Corey Wallace 🇳🇿

Kanagawa University.🇯🇵 domestic/security politics, East Asia geopolitics. Via Freie Universität Berlin 🇩🇪, University of Auckland 🇳🇿.

[Tomohiko Satake 佐竹知彦 @SatakeTomohiko]

高市首相の訪豪に先立ち、ANUのシロー・アームストロング教授と日豪関係に関するコラムを執筆しました。防衛面に限定されない総合的な安全保障協力を構築すべきとの趣旨です。

[East Asia Forum @east_asia_forum]

Tokyo’s expansion of defence exports is less a rupture with pacifism than the culmination of decades of incremental loosening, writes Corey Wallace.
https://t.co/Q0XMg8lWJ0

[Seattle Seahawks @Seahawks]

SUPER BOWL LX CHAMPIONS ‼️

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

@wataruen It is. I’m gonna come visit. Crazy how you sometimes you visit people less when they’re closer by.

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

#24years

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

@wataruen Curious indeed! Kurt Cobain, Ichiro and weird recurring dream about Spokane about sums it up.

[Daniel Kramer @DKramer_]

Cal Raleigh has done it.

No. 6⃣0⃣ -- and this place is going nuts.

[Alex Mayer @alexmayer34]

The last time the @Mariners won the AL West…

Cal, 4 years old
Logan, 4 years
Naylor, 4 years
Robles, 4 years
Canzone, 4 years
Kirby, 3 years old
Brash, 3 years
Bryce, 3 years
Muñoz, 2 years old
Hancock, 2 years
Woo, 1 year old
Julio, 8 months
Cole, not born
Harry, not born

[井形彬（Akira Igata） @AkiraIgata]

12.3 第三セッションのお題はNATOと連携を進めるインド太平洋の四か国「IP4」。🇯🇵 坂出健（京都大学）, 🇰🇷 ボー・ラム・クウォン（韓国国防研究員）, 🇦🇺 クレア・エリアス（豪大使館）, 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace（神奈川大学）の議論をクリスティン・イグラム大使@NorAmbTokyo (@NorwayinJapan)がモデレート

[井形彬（Akira Igata） @AkiraIgata]

Dec.3: Session 3 focused on the "IP4" countries that are increasing their collaboration with NATO. Takeshi Sakade (Kyoto U) 🇯🇵, Bo Ram Kwon (KIDA) 🇰🇷, Claire Elias ( @AustraliaInJPN)🇦🇺, @CoreyJWallace (Kanagawa U) 🇳🇿, moderated by Amb. Kristin Iglum @NorAmbTokyo (@NorwayinJapan)

[三春充希(はる)⭐未来社会プロジェクト @miraisyakai]

比例代表全国集計　開票終了

自民　1458万 2690票（26.73％）
立憲　1156万 4217票（21.20％）
国民 　 617万 2427票（11.32％）
公明 　 596万 4415票（10.93％）
維新 　 510万 5127票（ 9.36％）
れいわ 380万 5060票（ 6.98％）
共産　 336万 2966票（ 6.16％）
参政　 187万 0347票（ 3.43％）
保守　 114万 5622票（ 2.10％）
社民 　 93万 4598票（ 1.71％）
みんな 　 2万 3784票（ 0.04％）
安楽会 　 1万 8455票（ 0.03％）

ただし、まだ若干の票の訂正がありえます。

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

@Cadeyrnn With 6 million PR votes, many that might make a difference in SMDs, (albeit not this time), LDP still stuck with Komeito. Might be more of an immediate issue for Komeito in terms of what to do with the LDP as a partner!

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

DPFP did much better than they expected...giving away seats! (Basically they did not have enough names left on the PR list after many candidates unexpectedly were elected in single member districts)

[NHKニュース @nhk_news]

国民 比例代表で名簿不足 3議席が他党へ 衆議院選挙
https://t.co/m9WtfGEy4I #nhk_news

[Rintaro Nishimura | 西村凜太郎 @RinNishimura]

DPFP leader Tamaki Yuichiro revealed that he met RENGO President Yoshino Tomoko and told her that his party has no plans to join the LDP-Komeito coalition, instead opting to discuss policy cooperation with the LDP, CDP, and other interested parties.

https://t.co/5Lsl2kL4dR

[前田 耕 (Ko Maeda) @MaedaPoliSci]

じゃあ、公明を抜く連立は？
自191+維38+自民系無所属6を合わせると235で過半数に届く。
でも、↓の論文で説明したように、自民にとって公明は議席数だけのパートナーじゃなくて、各小選挙区での票の底上げのための、離れられない仲。切るのは難しい。

https://t.co/LRB4rYMiZe

[前田 耕 (Ko Maeda) @MaedaPoliSci]

公明党にとっては、維新は大阪の4選挙区で全敗の屈辱を味わわされた相手だし、国民民主党は石井代表を破った敵だし、まさか連立相手として認められないだろう。
だから、自公維や自公国の連立というシナリオは考えにくいと思います。
（↓続く）

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

DPFP and Ishin will be wary of growing too close to the LDP (as Komeito has been rudely awakened to!). They have both put a lot of effort into differentiating themselves from both the LDP and CDP as the "constructive opposition." Joining a ruling coalition might make that harder.

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

Important numbers. A simple majority not enough to ensure smooth lawmaking/policy implementation. May, however, make more sense for Ishiba/LDP to hammer out a "confidence and supply" agreement with both DPFP and Ishin (as insurance so one party on own cannot hold LDP to ransom)

[Rintaro Nishimura | 西村凜太郎 @RinNishimura]

Road to majority for LDP & Komeito = + 18
To stable majority = +29
To absolute stable majority = +46
To supermajority = +95

DPFP alone could provide simple majority, while Ishin alone could provide up to stable majority. Together, a 4-party arrangement hits absolute majority.

[Corey Wallace 🇳🇿 @CoreyJWallace]

In such a case, LDP/Komeito coalition will continue as a minority government, but DPFP and Ishin promise for the time being to support a LDP PM in confidence votes and to passing the budget (with their own goodies thrown in, of course).

[ねこ公爵 ΦܫΦ🎖 @wakastar14]

満面の笑顔だ、石破総理
#自民党総裁選2024