$FNMA $FMCC after 12 years I sold my Freddie shares, only to put them in FNMA and to offset some taxes from some recent buys. I believe Fannie will be the 1st one to uplist.
The hit pieces on $FNMA $FMCC are not random. This is the old housing crowd, the policy class, and their media friends trying to protect the story they have been selling for years.
@nytimes is quoting Jim Parrott like he is some neutral expert. These are the same people who defended the structure that drained these companies and kept them trapped.
Now with @business we get BOK saying to put the GSEs back inside the government “isn’t a big change at all” and is just “a return to their roots.” That is absurd, and it tells you exactly how they think: permanent government control is fine, the sweep should be memory-holed, shareholder rights are a nuisance, and two of the most important financial companies in the world should be treated like dead wards of the state instead of immensely valuable franchises that were bled for years.
KBW floating ~$200B for the whole business, roughly 6x current earnings, is the same game: lowball the asset and make release look reckless.
But if Trump pulls this off, the public is going to see what really happened. The old story collapses, and a lot of very comfortable people are going to have some explaining to do heading into the midterms.
The swamp is shaking in its boots. They now why Pulte is acting head of DNI and they are desperate to stop the plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
https://t.co/XzUkqM2Gpm
A must watch, superb, long-form interview with Secretary Bessent by the All-In crew in which Fannie and Freddie are discussed as potential core assets in a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, which I discuss below:
The only credible scenario where Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (“F2”) become core assets of a sovereign wealth fund in the @realDonaldTrump administration is a world in which they emerge from conservatorship respecting the shareholders’ place in the hierarchy of claims.
Those that suggest the government will simply convert their already paid off senior preferred stock (“SPS”) into common stock diluting shareholders are missing a few facts:
(1) The SPS has already received $301 billion, $25 billion more than it was contractually entitled to receive, and the excess $25 billion was paid to the government more than five years ago. In other words, the SPS has been fully retired with interest plus a $25 billion overpayment, considerably more in today’s dollars.
(2) Those who argue that the government won’t forgive an asset that currently sits on its balance sheet (as the government did not credit the cash flow sweep payments against the SPS at the time they were paid) have not considered that the government, as the owner of penny warrants on 79.9% of the common stock of both companies, will recover 79.9 cents of every ‘forgiven’ dollar of senior preferred. When you wipe out a liability of a company in which you own 79.9% of the common stock as the residual claimant, you immediately recover 79.9% of the erased liability, in this case, in the increased value of the government’s warrants.
(3) The future value of the $25 billion overpayment to the SPS by the time of F2’s exit from conservatorship is of greater future value than the 21.1% of F2 that will go to public shareholders from the ‘forgiven’ SPS, which fully compensates the government for any ‘leakage’ to shareholders from the public’s 21.1% ownership.
(4) If the government massively dilutes shareholders by converting the SPS to common stock and does not credit the $301 billion cash flow sweep payments and $25 billion overpayment, the trading values of F2 will be permanently impaired, making F2 a poor core asset for a sovereign wealth fund.
What investor, institutional, retail or otherwise will assign a fair value to a company controlled by the government which wiped out the previous investors in the company?
F2 common stock is held by many millions of retail and institutional investors who are @realDonaldTrump supporters. The President has a track record in looking after his constituents and keeping his promises, most notably here in a public letter in 2021 committing to F2’s release from conservatorship. I would not expect him to act differently here.
Lastly, Secretary Bessent’s idea of making Fannie and Freddie core assets of a new U.S. sovereign wealth fund is a superb one. Over the very long term, Fannie and Freddie represent a royalty on first mortgages secured by the US housing market, which is a low-risk, high risk-adjusted return investment that will generate large and growing dividends that can be invested in other sovereign fund assets. The long term returns on F2 will significantly exceed the cost of U.S. Treasurys enabling our country to deleverage over time.
$36 Trillion of debt and growing is a frightening liability for the future. We can address our country’s solvency problem by reducing spending and government waste, but also by increasing the asset side of our country’s balance sheet. F2 can be an important part of the solution.
And the stocks of both companies will trade at a substantially higher price with the US government shares no longer being part of the overhang. Our model assumed the government would be selling its shares ratably over the five years after emergence from conservatorship.
@EricTrump Eric, I know you’re one of the best builders in the world. We really need your help on the $FNMA $FMCC issue to set them free. Your father, the President est. them at 1 Trillion.