Evan Dawson

Host of Connections on NPR's Rochester and Finger Lakes stations. Listen: Wine book author. Coaching third base in a town near you.

[Holly ⏸️ Elmore @ilex_ulmus]

@grep_cat_ Here are our recommended actions to fight AI danger: https://t.co/pB0uYfNCfR

[David Krueger 🦥 ⏸️ ⏹️ ⏪ @DavidSKrueger]

I've had many ongoing disagreements with many in AI Safety for >3 years, but I feel like things may be approaching a turning point...

Some views that I think people are belatedly agreeing with:
- Technical alignment: unlikely to be solved in time
- Durable AI moratorium: possible
- Speaking candidly about the risk of AI and the need to shut it all down: good
- Evals and RSPs/self-regulation: counter-productive delaying real regulation
- Anthropic: not trustworthy

[Romy @Romy_Holland]

i’d really like to meet my daughter in june. i’d like to know what her first word will be and see her go to kindergarten and high school and have favorite books and unrequited crushes and songs she plays on repeat.

it’s absurd to me that we ended up in a world where the big labs are all in some spider-man meme standoff in which everyone acknowledges that what they’re doing has a substantial chance of killing us but nobody will stop.

i’m angry that they’re spending significantly more resources on building a self-detonating nuke than they are on trying to coordinate a global pause on development. i’m angry that everyone i’ve ever known might die because a few thousand people are knowingly pursuing something this reckless.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@DamonLinker It’s reached the point where anything short of a forced stoppage of research and development is both dangerous and stupid.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@phillipdampier I want you to be right about this. So very much.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

Everyone should be paying attention to this. It's exhausting but it's our future. And it's coming fast.

[Rob Wiblin @robertwiblin]

Paul Christiano (OpenAI board member) yesterday:

"There's material risk of AI takeover in the next 6-12 months.

We have seen roughly the things we might expect to see shortly before something really bad were to happen.

Even with [any] realistic policy responses, the risk remains exceptionally high.

If we build this as quickly as we can in the easiest way we can the chance is [more like] a coin flip [within the next 3 years].

For most people in this room, the most likely reason they will die is because of an AI accident."

Christiano:

• Is on OpenAI's safety and security committee (which exists to block risky practices)
• Co-invented RLHF at OpenAI back in 2017-2021
• From 2024-2026 was head of safety at the US gov's AI agency (now called CAISSI)

(Video is from 'The Hinton Lectures' there's another on tonight and tomorrow.)

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

“Have to culture war better” from a truly influential person. We will never get out of this loop will we

[Christopher Rufo @christopherrufo]

Have spoken with many people on the Right in the past week. A recurring theme: must reconstitute the party behind someone who can combine free-market economics, effective culture war, foreign policy realism, and hyper-competent administration. DeSantis frequently mentioned.

[Brendan Nyhan (@BrendanNyhan on 🟦☁️) @BrendanNyhan]

I wish Biden a full and speedy recovery. But this news is precisely the reason his decisions and behavior in 2023-2024 were so irresponsible. He would be halfway through his second term right now. He's 83.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

Extraordinary clip. Trump is moving toward the Joe Rogan position, and moving away from the Miller position. All while elevating Miller to CoS.

[Matt Van Swol @mattvanswol]

I legitimately fell out of my chair watching this…

Is Trump seriously suggesting MASS AMNESTY for illegal aliens???

WHAT?!!!

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

Is this… is this supposed to be a sick burn?

“We didn’t storm the capitol this time, dweebs!”

[Sean Spicer @seanspicer]

Tuesday was not a good night for Republicans

It’s been 4 days and no protests, riots and vandalism..

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@TheLizMac (I’m a fan of Reason and its team! That’s why I was surprised!)

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

Then you live in a bubble. I've lost count of how many Christians I know that generally agree with these ideas and recognize them as Christian.

[Liz Wolfe @LizWolfeReason]

I would argue Talarico's theology is not recognizable to the majority of Christians, and is instead mostly palatable to the non-religious and very lightly religious

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@TheLizMac Fair point. I’ll amend: she’s an impressive person who has a wide range of experience in the world. I’m surprised her views on this particular issue seems so bubbled.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@TheLizMac But I’m just reacting to what she said herself! I’m simply saying, there are many Christians, who feel like Talarico! I’ve met plenty! There are also many Christians, who don’t recognize Talarico‘s ideas as being truly Christian. There’s a wide range!

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@TheLizMac Your argument is that I, who interacts with Christians who hold a wide range of political views, is bubbled, whereas the person who only knows Republican Christians is not?

[Jessica Huseman @JessicaHuseman]

Just so I understand: You're suggesting that Republicans, who have controlled every statewide elected office in Texas for more than 30 years, rigged an election against themselves?

[Stephen Hayes @stephenfhayes]

The most important line here isn’t in the analysis. It's: “Many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)”

Man, if you’re living in a world where you think “many” people were focused on a Fox News celebrity the day before the midterms, you need to take a break from the internet. I'd prefer a vice president who doesn't know what a Fox & Friends co-host is saying from one moment to the next -- or, even better, doesn't care.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

Shorter version: Don't blame me for all the terrible things happening

Didn't work for Kamala Harris. Hard to believe it works for JD.

[JD Vance @JDVance]

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

[Evan Dawson @evandawson]

@gmiller @ONagel33303 @ossoff At the very least, there will be a younger crop of people to contend for the presidency at a time when ASI might be nearly upon us. I'm glad Ossoff mentioned it. I suspect others will, too. DeSantis has been all over it!