Always ask oneself:
+ Is this an A+ setup?
+ What's the Risk to Reward Ratio?
+ What's the invalidation level?
+ Will this trade cover execution costs?
#trade $BTC
$BTC D1 Update
Liquidated the sunday bears and now we broke out of the longer term diagonal.
See some decent volume on the breakout, but still stuck in a pickle here; wedged below the pyLow but above the developing yearly VWAP (73.94k). Was looking for more of a decisive break that breaks all the barriers at once.
Bulls will need to push higher on this move, any reclaim back below yVWAP and more importantly previous day POC (73.1k) we may trend all the way back to the channel lows.
Interesting to see that on the whole move up Coinbase was a net spot seller. OI also surged back to pre Sunday dump levels and funding trending higher.
Gun to my head this looks more and more like a raid to test local highs and the flush out the OI on the way down.
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$BTC high time frame thoughts
been a while since I've updated our views on higher timeframe, since its almost month end and its the weekend let me share my thoughts.
TLDR;
Daily timeframe on life support; break of structure key area support at 63.5k, if broke we go lower
Weekly/monthly: 58k an important level to watch. last line of defense around low 50k. If we see support structure forming watch how it reacts when we break into the diagonal resistance.
Daily
As we called it in our previous posts, we've taken profit at around 74k when it first contested near pyLows (74.5k), and when it did retest it faked everyone out and drove the price back into the expanding wedge.
We are now trading on the lower band of the of wedge and are in danger of breaking. Throughout this range net CVD seems to be positive meaning longs are slightly offside.
If we are to break this wedge support, bulls have a nPOC (~63.5k) to defend as we're seeing alot of aggressive shorts still trapped at that area, but if we lose it we'll need to look further out into weekly to find the next area of support.
Weekly
Zooming out onto the weekly, we've attempted to break out of last cycle's value area (on that one green weekly candle between 9-16 March), but got rejected at pyLow/ yVWAP and now we're back in the white box. Given its still a rather large volume node here unless something really bad happens the bottom of the box (around 53k) hopefully should give some support in the mid term. We also have a monthly nPOC at 58k we have yet to clean which could prove to be a strong support (more on monthly later).
You can see that on daily and weekly chart that we're forming a diagonal resistance and looking at past price action it does like to tend to gravitate towards testing the diagonal - however we'll need to see some form of support structure forming first which we're still waiting for confirmation.
Monthly
Similar to the weekly chart, there's a similar value area box highlighted which is crucial to maintain support. you can see that the 58k nPOC is just right under the monthly support area which if challenged I'm hoping to see some higher time frame reversal candle forming. Losing this level on monthly could be catastrophic because we don't really have much value area support until we're back to 25-30k area. A bit too far to read at the moment but also mindful to have these levels drawn out in case we see some black swan event playing out.
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$BTC
unfortunately we broke below the structure and bears are advancing lower. We're still seeing a bullish divergence against spot but the gap is closing quickly.
Eyeing for a sweep of the 06Feb wick lows and/or around 58k as the next level of support here.
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The only 2 min Speech at Davos that matters the coming years the Trump Administration is in power.
What's your:
1) High conviction A+ setup entry criteria?
2) Pre-determined stop-losses
3) Rules for having the courage to fight for price?
WATCH:
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90% of traders lose 90% of their capital within 90 days by 'predicting price' vs. 'operating a system'
An operator approaches the market differently than a predictor.
---
#1
Predictor asks: What will price do?
Operator asks: What will I do when price does X?
---
#2
Predictor tries to be right.
Operator tries to be consistent.
---
#3
Predictor attaches identity to outcomes. A losing trade means they were wrong, stupid, not good enough.
Operator attaches identity to process. A losing trade taken with discipline is a win. A winning trade taken outside the rules is a failure.
#trade #learn $BTC
$BTC pre NYO
Seems price is chopping/consolidating here. Will need to see how NY reacts when open, but below are the ranges to consider.
We've been bouncing off the yearly VWAP (developing) on every dip. Look for signs of weakness/breakdown if we decide to flip to the underside.
On the other hand, bulls may reclaim their momentum once we clear the congestion at around 94k.
BTC yearly candle review 🧭
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