Chained

[Chained @Chainedlinked]

@Barchart What could possibly go wrong.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"The odds of an US government shutdown have risen to 90%," per Goldman Sachs.

[Bloomberg @business]

BREAKING: China Evergrande and two listed units have suspended trading in Hong Kong https://t.co/6Ca6RslYqt

[Richard Christopher Whalen @rcwhalen]

Do you think our friends at the @federalreserve realize how close we are to another event a la December 2018? The flight of bank deposits from the outer branches of the depository tree is stunning. Double digit rates of change. @JeffCoxCNBCcom @steveliesman @neelkashkari

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

JPMORGAN: “.. we are not saying that the situation now is the same as in 2007-2008 .. But signs of stress are beginning to appear. .. lags are longer this time, which has resulted in complacency and broad acceptance of the soft landing, or even no-landing, thesis ..” [Kolanovic]

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at new post-2007 highs today, driven by real yields, which closed out at new post-2009 highs. Oil closed at the highest levels in more than a year and the euro is poised to break through 105 vs the dollar. (1/3)

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Congressman slams SEC Chair Gary Gensler for attacking crypto.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

In the near-term, being long the S&P is the same investment position as being short oil & long bonds. Oil now +3% today has driven 10yr yields from down at the open to now up 5 bps and stocks from up to down. At some price ($95-100?), the cure for higher oil will be higher oil.

[Peter Boockvar @pboockvar]

COSTCO CEO said "I've gotten a couple of calls that people have seen online that we've been selling gold - 1 ounce gold bars, yes, and when we load them on the site, they're typically gone within a few hours and we limit two per member." #gold

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

The Fed always gets what it wants. This policy overshoot will lead to a recession, likely some sort of credit event, a shift towards disinflation/deflation and far lower bond yields even if from higher levels than today.

Read my full note here:

https://t.co/TIpjdg8El0

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

JUST IN: #Bitcoin spot ETF approval could spark $600 BILLION allocation by fund managers to Bitcoin and crypto - Bernstein Research

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Kevin O’Leary says a coming real estate collapse will lead to ‘chaos’ and banks "are going to fail because up to 40% of their portfolio is in commercial real estate."

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

US Home Prices hit a new all-time high in July while affordability has plummeted to record lows.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

BREAKING: $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton filed a 19b-4 for its spot #Bitcoin ETF application, officially starting the clock with the SEC.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Russia and OPEC are now cutting a massive 4 million barrels per day of crude oil production.

This is the highest level of production cuts outside of recessions over the last two decades.

As Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day, supply is going to remain limited for a while.

OPEC has proven multiple times over the last three years that they are committed to higher oil prices.

Energy resources are now more important than ever.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

JUST IN: Nearly 700 US banks now exceed the 2006 Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan concentration guidance.

What is the CRE loan concentration guidance?

It's guidance by the FDIC for the amount of exposure that small banks should have to CRE loans.

Currently, small banks hold over 70% of CRE loans which is $2 trillion worth of loans.

Meanwhile, $1.5 trillion of CRE loans are set to be refinanced at much higher rates by 2025.

All as office vacancies are at historic highs and CRE prices are in bear market territory.

This is a crisis.

[James Seyffart @JSeyff]

UPDATE: Wow. The SEC just came out SUPER early and delayed the @ARKInvest / @21Shares #Bitcoin ETF filing. This thing wasn't due for a decision until Nov 11.

Also delaying the @GlobalXETFs application which was due Oct 7.

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Congress members ask SEC Chair Gary Gensler to approve Spot #Bitcoin ETFs.

[Bloomberg @business]

The world may not be prepared for a worst-case scenario of Fed rates hitting 7% along with stagflation, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told the Times of India https://t.co/eUHcoTCxgU

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Bond tracking ETF, $TLT, just closed at its lowest level since February 2011.

The ETF is now officially down 50% from its high just 3 years ago in 2020.

Despite volatility returning, bonds are getting crushed with some of the worst selling pressure in history.

Higher rates and record levels of deficit spending have destroyed bonds.

Bonds are no longer the safety trade.