Steve Estes

Tweets about Politics, Economics, Tech, and US Soccer. Probably not in that order. Co-host of The Women's Football Finance podcast, @twffpod

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dilanesper @NeoDogmaX We have a lot of great athletes specializing in soccer from a young age, and none of them (except arguably Pulisic) have ever reached a level you'd call "world class".

The difference-maker isn't 100 future-NFL players changing sports, it's the training & competition environment.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@NeoDogmaX @dilanesper My point is that very few of our future-NFL-level athletes are of the type that normally become pro soccer players. Half the guys on an NFL team are linesmen who probably average 6'5" these days. Meanwhile, pretty much the median person has a body that can become a soccer player.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@NeoDogmaX @dilanesper I dunno what to tell you, man, if you're under 6'3" you're probably not going to be a WR, linesman, LB, QB. To be a RB you have to have freakish levels of lower body strength and agility, slot WRs too. Even among DBs, most are at least 5'11, with freakish athletic traits too.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@NeoDogmaX @dilanesper I'm not speaking of their sheer size, though height is part of it (very few pro soccer players over 6'). Weight and muscle can be added or shed, yes.

But the best soccer players in the world are mostly 5'6"-5'9", and owe their job to technical skills learned young, not genetics.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@NeoDogmaX @dilanesper Let's try instead: What % of humans are born with a body compatible with possibly playing in the NFL? A tiny fraction, right, unless you're a kicker?

Now what % of humans are born with a body that can be shaped into a pro soccer player? Most, or at least a lot more, right?

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@Rookie_Mush People who don't know anything about women's soccer and are just learning about her - that's the first thing they learn.

As long as it makes them want to learn more, not stop there, and maybe stick around to watch some ball, I'm fine with it. Any hook works.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dilanesper @ChachaMarquis Entirely possible we haven't made a final in 25 years. England hasn't made one since 1966. But by then I predict we will usually be in the top 10, and will sometimes make deep tournament runs.

Poorer and less sports-crazy countries than us had a head start. But we're awake now.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@ball_knower123 @dendimanadeh @BolaIndustry yeah but when they built the current one in 1999, it wasn't a *necessity* to have a roof the way it is in, say, Minneapolis or Seattle. Browsing the list, most retractable-roof stadiums are in the south. The one that really breaks the mold is Indy (built 2005).

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dendimanadeh @BolaIndustry Retractable roofs for stadiums of that size are a major engineering challenge, one that has only been solved in the last decade or so. And they're expensive, so only built w/roofs in places that get too hot (mostly the South) or get too much snow in winter - Cleveland is neither.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@Albert_Kim2022 IT'S SHOWTIME!

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@ChachaMarquis @dilanesper I like Dylan a lot and will give him plenty of leeway to take a crack at things outside his lane like this, because in my experience he has a good hit rate and very clear-headed thinking.

I just happen to know a lot about US soccer, enough to know he's wrong in this instance.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@NeoDogmaX @dilanesper Look at the size and shape of most of the top soccer players in the world (small, thin, agile). Now look at the top athletes in the NFL. How many of one group would be in the other group, if nudged in a different direction as a kid? I submit the answer is nearly zero.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dilanesper It doesn't have to be important to a very big fraction of the population to have a decisive impact on your world-class-talent pipeline, when you have a population of 342M, and no top country besides Brazil is even half that.

We contain multitudes. We just need better coaching.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dilanesper Sure, but that's not evidence against my point. We've gone from being unable to field even a competitive team against top teams, to being able to consistently generate attacks and hold the ball against them. From well outside the top 30, to a rank in the teens. It will take time.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@Notnow1982 @PhillipsPOBrien Solid point, Zena, but it's not either-or, it's yes-and. There have been big steps made in eliminating EU dependence on Russian exports, starting with oil, taken even when it hurt. They're not finished yet, but that's no reason not to ALSO target low-hanging fruit like Aughinish.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@ISO19770 @Notnow1982 @PhillipsPOBrien this is a very poor reply to a valid critique by Zena. Money is fungible; revenue to Russia can be spent as they want, mostly on the war. Money "kills" in even-more-varied ways than alumina can be made to.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@Latent_Dev @Econymous_1 @ingelramdecoucy Sure, tho the topography of Austin is more favorable than the very hilly land around Pgh. But look at what's gone up in the Strip the last decade: modern mid-rise after mid-rise, w/highest property values in the city. Much housing stock needs updating but govt not a huge barrier.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dilanesper Just consider for a second why we're the #1 team in women's soccer. Different sports, yes, but sharing the same youth development infrastructure. Because of Title IX, we had a 30+ year head start on everyone else (other than the Nordics), while in men's we had a 50-year penalty.

[Steve Estes @Denzera]

@dilanesper None of this is true. The necessary attributes of great soccer players overlap very little with the attributes of great athletes in other sports. The team (and sport in this country) has been getting steadily better, faster, for 30+ years now, driven by increased popularity. etc