Olivia
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aiit
@bryanozie
Joined February 2012
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Crude Oil $CL_f looks setup for a long today.
Took liquidity below London low into a 1h fvg, creating a potential PO3 setup. Ultimate Target is still BPR.
Not gonna lie, this doesn’t sound too good. Wonder if more info is divulged in the coming days.
$TSLA
The S&P 500 gained 3% in March. We just lost the March's gains.
The market seemed fine today until...business inventories came in higher than expected at 10am, and that's after much stronger than expected retail sales data. Yields surged once again.
Like I asked last week, "when will the stock market start believing what the bond market already knows?".
We finally broke structure today and dropped below the 50 SMA. I think this will introduce much more volatility than the painful sideways action. $SPY to $497, $QQQ to $424 seems plausible.
I am happy I sold most of my swings last month. I'm only looking for cheap value here while day trading commodities (oil, gold).
$VIX popped to almost 20 today as Israel is weighing its options pertaining to a strike on Iran.
So far, I personally think that if they do strike it'll be a rather symbolic one. The air space has already been reopened.
If Israel strikes we'll get another pop in the VIX and that's the volatility spike I'll be looking to short.
One of the funniest things I see from trading influencers is when they act like they are unfazed with large wins.
They think it's cool to say shit like "it just becomes a number after a while".
Maybe it's just me but I treat every win as a blessing that deserves respect.
Longer end of the curve going HAM. Another pre-recessionary signal (along with spike in commodities).
Earnings season starts next week followed by FOMC on May 1.
SPY below $508 is a bearish market structure shift.
🔥 $1K trade on crude oil from Friday's livestream
Thesis -
🔑 Took buyside liquidity
🔑 Noticed London/Asia lows still not taken
🔑 Equal highs on 5m/15m, nested in fvg
🔑 Waited for eq highs purge into fvg
🔑 Shorted 2 cons to London low
Livestream win rate insane this year
Gain access here to trade with me live every day: https://t.co/hv9eXBu9xT
Per Electrek, Tesla Rumored To Be Preparing A Massive Round Of Layoffs.
Could be as high as 20%, which is around 28,000 employees.
If earnings on Apr 23 don't show significant decrease in guidance, could be bullish in short term as will lead to possible EPS hike for $TSLA.
A lot of big accounts talking about WWIII and an imminent market crash.
Unfortunately, most of these takes are as clownish as "Iran retaliates, market go down, ok guys?".
Here's an unbiased, nuanced take: https://t.co/X1cJxmk4Bt
Shorting $VIX on every overreaction this week.
Your favorite furu really hoping WWIII escalates overnight so they don’t have to eat their words tomorrow 😂
🔴 An update since I posted this almost 24 hours ago.
- No further escalation so far.
- Israel already reopened its airspace and airlines said "operations were returning to normal".
- US told Israel they will not support a counterattack on Iran.
- US taxpayers will likely be giving more money to Israel when the House introduces new aid bill in the coming days.
For those who were questioning my assessment of the "face-saving" nature of Iran's attack as some quirky idea, watch this video of Trump explaining this exact same scenario when Soleimani was killed 4 years ago. Iran had to "retaliate" but it was the most telegraphed, harmless retaliation...sound familiar?
Also interesting that few large finance influencers who brainlessly tweeted, "Crash coming! WWIII!" strangely and suddenly developed a more nuanced take after my tweet. I won't name names but you see them.
So amusing to see market crash and WWIII tweets by stock experts.
- Israel attacked the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus 2 weeks ago
- Iran couldn’t do nothing because what self respecting country would allow that?
- They decided on a very calibrated and slow drone attack that Israel was well prepared for. They could’ve used ballistic or cruise missiles which are much faster but they didn’t.
- They declared this an appropriate response and considered the matter “concluded”.
- This way they save face and Israel deflects the easy attack.
Netanyahu is fighting for his political life so he could decide to go rogue and respond heavily.
But the US would likely tell him to pipe down because who wants a war with Hezbollah, Yemen, Iran, and Hamas (with Russia backing)?
I personally think the stock market could see an initial drop on Monday but just like when Russia invaded Ukraine, it was one of the biggest reversal days that year…and the market ended green.
But go on and cheer for WWIII so your 3 puts can “print”.
So Israel attacks an Iranian embassy and wants the US to step in when Iran retaliates?
Who else is sick of the US taxpayers funding all this sh*t that has nothing to do with us?
That ain’t a statue, that’s a fuckin’ Lego.
VIX up 20% - 30% today on a less than -2% drop across the board.
Now you know why I’ve been hammering on about $VIX calls all year in my videos as the better hedge vs shorting the market.
Options selling is cool...until shit gets real and you have to learn how to trade to avoid getting raked.
Shout out to @TanjaTrades for joining the trading stream this morning & for donating to St Jude.
Every livestream since '21 has been a St. Jude fundraiser & I haven't taken a dime on streams.
Also shout out to Sultan who always donates a portion of his winnings on stream.
Day Trading Futures Live | Consumer Sentiment https://t.co/Qu0L3TNVzN
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