IF all these conditions are met next week: Shipping is flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is lifted, no further sanctions relief is provided to Iran, and new sanctions are still imposed when evasion is found.
The result would be:
- Oil prices down and stocks starting to refill.
- No tolls or threats to freedom of navigation.
- The regime gets back the $3 billion per week Trump took away with the blockade.
- Iran has no enrichment or ballistic missile production capabilities, no defense industrial base, no real air defense, and existing enriched uranium stockpiles are entombed.
- Iran's economy continues to hemorrhage from the enormous damage of Epic Fury while consumer demand continues to rise without bombs dropping, putting more pressure on the regime from within.
Conclusion: We would be much better off than we were before Operation Epic Fury with a trajectory for more success ahead.
This forecast changes dramatically IF there are side deals for cash release from Gulf countries or access to Qatar or Oman-based escrow accounts; broad oil sanctions waivers; a commitment to stop enforcing sanctions; or other forms of sanctions relief not being advertised.
🚨BREAKING: TRUMP-IRAN PEACE DEAL IS OFFICIALLY REACHED! 🔥
Signing set for June 19 in Switzerland.
Art of the Deal Peacemaker Trump delivers on his birthday!
All military operations terminated immediately. This is HUGE!🇺🇸
As we await more on the Iran front:
Put aside your TDS.
Put aside your TMS — Trump Messiah Syndrome.
Be serious. Evaluate. Verify. Treat every claim with skepticism. Criticize where warranted. Acknowledge where positive.
And try not to use Iran as just another battlefield in your tribal political war.
I know I’m recommending the impossible for too many of you.
This is the version of my recent Substack about @ScottPelley and @60Minutes as this appeared in the @FreeBeacon. There is no paywall. It's free to read. https://t.co/wo2yLB97Kr
Memo to Teddy: Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Bill Gates and so many Dems I dont have enough Twitter space to list them all are in the Epstein Files, and and so what? For all the hoopla surrounding the Epstein Files, we have learned nothing other than people looked the other way from his 2008 conviction for sleeping with a 17 year old prostitute. Trump, meanwhile, broke off all contact years before. So did Clinton. My advice to Teddy: Get a new conspiracy theory that we can laugh at.
Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces have downed all of them in recent hours as traffic flow through the strait continues unimpeded. The international trade corridor remains open for transit.
With a number of my colleagues, we had a 1 hr conference call with a Senior Administration Official - who outlined the terms of the MOU with Iran
1. Nuclear material will be destroyed and removed
2. Nuclear program will be dismantled
3. None of their money released until they perform
4. Strait of Hormuz will be open
5. No Iran funding of terrorist groups
While still playing coy...note this interesting change of tone by @araghchi
'If he is going to win, Platner will need all the help he can get from the New York Times—and it is prepared to deliver.' @FreeBeacon editors
https://t.co/rAkewZgnWW
🚫 CLAIM: Iranian media sources are claiming that Iran has attacked a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz. FALSE.
✅ TRUTH: No U.S. warships have been struck.
🚫 CLAIM: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims that the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
✅ TRUTH: Commercial ships are continuing to transit in and out of the Strait of Hormuz tonight.
Spoke with President Trump tonight as he oversaw the U.S. military strikes against Iran from the Situation Room.
The President told me he spoke directly with Iranian officials tonight who asked him to stop bombing.
49 Tomahawk missiles had been fired by the United States at the time we spoke, along with bombing from fighter jets. Closest target to Tehran was approximately 40 miles outside of the city.
Trump added that the bombing will stop shortly, but that if they don't sign the agreement, "we'll bomb the shit out of them."
President Trump called this "the most violated ceasefire in the history of the world."
Vice President JD Vance told me the United States is dealing with both moderate and more extreme voices in Iran as part of the negotiation process.
More updates to follow on @FoxNews.