It's going to be a monster day for $TMDX which is currently up +21% premarket but could be up 30-40% by end of day.
$TMDX posted blowout Q1 earnings last night... revenues up 48% YoY and 18% QoQ.
On top of that Q2 flights (which we track daily) are currently trending 17% above Q1 flight numbers so we could be looking at another blowout report in 3 months.
$TMDX also reported $0.70 in eps thanks to 17.9% net income margins. The eps number was 190% above street estimates.
To top it off, $TMDX raised full year 2025 revenue guidance from 22.5% (midpoint) to 30% (midpoint). I've owned $TMDX for 4+ years so I know how the CEO thinks about guidance. If they are raising guidance to 30% after Q1 earnings then it means they have at least 1-2 more raises coming before year end. This is why I think $TMDX does ~40% YoY revenue growth which puts the number at $615-620 million.
$TMDX came into Q1 earnings trading at 5.5x 2025 EV/sales. If you look across growth stocks and medtech stocks, that multiple is way too low for a company growing revenues at ~40% with ~18% net income margins and very little dilution.
I believe $TMDX should be trading at 8-10x NTM EV/sales based on current guidance, current Q2 flight data, 1-2 more guidance increases, OCS 2.0 in the pipeline, KidneyOCS in the pipeline and European expansion coming soon.
NTM revenues should be approx $645M, throw a 9x multiple (very reasonable) on that and you get fair value of $170 per share.
Now let's talk about the 28% short interest and what that might mean. I don't know if we see $TMDX short squeeze higher but it's the perfect setup... big revenue beat, big earnings big, big guidance raise, big gap up and big short interest with 10-12 days to cover.
This is not your typical short squeeze shitco where most investors don't care about the company and are willing to sell on a short term pop. I believe the average $TMDX investors cares about this company, wants to hold for the next 3-5 years and has no interest selling on a pop just so the shorts can cover. We know $TMDX is going to $200+ in the next 12 months and we're here for the ride.
April 2024, $TMDX gapped up +17% at open and closed up +24% on the day.
November 2023, $TMDX gapped up +42% and closed up +51% on the day.
Congrats to all the $TMDX shareholders, you earned this!!!!
After the last two days, RSI (relative strength index) on $SPX (S&P 500) is at 20.6 on the weekly chart and 19.4 on the daily chart.
20.6 on the weekly chart is the 3rd lowest reading in the past ~20 years.
The only lower RSI's over the past 20 years are the Covid lows (March 2020) and the GFC lows (Oct/Nov 2008).
After those $SPX bottoms, the index was up an average of 75% over the next 12 months. No joke. I almost didn't believe it myself, had to double check the charts.
While I certainly don't expect $SPX to be up 75% over the next 12 months, it's very possible we're getting close to a new bottom which means there will be some tremendous buying opportunities in the near future.
I'm confident these numbers are correct however if I'm mistaken feel free to say so.
Beginning in early January, we began acquiring a position in @Uber. Today, we own 30.3 million shares.
I have been a long-term customer and admirer of Uber beginning when Edward Norton showed me the app in its early days. I was also fortunate to be a day-one investor in the company through a small investment in a venture fund.
While a great business, Uber suffered from erratic management. Since he joined the company in 2017, Dara Khosrowshahi CEO has done a superb job in transforming the company into a highly profitable and cash-generative growth machine.
We believe that Uber is one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world. Remarkably, it can still be purchased at a massive discount to its intrinsic value. This favorable combination of attributes is extremely rare, particularly for a large cap company.
We will have more to share about our thinking on the company shortly.
@Jeffdeehan@BarneyPelty Speaking of pickleball, my buddy is doing all 4 restaurants for this new 100,000 square foot pickleball complex going into the Boston area https://t.co/nwBb9FQRF3
Boston Chops and Deuxave’s Chris Coombs gets into the pickleball game with Bosse, an indoor pickleball and culinary complex coming to Natick this fall. https://t.co/eSYnr4vGuW