dretoshi

co-host @hodluppod | research @coincub_ | degenerate

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

@alephium LFGG

[atis @atisonchain]

$50.59B moved through prediction markets in a single month this summer. One venue took $37.7B of that. The category arrived.

80-90% of it is sports, per a February federal court filing. That volume funds the rest, and the rest is worth funding: a Fed working paper found macro event markets well calibrated, with a perfect record the day before FOMC decisions and CPI errors almost identical to the Bloomberg consensus. A central bank documented that an event venue prices the central bank’s own decisions about as well as professional tools do.

So the forecasting value is real. The open question is who is standing on the other side of the trade.

Right now nobody can answer that cleanly. Sethi’s wash-trade work found periods where up to 60% of volume was traders moving across wallets they controlled. Roughly 3% of traders drive most price discovery. Across $67B of volume, the top 1% of profitable users captured 76.5% of all profits. Every one of those figures is an identity question wearing a volume costume.

The category currently picks between two bad doors.

Door one is full KYC. It gives you surveillance that works, and it also means handing your passport to a venue whose resolution disputes have already produced death threats against a reporter naming where his family lives /// personally, I hate this.

Door two is pseudonymity, which buys privacy and hands you sybils, wash trading, and volume prints nobody can audit /// authorities don’t like this.

Think of zk proofs as a third door. You prove what a regulator actually needs (one human, one account, eligible jurisdiction, not sanctioned) and prove it cryptographically, without the venue ever holding the document. Sybil wash trading gets expensive because uniqueness is enforced at the credential layer. Volume becomes auditable because wallet clusters can be bounded. Concentration stats become checkable rather than inferred /// smartest approach imo.

Being honest about the limits: this does not catch the Special Forces sergeant or the teleprompter operator. Insider cases need identity unsealed after the fact, so you want selective disclosure with a court-order key, not pure anonymity. Credentials can also be rented unless they are bound to a device or a liveness check. And it does nothing for the oracle problem, where a $242M market got settled by a token with a $95M market cap and a $750 proposal bond.

My honest takeaway from putting this report together is that the forecasting value lives in a much smaller room than the valuations imply, and identity infrastructure is what makes that room bigger.

The sector is growing, but I hope it doesn’t turn into another pure gambling narrative - because prediction markets have so much more to offer than that.

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

Some work you finish. Some work stays with you.

We spent the past few weeks buried in this report, reading, interviewing, rewriting, checking every claim.

It took longer than expected and became one of the most fulfilling things we’ve worked on in a while.

[hodl up @hodluppod]

https://t.co/tYJl2cth2N

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

@hodluppod @Corpetty @Logos_network we back

[hodl up @hodluppod]

We sat down with Dr. Corey Petty (@Corpetty), Evangelist of @Logos_network, to dive into privacy, parallel institutions, and tech built to resist capture.

Why crypto's adoption looks like TradFi on the internet, why privacy can't be bolted on, and who really owns AI's pipeline.

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

@atisonchain idk i think it is awash in dilemmas & deficiencies

[hodl up @hodluppod]

Wall Street Strategies Are Coming Onchain

During @proofoftalk, we met with Jesus Lander to talk about how institutional-grade investment strategies can move onchain.

Full convo is out!

[hodl up @hodluppod]

This year's @proofoftalk didn't disappoint!

While there, we had the chance to interview Merita Spahiu from @cash_x_chain and discuss about the real world issues stablecoins can be used to solve.

Who said there's not enough women in web3?

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

@hodluppod we everywhere atp

[hodl up @hodluppod]

Crypto. Democratizes. Finance.

While in Paris, we had an insightful discussion with Ben Nadareski (@ben_solstice), the CEO of Solstice (@solsticefi), about the recent SLX TGE, the community feedback, the whole thought process behind it, and what lies ahead.

Full convo is out!

[hodl up @hodluppod]

Paris. Web3. Institutions. Suits.

We stood up (literally) with Matt O’Connor (@matty_) from Legion (@legiondotcc) to discuss Legion’s next chapter and how builders are adapting. For them, the next step is leading the evolution of private markets.

Full convo out now!

[hodl up @hodluppod]

https://t.co/jnZkta3eDs

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

@atisonchain 2029: Hodl Up Hair Clinic (in partnership with @mert)

[dretoshi @dretoshi]

@hodluppod @zachxbt ngl, 10/10 would watch an entire animated series featuring @zachxbt as the vigilante

[atis @atisonchain]

2025: Hodl Up Podcast

2026: Hodl Up Podcast; Hodl Up News; Hodl Up Research; Hodl Up Comics

2027: Hodl Up Podcast; Hodl Up News; Hodl Up Research; Hodl Up Comics; Hodl Up Gaming; Hodl Up Tech; Hodl Up Football Team; Hodl Up Political Party; Hodl Up Token; Hodl Up World; Hodl Up ETF; Hodl Up Band; Hodl Up @KASTxyz Card

2028: Hodl Up Wallet; Hodl Up Wallet Drain from DPRK, Hodl Up @zachxbt Investigation...

[hodl up @hodluppod]

We're tired of AI slop. So we made a comic... using AI.

Featuring @zachxbt!

[hodl up @hodluppod]

https://t.co/be5R6BHW8I

[hodl up @hodluppod]

https://t.co/vgTFHz2BLI

[hodl up @hodluppod]

https://t.co/Q8RolBQS4g

[hodl up @hodluppod]

The blockchain is becoming a transformative technology that aims to bring the whole world onchain.

Despite all kinds of use cases, trading remains the king when it comes to volume.

We sat down with @0xSimonJones and discussed how @reya_xyz is contributing to that. Dive in!