Frog with glasses

swinging narratives. See you in the orderbooks. Honorable profile pic courtesy of @nounsdao

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

It’s really hard to time the top.

Most people aren’t able to, that’s just how the market works. I’ve tried to summarize my thoughts. Personally believe we top around 220k Q1 25 somewhere (hopefully I'm too bearish), but these are kinda the top signs I’ll try to look for moving forward. No single one would be all out sell, will probably be some kind of confluence of signals.

Macro stuff
-When countries/sovereign wealth funds start to show BTC/ETH in their balance sheet
-Companies diversifying their corporate treasuries into BTC
-Several Crypto companies doing IPO
-Rumours of Ethena insolvency or similar crash
-Some hedge fund getting rekt on crypto

Psychological stuff
- Your friend just asked what memecoin he should buy on Coinbase
-When BTC goes parabolical and people start to call for a million this cycle
-Several people on CT quit their jobs to start focusing on the market
-When I see several lambos or expensive watches on my timeline
-Cringe songs about crypto start hitting the timeline
-When Hsaka post some mysterious bearish post, possibly in Confluence with Pentoshi.
-When I want to all in some shitcoin, feeling like I’m in a rush
-When I have serious FOMO
-When I don’t want to sell, and my timeline agree because we’re all rich and price can only go up
-When I consider diversifying my portfolio into NFTs or Ordinals
-When I want to show my portfolio to my gf.
-When I look back on this post and don’t want to take it seriously

Technicals
-PI Cycle highlighting top
-4H W3Q trend indicator flipping negative
-Parabolic trend on daily, steeper and steeper trend lines
-Start to watch btc.d when btc>100k, TP and catch parabolic moves on altcoins before fully cash. Prob march 25?

Thoughts are welcome.

[Ave @avemoongod]

I launched $quack because animal meta was my favorite. Everyone holding their conviction in a random cute animal creates bonds like no other. I round tripped all my gains in 2024 on animal coins and I’ll be happy to do it again on $quack (aka chip)

I bought 60% of supply pre-bond on @printr. All supply will be given out to diamond hands over time. People used to hold 7 figures of cute animal meme coins back in the day and we’re going to do it again.

100% of fees from trading go to liquidity like the good ole days. A real runner can’t survive at high market caps with low liquidity like we’ve had over the last 1+ years with pumpswap. Fees feeding the LP will help the community grow over time with the ability to revive after down trends.

Optimism is the key to winning everything. F the doomers, let’s have some fun.

[Financial Times @FT]

Bitcoin is still about $69,000 too high https://t.co/CNrgxl2vEE | opinion

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@neoavatara Its confirmed yea.

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@faisalislam @nickschifrin https://t.co/4llKYXhSuk

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

Confirmed by prime minister in Norway, here is his answer to the letter:

«I can confirm that this is a message I received yesterday afternoon from President Trump. It came as a reply to a short message I sent to President Trump earlier the same day, on behalf of myself and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb. In our message to Trump, we conveyed our opposition to his increased tariffs against Norway, Finland, and other selected countries. We emphasized the need to de-escalate the rhetoric and requested a phone call between Trump, Stubb, and myself later that day. Trump’s reply came only a short time after we sent the message. It was Trump’s choice to share the message with other leaders in NATO countries.

Norway’s position on Greenland remains unchanged. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark in this matter. We also support NATO strengthening its work, in a responsible manner, to promote security and stability in the Arctic. As for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have on several occasions clearly explained to Trump what is well known: it is an independent Nobel Committee-not the Norwegian government—-that awards the prize.”

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@InsiderGeo This is the whole text:

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

Confirmed by prime minister in Norway, here is his answer to the letter:

«I can confirm that this is a message I received yesterday afternoon from President Trump. It came as a reply to a short message I sent to President Trump earlier the same day, on behalf of myself and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb. In our message to Trump, we conveyed our opposition to his increased tariffs against Norway, Finland, and other selected countries. We emphasized the need to de-escalate the rhetoric and requested a phone call between Trump, Stubb, and myself later that day. Trump’s reply came only a short time after we sent the message. It was Trump’s choice to share the message with other leaders in NATO countries.

Norway’s position on Greenland remains unchanged. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark in this matter. We also support NATO strengthening its work, in a responsible manner, to promote security and stability in the Arctic. As for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have on several occasions clearly explained to Trump what is well known: it is an independent Nobel Committee-not the Norwegian government—-that awards the prize.”

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@KDAltAccount1 @KenGardner11 https://t.co/qCobm5FGp1

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@shashj @Bingethinking_ @Matildathedance https://t.co/4llKYXhSuk

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

Confirmed by prime minister in Norway, here is his answer to the letter:

«I can confirm that this is a message I received yesterday afternoon from President Trump. It came as a reply to a short message I sent to President Trump earlier the same day, on behalf of myself and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb. In our message to Trump, we conveyed our opposition to his increased tariffs against Norway, Finland, and other selected countries. We emphasized the need to de-escalate the rhetoric and requested a phone call between Trump, Stubb, and myself later that day. Trump’s reply came only a short time after we sent the message. It was Trump’s choice to share the message with other leaders in NATO countries.

Norway’s position on Greenland remains unchanged. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and Norway fully supports the Kingdom of Denmark in this matter. We also support NATO strengthening its work, in a responsible manner, to promote security and stability in the Arctic. As for the Nobel Peace Prize, I have on several occasions clearly explained to Trump what is well known: it is an independent Nobel Committee-not the Norwegian government—-that awards the prize.”

[𝖒𝖎𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖊 @miragemunny]

the largest leg up must be preceded by the greatest uncertainty, for it is the invalidation of such great uncertainty that fuels the bulk of such a move

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@CryptoSays @CredibleCrypto @fraxfinance Went the wrong way unfortunately

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@CL207 Curios to see how they will implement large scale storage of that energy.

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

My brother in Christ.

Your original point was that leverage helps reduce counter party risk by letting you keep less capital on exchanges. Conceptually, I agree. But with 200x leverage you’re kinda forced to keep more backup capital/collateral on the exchange just to survive normal volatility.

This discussion isn’t going anywhere, good luck trading 200x leverage without significant collateral on your account. See you in the order books.

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

Let’s say hourly bitcoin std dev is around 0,5 to 1%. With 200x leverage, 1% moves probably trigger liquidation even if you have tight stop loss management. Doesn’t matter if you «risk 1% of the account», your stop is statistically going to be hit a lot. Please backtest it if you do not believe me. Your argument about «professional sizing» is invalid, professionals aren’t bidding bitcoin with 200x leverage. Way too high volatility, a wick might liquidate you before your stop triggers.

Insane to be using «understand cross margin» as an argument when the correct practice when using 200x leverage is to isolate the margin. Cross margin at 200x is asking to be liquidated lmao. Good luck in the orderbooks cross margin trading that leverage sir.

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@vanya2h4u @Nousopher @Aster_DEX Yeah the «less money on cex» argument is legit when using e.g. 5x, but 200x kinda liquidates the funds on the platform in 5 minutes anyway so

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@CrypNuevo Why are you estimating the gap from the last Friday hourly wick, not the close? Just risk adverse because you want to be sure catching it when it fills?

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@lBattleRhino Liquidity just disappears when levels are lost

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@jackbitcoin Or just wick to the bottom before up only

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

Pullbacks hopefully done for now. Q4, ready for some good parabolas

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

Feels a bit like the 2017/18 cycle. If so, all you have to do is nothing. Pullbacks incoming, Q4 mania

[Cryptrus @cryptrus]

@bitcoinpanda69

[Frog with glasses @CroakAssets]

@__bleeker Fair