Macro Man

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

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[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

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[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

14/01/2025

Been saying it since the start of the year but I dont think the FED will cut in 2025

[qm @quantymacro]

diagnosing ML models for noob modelers

sorry friends for the delay I have been taking a break from anything maths related. turns out there are more to life.

as usual giving access to some who RT. but if not that's fine too. life is too short.

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

28/04/2025
Week Ahead: Quiet before the storm

Container ship arrivals are on everyones mind (thanks Dr.Slok)

WTI looking cheap again here as assets reversed trends today in what looks to me as nerves/profit taking ahead of macro vol from data.

https://t.co/8ATsKKrK07

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

17/04/2025
Out of this now at $63.96, not a bad shout and quicker than I thought

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

16/04/2025
Long WTI @ $61.46. Floor in high 50’s due to US oil majors MPC and demand woes seem overdone. Price suggests wait and see atm. Suspect news on OPEC or Iran will be the trigger for a breakout. Risk profile here asymmetric.
https://t.co/ZQIGIuHEJk

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

16/04/2025
Long WTI @ $61.46. Floor in high 50’s due to US oil majors MPC and demand woes seem overdone. Price suggests wait and see atm. Suspect news on OPEC or Iran will be the trigger for a breakout. Risk profile here asymmetric.
https://t.co/ZQIGIuHEJk

[qm @quantymacro]

now that the "tariff/trade war regime" is here, probably a good time to post this

the only exception I make for "regime" based models in quant trading

w python lgbm code
as usual giving access to some who RT

ref @macrocephalopod @AgustinLebron3 @choffstein

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

31/03/2025
New substack for this week:
For me, the market can certainly slide further but the “taking stock” period where people re-assess Trump’s implications for growth, jobs, and inflation is done....

https://t.co/UB5qZ7lvjK

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

@negitrage This is symmetric as well right. Should they cut due to labour market weakness and growth slowdown with inflation in the 2s, even high 2s, they wont bat an eyelid or you disagree? Sense is that FED more reactive to growth concerns atm

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

12/03/2025

CPI softer than expected. SPX still red despite trying to rally, commods up, 2Y touching 4%. Odd px action, would’ve expected this print to re-enforce the 3 cuts being priced and see equities rally but guess liquidity running out, slide in BTC suggests this is the case. Still like fading SOFR Z25.
#cpi #sp500 #FED

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

https://t.co/6RtEgZo9LK

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

09/03/2025

Week Ahead

Well, last week was eventful. The main price drivers were tariff related headlines as focus intensified on US growth scares due to tariffs etc.

The Jan CPI print shocked markets that had taken their eye off the ball on CPI. This print will confirm or deny (likely confirm IMHO, but happy to be wrong here) the inflation doubter camp that has been shouting about seasonality effects in Jan.

Should we get a strong print or see higher than expected m-o-m there is downside to equities, clearly upside to rates that now expect three cuts, and controversially I think neutral gold which seems to be struggling to catch a bid at these levels. Overall, I think the market really cannot accept the idea that inflation is not yet dead. My personal favorite view here is fading SOFR Z25 here. If we get a soft print I can see a broad-based equity rally and S&P closing the week back above $6,000 albeit only temporarily.

The main thing I expect from Trump is commentary that he will take a hit on near-term US economic growth. As a result, I expect rates will bull-flatten. In my view we won’t see major growth impacts this year allowing the FED to keep rates high to fight inflation. Market overstating growth impacts in the direct-near term. On specific equities, I dont see Mag 7 ending in the green this week.. Overall, its looking like a red week ahead for risk assets.

Either way, this week is looking like a juicy one for vol!

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

09/03/2025
Just posted my first substack macro primer on US inflation "Macro Pillars: US inflation, what’s the craic?". Mainly for me to note some thoughts down. It outlines consensus, my thoughts, and how we arrived where we are today. I will be posting a follow up with trades in the coming days. https://t.co/GM5Z18AdJ5

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

@quantymacro Positioned for a miss or a beat?

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

05/03/2025

Seems like everyone is on edge waiting for a NFP miss on Friday to pile onto the "Growth slows FED must cut". Risks seem asymmetrically skewed to the upside IMHO, prefer short-end yields to equities as the trade. Can see equities struggling to move on macro atm, more trump focused.

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

04/08/2025

US2Y at 3.89% nearing pre-election levels.

Three and a bit cuts priced for Z5 now. Far too many imho. FED will need to see job market weakness before they go with CPI at 3%. Tariff impact time on growth and then labour market won’t be seen for at least a month.

#trump #FED

[qm @quantymacro]

new post dropped

long, long, long thoughts on backtesting in low frequency space.

ref: @macrocephalopod @therobotjames @choffstein @__paleologo @ThePythonQuant @experquisite (yes I did say it's long)

as usual giving access to some who RT

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

02/03/2025

Week Ahead

Below consensus prints in the ISM indicators will cement but not further shock markets into risk asset pullbacks. I see lower prints preventing px recovery rather than deepening .
All eyes will be on Friday as the key figure this week for me in the US is payrolls. Should there be a significant drop in the figure relative to the 133k expectations then there will be serious volatility, particularly in equities. I (and markets) will be looking at the government payrolls figure closely to see the “DOGE” effect. I can see this print being looked through should a softer print be caused by a big drop in this sector (current f’casts around -22k).
Powell also speaks this week following the payrolls data. I’ll be looking at language suggesting the labour market risks are now skewed to the downside. While I have maintained the view that there may not be any cuts in 2025 since the start of the year, the data-dependency of the FED in recent years may get in the way of this. It is easy to shrug of the CPI argument should jobs remain resilient with points such as seasonality, bird flu shock etc.. but a weakening labour market would throw a spanner in the works.

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

14/02/2025
Super interesting px action post CPI, everything reversed following initial sell-off. Tells me liquidity plentiful, and people arent worried about the macro. IMHO we remain in a bull market, currently long gold @ $2910 with tight stop. I see no reason for cuts here.

[Macro Man @Bootz_Man]

14/01/2025

Been saying it since the start of the year but I dont think the FED will cut in 2025