Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP®

Registered Investment Advisor | Portfolio Manager | Breakwater Capital |

[NeilXbt @neil_xbt]

Yale charges $80,000/year for access to Professor Ben Polak!

They put his most important lecture on YouTube for free.

Every negotiation you have ever entered. Every salary you have ever accepted. Every price you have ever set.

The other person was running game theory. Payoff matrices. Dominant strategies. Nash equilibrium. Backward induction.

You were hoping for the best.
That is not a skill gap.
That is a universe gap.

And it has been costing you $20,000. $50,000. $100,000 every single year, without you knowing the name of the thing taking it.

1 hour today closes most of that gap permanently.

The lecture MBAs pay $150,000 to access inside a degree.

Free for you right here.

Bookmark so you do not lose it!

[Dustin @r0ck3t23]

Elon Musk just said the AI community is misunderstanding the math of superintelligence by two orders of magnitude.

Not slightly off. Not directionally wrong.

A hundred times off.

Musk: “Most people in the AI community don’t yet understand. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.”

Everyone is focused on the hardware race. Bigger data centers. More GPUs. Nuclear power plants built to feed the compute.

That’s half the equation.

Musk: “I think we’re off by two orders of magnitude in terms of intelligence density per gigabyte. That’s just algorithmic improvement. Same computer.”

Read that carefully. Not more hardware. Not more energy. Not more capital.

The same machine. A hundred times smarter. Through software alone.

That’s before the hardware improvements compound on top of it.

Musk: “And the computers are getting better. That’s why I think it is a 10x improvement per year type thing. 1,000 percent.”

A thousand percent compounding annual growth rate in raw intelligence.

A system that becomes 10x more capable every twelve months doesn’t follow a linear curve. It doesn’t follow an exponential curve that human intuition can track.

It follows a curve that human intuition cannot simulate at all.

In year one it’s 10x smarter. In year two it’s 100x. In year three it’s 1,000x.

At that point, the gap between that system and a human brain is wider than the gap between a human brain and a calculator.

This is the math the public isn’t running.

The models aren’t just getting better. They are compounding on themselves at a rate that makes every previous technology curve look flat.

Musk: “The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.”

We aren’t approaching superintelligence on the timeline most people imagine.

We are already inside the curve.

[ARK Invest @ARKInvest]

In 2010, 10,000 bitcoin bought two pizzas.
In 2007, Netflix mailed DVDs.
In 1999, Amazon sold books AND lost money every quarter.

People didn’t miss these Big Ideas because they ignored them.
They missed them because they underestimated them.

They saw a product.
Not a platform.
A novelty.
Not a new market.

By the time the scale was clear…
The opportunity was already massive.

Before it becomes obvious…
Own What’s Next.

ARK’s Big Ideas 2026
Coming Soon

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

There's a negative bias in early trading ahead of the June Consumer Price Index. The vibe could shift with the release of the inflation data. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/kCtDhSJtrw

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Early trading features a positive bias after another gain in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite yesterday. Pre-open gains in mega-cap stocks are supporting the broader market so far. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/xoUYle9NvZ

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Stock futures indicate a higher open following another record finish for the major indices yesterday. Pre-open gains in some mega-cap names have contributed to the upside bias. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/nBl4cWaiHo

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Contracts linked to the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading flattish. The muted action this morning follows record closing highs last week for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/qkBe4pxYiU

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Stock futures are mixed and trade flattish. There's a wait-and-see mentality in play following the holiday break and in front of the release of the June Employment Report at 8:30 ET. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/J8xRSu7LFk

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

There's a slate of economic data to get through before today's early close, including the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which declined 2.6% after last week's 0.8% increase. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/ZsMRtNJkAZ

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

There's a negative bias in early action. Pre-open losses in the mega cap space have contributed to the downside bias. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/oX9mu8ucwF

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

The first day of the third quarter features a positive bias in early trading. Pre-open gains in the mega-cap space have contributed to the upside bias. A jump in market rates hasn't deterred upside early action. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/jFpPTlD7XU

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Stock futures indicate a modestly higher open, but things will be subject to change (for better or worse) following the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the May Personal Income and Spending Report. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/Rv5Jg3KfFs

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Stock futures indicate a lower open, pressured by losses in the semiconductor space. Treasury yields are slightly higher than yesterday, which has contributed to the downside bias in equities. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/NSzt4YwiTB

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are lower while the NASDAQ 100 futures move higher, boosted by ongoing strength in Tech. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/uaK1hMln1I

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are lower in early trading while S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures are higher. Treasury yields are lower in front of some market-moving events today. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/EHFlcD1ce7

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

There's a mixed disposition in early trading. There's not a lot of conviction from either buyers or sellers after a solid run for the major indices this month. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/dpPfVnH4KR

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

There's a negative bias in early trading on this quarterly options expiration day, which will result in above-average trading volume. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/h5OaEZ5DML

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

There's a positive bias in early trading driven by pre-open gains in many mega-cap names. Treasury yields are little changed this morning. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/ywyV5lTFsN

[Michael Magruder, WMS, CEP® @BreakwaterCapX]

Stock futures are flattish in front of some potentially market-moving data. The May Retail Sale report will be released at 8:30 ET, followed by the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report. Read more in the Morning Brew. https://t.co/MaI73cCJvd