven by @ResearchBTCNow
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@scottmelker Good luck with that! 😉

[_Checkonchain @_checkonchain]

Resilience as an investor is all about how quickly you can rebound from the shock value of a market move, and adjust to the cards that lay on the table.

In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines Bitcoin's latest sell-off, how investors are responding beneath the surface, and what the probabilities suggest about prices at 66k.

Get it here: https://t.co/Gu1xKqd46w

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@SullyMichaelvan This is GOLD! Thanks for sharing Michael…

[Michael Sullivan @SullyMichaelvan]

https://t.co/MsiOlu9QjK

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@swissblock__ Nice!

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

🧲 Bitcoin has now reached the last major magnet below.

When BTC moved from $73k toward $70k on 01 June, price moved into the final visible pocket of supply beneath.

The hourly UTXO Realized Price Distribution makes the shift visible:
$73k rejection → $70k magnet filled → price testing the support shelf.

⚠️It is now sitting directly on a broader $66k–$70k support shelf where ≈1.1M BTC is roughly is!

Can this bottom shelf absorb the pressure and form a base?

🟢 If supply continues clustering around $66k–$70k, it would suggest buyers are absorbing coins and building a stronger floor.

🔴 If the shelf breaks, the structure becomes more fragile because the market would lose its nearest meaningful support zone.

Now we watch whether the shelf holds.
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #URPD #Crypto
🔥Driven by Data from @ResearchBTCNow

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@10xResearch Indeed. This is interesting to see… The URPD looks like moving lower is very hard at the moment… Time will tell.

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

Back then we showed the possible path. Here we are! #Bitcoin #BTC

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

😫So… is Bitcoin under pressure?
Let’s break it down.
Since 15 May, BTC dropped from ~$81.3k to ~$77.6k.
On the surface, that looks weak.

And yes, there is clear stress:
🔻 Price moved lower...
🔴 Realised Profit/Loss was negative in most frames
⚠️ BTC is trading below key levels - STH cost basis and True Market Mean
🟢 But the active $76k–$82k zone still absorbed +112k BTC net

At the same time lower and upper zones thinned slightly:
🟢 Lower support zone
$66k–$71k
-22.5k BTC
🔴 Upper resistance zone
$84k–$90k
-7.4k BTC

The current trading range absorbed the supply.
That suggests while weak hands are being flushed out, demand is still stepping in around $76k–$78k.

💡The key nuance:
Demand exists here — but BTC is still trading below important behavioural levels.

Now the real question is simple:
Is $76k–$78k becoming the base for the next move higher… or just a temporary absorption shelf below STH cost basis? Time will show..

#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #URPD

🔥Data is powered by @ResearchBTCNow

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

Considering the URPD distribution and where are we now at $75 it’s looking probable moving to the next shelf of support at $70k to fill the gap. #BTC #Bitcoin

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

Bitcoin’s lower-range test is getting interesting. 👀

🧲The gap below we had worked as a magnet!

On the hourly frames during the drop, the $75k–$79k buckets started to capitulate. 🔴

That looks like weak hands getting flushed out.

Coins that were sitting higher in the active structure began repricing lower — not panic in isolation, but supply rotating into a new cost-basis zone.

Now the map looks different. 🟠

The low-$72k area has filled heavily, suggesting stronger hands may be starting to absorb the forced selling. 🟢

Below this zone, there is still a support shelf — and it’s not trivial. If macro pressure comes back, Bitcoin may still need to prove that shelf is real. ⚠️

For now, the structure looks like:
upper range rejection → weak hands capitulate → lower range absorption by stronger hands

The next question is simple:
Was this a healthy reset into support or just the first leg of a deeper repricing?
Let’s see what the world brings to the table. 🌍
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC

🔥Data is powered by @ResearchBTCNow

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

Is #Bitcoin going lower and dead?

Through April and May, supply pushed back into the $78k to $82k range — but instead of breaking higher, momentum failed.

Now the map is shifting lower.

Supply is rotating back into the active range, while the lower gap toward the low $70k area remains open.

🧨This does not mean Bitcoin must crash!

But it does suggest the market may need one more lower-side test before a cleaner accumulation base can form...😉

⚠️Now the low $70k zone is the real test.
There is a shelf of support at $66k - $71k !
Let's see it we'll get there...🙃

🔥Driven by Data from @ResearchBTCNow

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@Jamie1Coutts Great point. Looks obvious - well done mate!

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@cryptoquant_com Great! Inbuilt it into the platform to use seamlessly 😉

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

@_DannyKnowles @_Checkmatey_ Great episode. Thanks guys!

[Bitcoin Regime @BitPrintzz]

⛈️Is Bitcoin sitting above a thin support shelf?

Looking at the latest hourly URPD map, one thing stands out:
❗️Below current price, the $71.3K–$75.7K zone holds roughly ~448K BTC.

That is not “empty space.”

But it is also not the same kind of dense supply wall we see around the current/upper cost-basis structure.
When lower buckets are relatively thinner, price can move through them faster IF demand fails to absorb the sell pressure.

Then if price loses the current bucket and fails to reclaim STH cost basis / True Market Mean near ~$78.3K–$78.4K, then the $71K–$76K zone becomes the next important test.

Watch the buckets, not just the candles.
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #URPD
🔥Data is Powered by @ResearchBTCNow