Tom Dunleavy

Head of VC @ Varys | Ex: Messari, State Street | CFA/CAIA

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

U.S. households are sitting on $3.2 trillion of cash

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

There were signs

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

There were signs

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

U.S. households are sitting on $3.2 trillion of cash

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Good time to remember the S&P 500 has never peaked for the year in June.

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Materially lower firms anount of currently in market.

Many deals take 6-12 months to get announced.

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

The Number of Crypto VC Has Fallen to a Six-Year Low

According to CryptoRank, in Q2 2026 the number of active global crypto investors (mainly institutional or VC participants) fell to 651, far below the 2022 ATH of 2564. The figure is only slightly above 2020 levels, when quarterly participants ranged between 250 and 450, marking a six-year low. The analysis suggests that crypto venture capital is increasingly concentrated among a small group of professional investors, while overall market participation remains well below the previous cycle peak.

[Polysights @Polysights]

We're excited to announce Polysights has raised $1.5M to build the automation and intelligence infrastructure for prediction markets.

Backed by @yzilabs S3, @Maven11Capital, @VarysCapital, @ContributionCap, Edge Ventures, and strategic supporters across the ecosystem.

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Credit card spending for the lower income is sharply rising this year

[Seth Ginns @sethginns]

A $1.8T asset manager just built a dedicated crypto investment team. I’m the Chief Investment Officer.

The “do digital assets have staying power?” debate is over. Here’s what comes next 🧵

[Squiggly Hair Shanks @redhairshanks86]

read between the lines:

- ethlabs was formed bc leading voices in crypto are unhappy with the leadership of the EF

- make no mistake, this is a hostile takeover. they won’t cannibalise EF, but the message is clear: we don’t like how you ran the foundation and we are doing it differently now and most industry leaders agree

- many ex EF people were invited to join ethlabs, not vitalik and aya though, they are the main reason why the ef is not doing well

- vitalik is a great innovator and thinker but it requires a different skillset to lead and scale a company than to invent something. he chose people based on personal likeability as opposed to competence

personally, i love this. i am neutral towards the EF, but they definitely did not do a great job so it’s refreshing to see a new team attempt to make ethereum great again

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

The top 1% of prestige assets are the most AI-proof commodities in the world

Universities, Real Estate, Cars, Watches, Cards, Events

...and they are only growing more valuable with shifts in wealth distribution

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

@renksieth np bro

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Please listen to this 2-minute clip, then feel free to ignore me for the rest of eternity.

[DeFi Dad ⟠ defidad.eth @DeFi_Dad]

I hate to tweet a clip from a new @Edge_Pod not out yet, but I can't wait to release this pod tomorrow with @dunleavy89.

Someone said today there's no ETH bull thesis for outperformance.

Tomorrow we drop an entire convo discussing a valuation framework that says ETH is mispriced right now.

Fees are friction, not revenue. DCF is clearly the wrong model in a proof of stake network like Ethereum.

Ethereum is the vault, but ETH is the lock on all its rich economic activity.

Tune in for @dunleavy89 from Varys Capital tomorrow!

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Distribution > product in the AI era

[DeFi Dad ⟠ defidad.eth @DeFi_Dad]

One comparison for valuing ETH, we discuss with @dunleavy89 is the bear takes on "ETH is just Linux" or "ETH is just DTCC."

Both Linux and DTCC borrow their security from outside their own systems, ie US law.

Ethereum buys its security from inside, in its own asset, ETH.

DTCC doesn’t need its own token to secure itself. Ethereum does.

You need ETH to transact. You need ETH to secure the network. That is all built into the network that is Ethereum.

Which is why ETH has to be valuable as it continues scaling to host so much value in the form of stablecoins, RWAs, and crypto-native assets. 🫡

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Please listen to this 2-minute clip, then feel free to ignore me for the rest of eternity.

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

@StaniKulechov The cheapest ticket in boston is currently $2300.

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

@DamonBruce They play at 3pm in the lord's time zone

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

@SolarEtherPunk @DeFi_Dad @edge_pod Thank you!

[DeFi Dad ⟠ defidad.eth @DeFi_Dad]

🎙️ New @Edge_Pod

🔐 Ethereum Is A Vault, ETH Is The Lock: A Framework for ETH's Fair Value, Today and By 2030

0:00 - Intro
2:51 - Tom’s role investing at Varys
3:32 - DCF is the wrong way to value ETH
6:16 - Is Ethereum winning?
11:40 - Fees are friction, not how we value ETH
16:12 - Can Ethereum have its cake and eat it too?
19:45 - If Ethereum is the vault, ETH is the lock
23:58 - Why stablecoin numbers look bullish
27:04 - Ethereum must succeed, or crypto fails
28:59 - Comparison to Linux + DTCC is wrong
32:55 - Importance as trustware producing blocks
35:40 - Underestimating the L1 scaling
39:41 - Stablecoin issuers still rely on Ethereum
42:11 - The framework is for ETH, not DeFi tokens
45:15 - $20k - $50k price once liq hits $750B
47:33 - How Tom gets to a FMV today of $6.9k
52:59 - 2030 base case ($55k) vs bull case ($138K)
53:57 - Closing

🙏 Thanks to @VarysCapital Head of Venture, @dunleavy89, for joining us!