All Fiat are melting ice cubes 🧊 | ⚡️#Bitcoin is the escape from perpetual central bank credit expansion 🟠 | Data Viz & Research 📊 | Model Builder | Author
#Bitcoin’s current drawdown from ATH is only -36% vs past cycle lows that averaged ~-86%. My RLAE Model points to a “typical” low this cycle near -75% (≈$32K), with a wide 95% band from ~$15K–$70K. Charts shown for context, not financial advice.
#Bitcoin’s current drawdown from ATH is only -36% vs past cycle lows that averaged ~-86%. My RLAE Model points to a “typical” low this cycle near -75% (≈$32K), with a wide 95% band from ~$15K–$70K. Charts shown for context, not financial advice.
@TonySeverinoCMT So far, you and I are the only ones on my feed who have been correct since October's high. Just saying... Nothing to do until the second week of October.
Volatility is pressing toward the +2 sigma level, with +3 sigma now in sight.
That’s not “just another red day” behavior — that’s the market drifting toward statistically extreme fear. The closer VIX gets to +3σ, the louder the message: stress is building. $VIX $SPX low coming.
@CryptoCon_ Good job! I've built gobs of different models and ensured they're uncorrelated with different independent variables, and I can see a sub-$30k print too.
#Bitcoin’s current drawdown from ATH is only -36% vs past cycle lows that averaged ~-86%. My RLAE Model points to a “typical” low this cycle near -75% (≈$32K), with a wide 95% band from ~$15K–$70K. Charts shown for context, not financial advice.
#Bitcoin’s current drawdown from ATH is only -36% vs past cycle lows that averaged ~-86%. My RLAE Model points to a “typical” low this cycle near -75% (≈$32K), with a wide 95% band from ~$15K–$70K. Charts shown for context, not financial advice.
@TonySeverinoCMT@Andre_Dragosch Tony's correct in this statement; I had several family members and friends text yesterday, scared and searching Google for answers.
@JonStoski@TonySeverinoCMT Jon, yes, we dip below $50k, scare the daylights out of the power-law crowd, create a fat tail in the distribution, bounce into $32k, then reclaim power law with a $230k halving target by March 2028.