Convallax

Options on prediction markets | Trade calls and puts on event probabilities

Backed by @alliance

[Convallax @convallax]

Convallax testnet is now live!

The first options exchange on prediction markets.

Trade calls and puts on event probabilities

Prediction markets made outcomes tradable. Convallax makes the probability itself an underlying.

A whole new era of trading market belief is here!

[Convallax @convallax]

Convallax community is OPEN 🚀

Telegram + Discord are now live for everyone!

All product updates, and Early Access codes will drop in the groups

Early access = test the product, share feedback, and get future perks.

Join in: 👇🏻
https://t.co/nkT1kDM4gt
https://t.co/MI7fHFmQUB

[Kushal Mungee @kushal_mungee]

Prediction markets are one of the few places that turn a private opinion into a public good

If you think an election is closer than the polls say, you can put money on it, and by doing so you reveal something useful to everyone else (especially once this happens in aggregate)

[Convallax @convallax]

@ChaoticAna9 @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Congratulations!

[Convallax @convallax]

Convallax Early Trader Access opens soon.

We’re bringing options on Polymarket with a small private mainnet beta cohort.

Beta users will place trades, share feedback, and help shape the foundation for leverage on prediction markets.

Turn on your notifications and stay tuned!

[Convallax @convallax]

Prediction markets price event odds.

Options on prediction markets price how much those odds may move before resolution.

Convallax is building the implied volatility surface for events: the VIX for elections, rate decisions, sports, war, policy, and everything in between.

[Convallax @convallax]

@rb_tweets This is pure alpha!

[Convallax @convallax]

August volume numbers:

Polymarket + US: $8.16B
Kalshi: $37.17B

Derivatives on prediction markets: $0
The missing layer is obvious.

Prediction markets have scale. Now they need leverage, hedging, and convexity.

That $0 stat will not survive for long.
🔜

[Convallax @convallax]

@0xd1namit Locked in!

[Convallax @convallax]

There's an opportunity and we are building at the forefront of it!

Convallax allows you to trade long term bets with a lower cost of capital via enabling options on Polymarket.

[Leo Adberg @LeoAdberg]

There's an opportunity out there for a prediction market that could handle long-term bets with lower cost of capital.
Every PM nowadays requires you to fully collateralize your positions, and Kalshi is currently the best offering because they'll give you 3.25% interest on the mark-to-market value of positions.
But I can make >3.25% elsewhere so I'd need serious edge to even consider betting on something a year out!
Would love to be able post a non-PM asset as collateral to make long term predictions without insane drag.

[Convallax @convallax]

@LeoAdberg We are building options on Prediction markets and options on longer dated events is exactly something we aim to build!

We have the Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? market as one of the examples listed on our testnet.

Check it out: https://t.co/VQxC0oGMrC

[Convallax @convallax]

Check out- https://t.co/gEZYo6wuJP

[Convallax @convallax]

You can buy a put option on the Fed Rate Hike in 2026 market to express a bearish view.

If the Fed does not hike rates and the underlying Polymarket moves lower or resolves NO, the put can become profitable with a much better payoff.

Multiple expiries, multiple strikes, multiple ways to express a view on this market and make money. How? 👇

[Andy @andyyy]

BREAKING: WARSH SAYS THERE IS ONE SIGNAL THE MARKET CANNOT MISS.

"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving towards our objective at a sufficient speed"

"I stand here today committed to a discipline, not a decision"

HUGE ENDING THERE.

WARSH CONFIRMS NO COMMITMENT TO RATE HIKE WHICH IS MASSIVE FOR CRYPTO RALLY CONTINUATION.

[Convallax @convallax]

@koolkrypto223 Chad! If your view is Clarity/SEC/CFTC regs are coming there's an alternative options trade you can make here.

https://t.co/5wwZAWqe2w

[Convallax @convallax]

Buying call options on 40% strike expiring on Oct 1, with a payoff of 7x if the probability of this market shoots above 47%.

Sep 15 is going to be a major volatility day for the Clarity Act market on Polymarket.

Convallax is the best place to trade this move!

[Convallax @convallax]

Leverage on prediction markets is still a blue ocean: wide open, underbuilt, and inevitable.

Perps don’t fit event markets where probabilities can gap hard.

We are at the forefront, building the options layer for PMs

The next few weeks are going to be exciting!

Stay tuned

[Convallax @convallax]

Trade Convallax on testnet here:
https://t.co/VQxC0oGMrC

[Convallax @convallax]

Polymarket is pricing this market at 56%.
A $5,000 YES bet gives $3,583 upside if the Fed hikes rates this year, potentially in the September FOMC

On Convallax, the same view with call options has up to $9,904 max profit.

That’s the power of options on prediction markets!

[ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ @DeFiTracer]

IMPORTANT:

🇺🇸 FED could hike interest rates by 25 BPS in September

Odds of a rate hike jumped to 40.1% for the first time after the inflation data release

This is not good for markets...

[Convallax @convallax]

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Such an easy and obvious market to bet on. Great find!

[Convallax @convallax]

@DansonFerdinand 🔜🔜

[Convallax @convallax]

Buying call options on 40% strike expiring on Oct 1, with a payoff of 7x if the probability of this market shoots above 47%.

Sep 15 is going to be a major volatility day for the Clarity Act market on Polymarket.

Convallax is the best place to trade this move!

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Today’s message from @POTUS was clear: This Administration is committed to passing the Clarity Act — answering voters’ call for consistent rules for crypto.

Regulators @SECPaulatkins and @chairmanselig are aligned, Congress has set a date, and the entire industry is ready to get this across the finish line.

67M Americans own crypto, and they want this legislation. I’m confident the Senate will listen. Contact your lawmakers today — let’s get this done!

[Convallax @convallax]

@DansonFerdinand Hey, not really. The pricing model for these options are a bit different from traditional options. Will share more info around this soon

[Convallax @convallax]

You can buy a put option on this market to express a bearish view and make a profit as long as the probability stays below 20%.

Multiple expiries, multiple strikes, multiple ways to express a view on this market and make money.

How? Check out👇
https://t.co/VQxC0oGMrC

[Niakris @13_niakris]

Galaxy just cut CLARITY Act probability to 10%

In May they gave it 75%.
By late July it was 30%.
Now Alex Thorn puts it at 10%.

Main reasons:
Unresolved ethics language.
Bank pressure on stablecoin yields.
Almost no legislative time left after September 14.

Polymarket is currently at 19%.
The market moved first.
Research is only now catching up.

When that happens -
the remaining edge is usually smaller.

Right now the calendar is the real problem.