Craig Helmstetter

Data Geek, PhD Sociologist, Minnesotan. Member: @ASAnews @AAPOR. Former: Managing Partner, @APMResearch at @AmPubMedia|@MPR, @WilderFdtn/@MNCompass, @MNLegAud

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Also find me on

Bluesky:
https://t.co/I6k5h13Hml

Threads:
https://t.co/Ee5FufKk9K

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

You heard the debate, now see what the polls about the Tafoya - Flanagan race for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat

https://t.co/8yFsKmGKjy

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Minnesota election polling roundup (Oct. 14 update)

New @KSTP / @surveyusa poll appears to show DFL in better place than in mid-September, but *close* races across the board: Senate, AG, Sec of State, State Auditor -- even Governor!

See with other polls:
https://t.co/8yFsKmHi96

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

New data from Minnesota’s Secretary of State:

🗳️ So far this year 519,813 Minnesotans have requested absentee ballots, and 202,252 have already been accepted as votes

https://t.co/yPSNxFUGgW

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Minnesota election polling roundup (Oct. 15 update)

I added a summary table!
And an October polling average that shows DFL leading in the races for Governor, Attorney General (still close) and Senate (still very close)

https://t.co/8yFsKmGKjy

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Minnesota election polling roundup (Oct. 14 update)

New @KSTP / @surveyusa poll appears to show DFL in better place than in mid-September, but *close* races across the board: Senate, AG, Sec of State, State Auditor -- even Governor!

See with other polls:
https://t.co/8yFsKmHi96

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Minnesota election polling roundup (Oct. 14 update)

New @KSTP / @surveyusa poll appears to show DFL in better place than in mid-September, but *close* races across the board: Senate, AG, Sec of State, State Auditor -- even Governor!

See with other polls:
https://t.co/8yFsKmHi96

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

PS. Not saying that MN's Flanagan - Tafoya U.S. Senate race isn't close. Even in more recent polls it is still very close

https://t.co/bU7CQfcw1d

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

@galendruke @NateSilver538 @ClareMalone Just listened to latest still counting. Good stuff!

On MN..
1) Most fraud perps were citizens/had legal status
2) that co/efficient poll had Klobuchar's favorability underwater, so - ??

Thx for nat'l context on nonbluewave in blue states!

[BLS-Labor Statistics @BLS_gov]

CPI for all items increases 0.6% in September; gasoline rises #BLSData https://t.co/cEp3k5mcdM

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Among the striking crosstabs from today's Minnesota Poll (@StarTribune|@kare11/@MasonDixonPoll)

While over half of all MN voters are VERY confident in an accurate 2026 vote tally, *nearly one-third of MN Republicans express a lack of confidence*

https://t.co/0jlPifldp7

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

More new polls show Klobuchar up in Governor's race, Ellison up in AG race… and possible D flip in MN’s CD1??

Oct. 13th update to Minnesota election polling roundup

https://t.co/8yFsKmGKjy

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

New Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll results from other earlier polls: continued tight Senate race between Flanagan and Tafoya

Oct 12 update of my MN election polling roundup

https://t.co/8yFsKmHi96

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

@DrewSav Agree. Fraud narrative has been successful for MN Rs

We'll see what the Strib's Minnesota Poll shows later this week, but the Senate is not the only close statewide race: AG, SoS, State Auditor all close in most recent polls

https://t.co/4bCtNIdYTU

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

@NateSilver538 Here is a roundup election polling in MN https://t.co/8yFsKmHi96

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

New polls out today show Klobuchar currently ahead in Governor’s race, and a continued tight race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Also: Nearly 128,000 votes have already been cast
https://t.co/4bCtNIdYTU

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

New polls out today show Klobuchar currently ahead in Governor’s race, and a continued tight race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Also: Nearly 128,000 votes have already been cast
https://t.co/4bCtNIdYTU

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

News about @penn_state's @McCourtneyInst's Mood of the Nation Poll

https://t.co/ZbB7t4TUgo

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

I got curious about how absentee voting is going here in Minnesota, so I looked it up and added this graph to the bottom of my MN Polling Roundup.

As of today, Sec. of State is reporting:

424,515 absentee ballots requested

63,396 already accepted

More: https://t.co/yPSNxFUGgW

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Just Updated, with two new polls and the latest forecaster ratings. The upshot: the national blue wave is not notable in Minnesota

https://t.co/8yFsKmGKjy

[BLS-Labor Statistics @BLS_gov]

Both payroll employment (+29,000) and unemployment rate (4.2%) change little in September https://t.co/ZwrVfLviqL #JobsReport #BLSdata

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

...or, if you prefer Medium: https://t.co/lGpUBAJbgw

[Craig Helmstetter @c_helmstetter]

Just Updated, with two new polls and the latest forecaster ratings. The upshot: the national blue wave is not notable in Minnesota

https://t.co/8yFsKmGKjy