Cred

Always trader, often shitposter, sometimes educator. @breakoutprop

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[Pinned]

I've updated my list of trading resources.

It's now organised into different categories with additional content.

All free, built over the last 7+ years:

https://t.co/KBW57kT5T0

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@BigCheds Can’t be that hidden if you’re posting about it

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@breakoutprop Damn

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@deltaxbt

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@Innerdevcrypto @DonAlt Like, comment, subscribe, buy my merch, sign up to the newsletter, buy a custom onlyfans video, use my ref link, use code CRED for 20% off your next mattress

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@Innerdevcrypto @DonAlt I basically asked this at the start of this week’s show, Casual Friday™️, just released on YouTube

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@CryptoParadyme You? :3

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This was one of the highest volatility days in recent crypto history.

Was I long the BTC breakout?

No.

Did I catch the HYPE news?

No.

But do I have a tactical pool of capital that’s ready to deploy with a clear plan if a new trend forms?

Also no.

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@TiTan_Web3_ Yes

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Real talk

If you’re on the wrong side during a big move like this, most of your immediate impulses are gonna suck

Greatest hits:

1. Revenge short - Can’t believe I missed this piece of shit scam pumping; it’s up so much it HAS to come down

2. Oversized buy - I will use leverage as a time travel machine to make up for being late

3. TA cope - It has to retest the exact level it broke out from immediately because I watched two whole Babypips videos on 1.5x speed

4. All-or-nothing - My only options are 0%. exposure or 100%, nothing in between exists

5. Deer in headlights - oh geez I guess I should wait for a pullback but no what if the consolidation is the pullback hmm maybe I’ll wait for a range to form but what if that range breaks down do I buy the retest of the breakout or the range reclaim oh man fuck shit what’s Ansem saying

6. Overtrader - I will cement my bloodline on the 5 minute chart; if this next candle is the wrong colour I will either be rich or poor

Just chill out, delete your levels, pretend you haven’t looked at the chart in weeks - fresh eyes

Then it’s the usual list of simple questions:

1. What signals are firing / what do I think is gonna happen

2. What kind of bet am I making (mean reversion/volatility expansion/new trend/momentum/Blackrock scam etc.) and on what time horizon

3. Where am I wrong

4. Does my position size match the current volatility and align with the shape of my trade idea i.e. points 1-3

FWIW I’m washed but gonna try to jam some spot sub 70k. If it gets accepted below 66-67k (retraces the breakout) then I’ll lose money

“Wow it’s up so much what you buy the top?”

Then I’ll lose money and look silly on social media. That’s the cost of doing business (at least the first one).

Just start LARPing like everyone else and instead of saying “I bought the top” say “I aggressively rebalanced when an ensemble of carefully weighed momentum factor signals fired contemporaneously.”

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@0xAphelion I’m here to buy the top in the mid-high 60s and then tell myself it’s a long term DCA hold once it retraces the whole thing

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@DonAlt Maybe you’ll be able to quit your plumbing job now

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This is a huge inflection point for BTC after one of the largest short liquidation events in recent history

I've spent the last 4 hours studying ETF flows, Microstrategy credit facilities, cross-exchange liquidity and funding rates, as well as prime OTC desk inventory

They all point to the same inevitable conclusion:

If it keeps going up, then the market is bullish

If it stops going up and goes down, then the market is bearish

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@DonAlt Skipping Friday show as you’ll be even more insufferable than usual

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@DonAlt The higher it goes, the higher it'll go

Wow, thanks for sharing your "technical" view

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@DonAlt Type of thing you post when you're up 0.8% after holding for 7 months through a 30% drawdown

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@DonAlt

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@deltaxbt This time is different (they're buying my bags instead of me buying their alts and ICOs in 2017)

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@Evan_ss6 tbf how many of us were using BitMEX inverse contract 1x short as a cash account 😭

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@RNR_0 It means people will be more interested if the price goes up

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What reading the timeline feels like nowadays