Democracy Desk

Political nerd, statistician -- #Polls #PoliticalNews - Trends, Stats, Graphics and MORE! Fair and balanced coverage. All sides welcome.

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#PROJECTION: Democrat Derek Tran defeats incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in #CA45

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220-215

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If most are provisionals, it is even more unclear.

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McCormick is now below 30K votes ahead in #PASen, but still a VERY tough hill for Casey to climb. Even if there are still 100K votes, Casey would need almost 70% of them.. mathematically possible, but with the uncertainty of just how many votes are out makes it even more unclear.

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Remaining CA races. I expect Gray (13) and Tran (41) to soon take the lead based on where the vote is outstanding. Calvert looks like he will narrowly hang on if I had to guess... remaining Riverside vote doesn't appear as favorable for Rollins. #Elections2024 #Election2024 #CA13 #CA41 #CA45 #CA47

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Ballots from Presque Isle in northern Aroostook County have just arrived via Maine State Police.

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UPDATE: Per Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, the RCV tabulation for #ME02 is expected to take several days. Tabulators began counting starting with Aroostook County around 1pm EST. #Elections2024

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For those not familiar with New England political geography, though counties exist, most government business is done at township level. Because of this, counties themselves don't report election results to the state, but the towns themselves.

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PROJECTION: Democrat George Whitesides defeats Rep. Mike Garcia (R) in #CA27 -- #Election2024 #Election

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GRAPHIC: For those curious of swing from 2016-2024 in PA... #Election2024 #Election #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump

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#Election2024 Here is my take on the remaining CA races:

LEAN D:
CA 27 (Whitesides)
CA 45 (Tran)
CA 47 (Min)

LEAN R:
CA 22 (Valadao)
CA 41 (Calvert)

TOSSUP:
CA 9 (Harder)
CA 13 (Duarte)

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Democrat George Whitesides has taken a slight lead over inc. Rep. Mike Garcia in #CA27. New numbers:

Whitesides (D): 134,231 50.4%
Garcia (R): 132,117 49.6%

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#PROJECTION: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) will defeat Kirsten Engel (D) in #AZ06 . #Election2024

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#PROJECTION: Democrats will retain control of the PA State House by a margin of 102-101. #Election2024

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#PROJECTION: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) wins the #AZSen race over Kari Lake (R) #Election2024 #ArizonaSenate #RubenGallego #KariLake

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Opinions aside, the Dobbs issue could still have small, yet consequential impacts on the race… especially if it is close.

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Interesting… my conservative neighbor told me today she is voting Democrat for the first time in her life tomorrow. Why? She said she feels the GOP is becoming the party of men, and enforcing laws on how to “control” women’s lives.

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3/3

Of the WOW counties, I believe Ozaukee has —potential— to swing blue this year… Waukesha’s continued GOP % will likely continue but by how much…?

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There are three areas in the 3 Great Lakes battlegrounds that will be worth watching:

-PA: Lehigh Valley
-MI: Grand Rapids Area
-WI: The WOW counties

#Election2024 #Pennsylvania #ElectionDay

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2/3

Grand Rapids area used to be solid GOP territory, but has trended blue. Will be interesting to see if Kent Co. stays blue and by how much…