Derek

Anonymous economist. Tidyverse and ggplots...all day, every day.

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@GlennLuk @AngelicaOung @SilDogood https://t.co/myBGrC9qUF

[Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸 @AngelicaOung]

I was a rather precocious nine-year-old in Taipei on June 4th 1989. In my childish mind's eye...helpless students were kettled into Tienanmen square like animals in a pen before the tanks rolled over them, creating a kind of bloody, dense, student-patty. It was a flashbulb moment that represented the evil of the communist party of China and the destruction of the flower of China, the best of the best, by the worst of the worst.

Growing up sometimes means finding out the fairytales of your childhood is far more complicated than you thought.

This is Tienanmen Square 1989, as I understand it today. There was no bloodshed in the square. Dissident leader Liu Xiaobo (who subsequently won the Nobel Peace Prize) negotiated the peaceful withdrawal of demonstrators as the troops moved in. By the time the iconic Tankman stood in the way of PLA tanks, the crackdown was basically over. If you watch the video all the way through, you'll see tankman block the tank a few times, climb on top of it, before being led away.

This is not to say, of course, that there was no bloodshed. They mostly happened in clashes between violent demonstrators and PLA troops off the square. The "peaceful protestors vs brutal regime" picture is inaccurate and incomplete. The crowd ambused, mutilated, lynched, disembowled and burned the corpses of PLA soldiers. This is when the shootings happened: not in the square, not on the students.

You have to understand, in 1989, China didn't know how to deal with protests. They had no riot police. They rolled out the tanks and the troops not because they were determined to exterminate the crowd, but becauses they were unprepared. Since then, it's been largely a hushed and censored topic in China, which I think is a mistake. Because once you go through what actually happened, June 4th was a tragedy, not a crime.

It was Deng Xiaoping that made the decision to initiate the crackdown. He knew he'd bear the infamy. But looking at China in 2026, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that Deng did the right thing. The students in the square might have been truly idealistic and only wanted the best for China, but if the Chinese government have given in to their demands, China would not have been a democratic paradise but might have fallen into a chasm of chaos. We all saw what happened when the people of Russia cast off the Soviet Union only to be plunged into decades of pitch black despair. Had China done what the students asked, could the results have been any better? Already almost in retirement...Deng, who already saved China with his reform-and-open-up, arguably saved it again.

Most ordinary Chinese people I know now sees June 4th as an example of a failed color revolution, or an externally-driven attempt to destabilize China from the outside. They don't percieve the crackdown as the government oppressing the people, but of China asserting its sovereignty.

I know this is a controversial topic, and will probably draw a lot of condemnation from the usual crowd. So let me end with a criticism of the Communist Party of China: Stop censoring and shielding the history so much, and be frank about the past. When you try and erase June 4th, it means you yourself cannot tell your side of the story. The cultural revolution, for instance, works far less well as an anti-China talking point because the mistakes of that era are widely acknowledged and digested in China itself while June 4th still seems too raw to touch.

Below you can find the full "tankman" video. It only takes two minutes to watch. Try and watch it as if you're seeing it for the first time. What do you see? See less

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@GlennLuk @AngelicaOung @SilDogood why engage in good faith with the woman who posted on June 4 that the Tiananmen protestors got what they deserved? You treat Brad Setser infinitely worse just for interpreting customs data sloppily.

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@bavedikian Does Houston have one of those horrible pro-criminal DAs who won't charge anyone?

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

This tweet requires a response. As for the PRC’s invitation to the four academics to join Wang Yi’s meeting with the NCUSCR and USCBC, three of the four are white, so I guess I am also racist against whites? The other three disclose funding sources, SAIS should as well. These are legitimate questions for someone who is trying to become a player in the China policy making process of the Democratic Party, and is planning to use her forthcoming book to further her influence in the party for the next Democratic administration, assuming there ever is one. We should all want more transparency on all $$ flows into all DC think tanks and research centers, China-related or not. And I guess I am so racist that my wife and I were the inaugural donors to and key organizers of the first endowed high school Asian-American chair? https://t.co/vKU67QHdsQ the pushback to calls for disclosure has been quite illuminating, and from what I am hearing has a lot more people now wanting the question answered. So thank you for helping make the case, even if you did it by being a race-baiting clown

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@bavedikian @BestBuy @FedEx Hopefully you got the Fedex driver arrested at least?

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

Well yeah, they want to be able to sell un-interrupted to their international customers without subjecting them to the export control licensing regime. And there's already a massive ex-China R&D effort towards reducing HREE doping in RE magnets...so if China doesn't offer such products, they'll lose global marketshare

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@maxiaoalex @TheChinaJournal would love to read this article, but it is paywalled

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@AnechoicMedia_ i think you're overall an A+ poaster, but you really seem bearish on Elon overall. I don't get it. Reusable rockets, self-driving electric cars...

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

I think their unit economics are better than Waymo's, they are scaling faster than Waymo did at this point in Waymo's history (you implicitly acknowledge this, Waymo was 3 years old by 2020), and that FSD as a piece of software is more advanced that what Waymo's running.

I think autonomous rideshare is a winner-take-most market, and that Tesla will be the dominant market player in the US. Waymo will still be around, but I don't think they will be the dominant player.

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@binarybits @TrevorScottReal lmao. Can't believe I actually was once a subscriber to fullstack economics.

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@GarrettPetersen @SahilBloom ok but what if i have a nice car and i earn a lot?

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@AlecStapp ok, how many from mexico/central america...

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@StatisticUrban Base year of 2020 doing a ton of work here. Index it against 2019. Blue states had biggest GDP contractions during COVID.

[Nick Gillespie @nickgillespie]

A government that can't count votes in a timely manner shouldn't be allowed to run so many aspects of our lives.

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

China is making a big push for outbound investment.

China is also building tools to hit back at other countries if they “take discriminatory measures against Chinese foreign investment” in Beijing’s view:

“First, in response to investment barriers related to trade or other obstacles to investment and business operations imposed by foreign countries or regions, the State Council’s commerce department may conduct investigations on its own or jointly with other relevant departments. Based on the investigation results, relevant State Council departments may take measures such as adjusting country-specific investment policies and prohibiting or restricting the import and export of relevant goods and technologies.

Second, in response to discriminatory prohibitions, restrictions, or other similar measures adopted by foreign countries or regions, or international organizations, in areas such as investment and business operations, the Chinese government has the right to take corresponding measures based on actual circumstances. It may also, in accordance with the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People’s Republic of China and its supporting regulations, impose countermeasures on organizations and individuals that directly or indirectly participate in formulating, deciding, or implementing such measures.

Third, in response to foreign organizations or individuals that harm China’s national sovereignty, security, or development interests; interrupt transactions in violation of normal market transaction principles; or adopt discriminatory measures that unreasonably deprive or restrict investors and their legitimate rights and interests in outbound investment, relevant State Council departments may take measures against them, including prohibiting or restricting their investment in China, entry into China, and relevant transactions or cooperation.”

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

I, too, am pro-surveillance. I want Flock cameras everywhere, Ring cameras everywhere. I want every inch of public space covered by cameras that law enforcement can easily access.

The libertarian argument against this is silly, and it's a nightmare horseshoe scenario where libertarians lock arms with the pro-criminal progressive left.

Mass surveillance tools, in the context of a non-tyrannical government (like ours), have an asymmetric impact. Law-abiding citizens and legitimate businesses are already highly legible to the government: they have known, fixed addresses, registrations, licenses, etc. If the government turns tyrannical, it already has ample tools to destroy these entities *without* recourse to mass surveillance tech!

E.g. if President Gavin Newsom wants to liquidate the NRA, he doesn't need facial recognition cameras...he can seize membership lists, assets, etc. associated with the organization. But if Governor Newsom wants to stop organized shoplifting rings...it's very difficult given present tools, because these orgs are informal obviously, and aren't bureaucratically legible the way the NRA is. It's precisely in identifying and tracking otherwise anonymous criminals, via facial ID etc, where these tools yield a huge capacity boost to governments.

I'm confident the net result would be a *huge* reduction in crime, with minimal, incremental infringements to the civil liberties of law-abiding citizens.

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@tedfrank @bancosantander @Tesla I also loathe Santander, which manages my Tesla lease. Their customer service is abysmal.

[Derek @Derek_Econ]

@GlennLuk @dnystedt Appreciate the thoughtful response, many thanks