Naftali Weinberger

Interested in all things causal modeling. Ongoing projects on causal analyses of discrimination and on causation in dynamical systems. @LMU_MCMP

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

Selected papers
Timescale: https://t.co/Ul97J0rjpR
DCMs: https://t.co/kRlhGhkIId
Discrimination: https://t.co/U5lXnpecIa
Mediation: https://t.co/83LlzrNCBS
Faithfulness: https://t.co/ASuhs835wI
Causation and Time: https://t.co/FgHgy3GiNf
Psychometrics: https://t.co/kXblyX4DlM

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

@2Philosophical_ https://t.co/6kJc4a3q7a

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

New video on how to generalize experimental results - Why it’s hard to characterize the problem within standard causal models, how Bareinboim and Pearl's transportability framewore helps, and why extrapolation ultimately goes beyond transportability.

https://t.co/vz8DSnnb4l

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

In the newest episode, I consider the debate over whether demographic variables such as race and gender are causes. In it, I clarify what's at stake, and what the answer does (and doesn't) depend on.

https://t.co/QC4cGJvsuA

[Steven N. Durlauf @sndurlauf]

I am delighted to introduce 6 wonderful Harris PhD students who are on the job market this year.

Claire Fan estimates the economic costs of hydro dams in foreign downstream countries. She finds that despite the lack of a central international authority, countries with cooperative international relations can mitigate these externalities. https://t.co/0Do4F2tQCv

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

A new episode on the Manipulation Theorem, which is not as well-known as it should be, but has hugely influenced philosophers. I cover hard vs soft interventions, why causation doesn't require human agency, and whether causation requires open systems.

https://t.co/fJ0ebg8XtN

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.

https://t.co/vLbG7QHPak

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

In the latest episode, I relate Bostrom's simulation argument to debates over the causal faithfulness condition. I get into interpretations of probability, why "coincidental"≠"improbable", and what it means to assign a probability to a causal parameter.

https://t.co/F7tC2l2VLM

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

I've now posted an episode on the causal faithfulness condition. Faithfulness says much more than just that causal paths don't cancel, and raises foundational questions about causation, probability, and underdetermination.

https://t.co/NlyzH7lLQQ

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

A sneak peak for next week's episode: Does Causation Imply Correlation?

https://t.co/zaLLl2tAWd

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

I'm excited to post this new episode on the causal Markov condition!

https://t.co/inqQBT7qex

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

I just posted a video on the Front-Door criterion, which enables you to identify an effect using mechanisms. This video is more technical than the others, but really illustrates how causal graphs create a bridge between causes and probabilities.

https://t.co/H8E11CEZyT

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

After a bit of a summer pause, I'm back to making episodes. In this episode, I explain the notion of confounding, and clarify why confounders should not be thought of as alternate explanations of an observed effect.

https://t.co/3Ml9bxNgVy

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

@david_lagnado @BetsyOgburn might know something about this. She's been called to testify about evidential relevance in some recent court cases in the US.

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

I decided to make an intro episode, to provide some orientation for the later episodes. In it, I introduce DAGs and explain how causation is a strategy for managing complexity.

I spent a lot of time improving the sound quality, so I hope that paid off.

https://t.co/G9ph8wgFhU

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

@david_lagnado I'd be surprised if this was very helpful, but it popped into my head: https://t.co/CY3CaD2jES

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

@david_lagnado ...it's always great to hear from you. I'd be game for a chat to catch up at some point.

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

@david_lagnado ...also, now that I'm learning more stats, I'm seeing that lots of the measurement issues about categorical vs continuous etc might interact in interesting ways with the causal side of things, though I'm at the beginning of the my thought process there...

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

This clip is the part of the last episode that has so far generated the most discussion.

https://t.co/7RUcH4Pmj0

[Naftali Weinberger @DAGophile]

How can a drug raise the chance of recovery in a population, while lowering the chance in both men and women?

The answer is Simpson's paradox, which still confuses people. Here I clarify it, w/ examples from COVID-19, and testing police discrimination.

https://t.co/b8ApocTFnl