Founder, Retirement Income Warrior | Author of Commanding Retirement Income | Principal, Clark Capital | CNBC Contributor | U.S. Army 10th Mountain Veteran
Preserve capital first.
Generate durable income second.
Compound wealth over time.
That discipline has guided my work for decades.
I’ve launched a new publication outlining the framework behind it:
The Discipline Behind Durable Wealth:
https://t.co/FfPnFLz66O
Going back to 1926, the S&P 500 has seen an average drawdown of 18.2% in the 12 months before midterm elections 📉 Going back 60 years, the smallest drawdown has been 7.4% while the largest was 41.8% 🤯 After the midterms, all is well, but before? 🤔👀
With recent rotations in focus, equal-weight versus market-cap comparison shows that S&P 500’s YTD return is only modestly different (10.6% equal weight vs. 11.4% market cap), but sectors diverge more: Technology has largest positive equal-weight gap (45.6% vs. 24.3%, +21.3pp), while Communication Services has largest divergence in opposite direction (-6.5% vs. 6.8%, -13.3pp)
@SPDJIndices
WSJ: "Fears of rising interest rates collided with worries about artificial-intelligence spending on Wall Street Friday, bringing an abrupt and painful end to weeks of gains and sending the Nasdaq composite to its worst day in more than a year....
The losses intensified after a robust jobs report raised new worries that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates later this year to fight inflation."
#economy #markets #stocks @WSJ
What just happened?
The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.
What's happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, is telling you where to invest in 2026.
He has personally directed Nvidia's capital into 8 specific companies for a combined total of over $45 BILLION.
This is where the most important company in the AI economy is putting its money.
Here’s the full list:
OpenAI: $30 billion
The largest commitment of the 8. Nvidia is funding the buildout of OpenAI's compute infrastructure from the inside. OpenAI is also Nvidia's single largest customer.
GLW Corning: $3.2 billion
Optical glass and fiber to physically connect AI clusters. You cannot move data between millions of GPUs without it.
IREN: $2.1 billion
AI cloud provider with one of the deepest power positions in North America.
MRVL Marvell: $2 billion
Custom networking chips that move data between GPUs at massive scale.
LITE Lumentum: $2 billion
Lasers and optical components for the fiber backbone of every AI data center.
COHR Coherent: $2 billion
Fiber optic transceivers that connect GPU clusters inside data centers.
CRWV CoreWeave: $2 billion
GPU-as-a-service provider. Nvidia's largest cloud customer outside the hyperscalers.
NBIS Nebius: $2 billion
AI cloud infrastructure company. Quietly building hyperscale GPU capacity for the AI labs.
Whatever Nvidia is buying is where the money is going next.
At The Assembly, we’re a team of 8 with one goal: help you find the right stocks early.
Turn notifications on so you don’t miss our alerts. This is VERY important.
If you’re not following us yet, you will regret it later.
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.
He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.
He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."
He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.
But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.
Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
$NOW lowering margin guidance will be an important test. Those that think AI disintermediating software is an over-done theme has helped push $IGV (software ETF) from -37% to a 52 wk low to +19% vs S&P +5% in the past 8 trading days. Will this mark a near-term top?
Watching how the bigger names like $ORCL and $MSFT as well as the important security names like $CRWD and $PANW handle the ServicNow results will be an important tell.
I used to have a yellow sticky taped to my monitor that said “Do not fight the hard battles.” Even investors that were right in 1999 about $AMZN being the ultimate winner in e-commerce with revenues nearly doubling from $1.6B to $3.1B by 2001 had to suffer through the 95% stock decline from its peak in late 1999 to trough in 2001. It is a solid point that tech valuations were higher then but to me the time it took to reach the ultimate bottom is equally important.
This is not to discount the breath-taking rallies along the way. The S&P rallied seven times with an average of 14% each occurring over roughly two months while losing 49% over 2.5 years during the bursting of the internet bubble. During each one of those, it looked like THE bottom to some investors.
However my view is with agentic AI really coming to the forefront earlier this year as shown by the formalization of OpenClaw in late January, the software landscape has not had enough time to reshape in less than six months. ServiceNow among others aim to be the “control tower” connecting cloud infrastructure, LLMs, core business data and applications. However, despite their broader utility, they may still lose market value alongside more niche, single-purpose software companies during a sell-off. The CFO of a corporation will have to find a way to save costs from their expanded coding budget for Anthropic and OpenAI. Companies will not be able to sell that they are benefiting from AI versus being run over by it without having the numbers to prove it.
Tactically buying at oversold levels and leaving before the reality of companies having to report is typically my strategy during these times of big technological shifts, especially following a big market rally. The lackluster stock reaction of important early reporting tech companies like $TSM, $ASML and $NFLX despite the strength in the overall market was a reminder of that.
Coming up, five of the Magnificent 7 are set to report next week with $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT on Wednesday (the four big hyper-scalers have never been on the same day before) and $AAPL the day after. The overall market is also at overbought levels technically.
Some combination of the following reasons could lead to guidance or some metrics like margins being less than hoped for in some cases: 1) close rates on big deals were impacted at the end of Q1 by the Iran war, 2) the surge in semiconductor prices could not be fully passed through to end customers and will impact margins going forward, 3) rising oil prices are impacting our shipping costs, 4) falling consumer confidence due to the geopolitical uncertainty is impacting advertising budgets, and 5) demand has been pulled forward by customers looking to get in front of price increases and will therefore result in less growth in 2H:26.
As Warren Buffett says, “the market has to keep pitching but you do not have to swing.” I feel like Ohtani is now on the mound.
Milestone Update Reached 100% Total Return Since Inception in less than 4 years in my Retirement Income Warrior Inception Portfolio in my Seeking Alpha Investing group Service The Retirement Income Warrior
https://t.co/9Kb8hsCdN9
We’ve officially reached a major milestone—the RIW Inception Portfolio has now delivered a 100% total return since inception, effectively doubling in value in less than four years.
That kind of performance doesn’t happen by accident. It’s the result of disciplined execution, strategic positioning, and staying grounded in our core framework—capital preservation, income generation, and long-term wealth creation.
Just as important, this has been a true team effort. The insights, discussions, and contributions within this group have played a meaningful role in sharpening ideas and reinforcing conviction at critical moments.
We’re not finished—but this is a moment worth recognizing.
Stay focused. Stay disciplined. The next phase is where we build on this foundation. Thank you DAC @GiantETFphisher@hopkinscolorado@SAjamesb@SeekingAlpha@JohnMelloy@CNBC@RobSechan@TheJJKinahan@sharon_epperson@jonfortt@cvpayne@Jason_Snipe @ScottWapnerCNBC