Exploration Anon

Professional geologist and finder of tangible things.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

Silver, gold, natural gas, oil and potash will be the best performing assets of the 2020s.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@elerianm Nash equilibrium mate, give him credit 👍🏻

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@calvinfroedge How did I wake up to barnacle Twitter 😅. My contributon is about divers - yes, divers can scrape them off. No, tankers do not carry dive crews, and a DSV is not going into Hormuz any time soon.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@chigrl Where did they get that 2/3 figure from?! In my experience there is slim pickings in the Barents - there is a source rock problem up there. But I note you correctly said resources instead of reserves. I’d say those prospective resources average a 15% Pg.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@dlacalle_IA Have any gone back in?

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

There were fuel protests recently in Ireland, with the refinery and distributon networks blocked, the first thing everyone did was top off their tanks, with the government begging the citizens not to. If the American public does this when the signal becomes apparent, topping up say an extra quarter tank on average, that would pull c. 25m extra barrels of gasoline into peoples tanks. Which isn't there.

So you don't need a hurricane or pipeline outage to smack it below operational minimum. If people smell a shortage, this will happen.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@SamaHoole Groningen gas field was discovered in 1959, the largest in Europe by far. Their agriculture has been fuelled by that until it shut in 2024. I’m not disputing your correlation, but it’s more about how hydrocarbons made our societies prosper. And in the Netherlands case, taller.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@Amena__Bakr @staunovo Only if tankers go back into the Gulf, Amena.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@Rory_Johnston @staunovo Do hostages ever get back on to a hijacked plane? No. The hijackers have to be gone first.

Basic game theory, great to see you articulate this, Rory.

Nash Equilibrium says “stay out” because no player can unilaterally improve without trust.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

Cuba has been well explored, including by western companies. Any new discovery will take 5-10 years to come on stream.

Cuba is not about oil, it’s about Donroe doctrine and a huge gap in the security fence 90 miles from Florida. And about Marco Rubios understandable personal position on it.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

Oh tons of opportunity, in low perm conventional reservoirs adjacent to mature source rock. Nice, stiff and fracable rock. It’s not in soft shale source rock itself that bank and government analysts who have never produced a barrel of oil keep calculating.

Just ask a Bakken geo who has to go chasing a limestone stringer through the shale.

[Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap]

Assuming he TACOs, has refused to attack for wks=no appetite for conflict & wants an exit. IR deal will be bad, zero leverage diplomatically. He'll up PR game to spin it palatable, or distract w/Cuba. GCC will agree. If so, recovery starts, we still drain in June/July.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@FirstSquawk “Its” oil supply from Venezuela is an incredibly ignorant statement @SecretaryWright and secondly, no you won’t. You’ve plucked the low hanging fruit, now you’re into rusty pipes. It’ll take time. You know this of course as an engineer. Stop talking crap.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@MustReadAlaska Congratulations Santos and Repsol, thats a fantastic achievement for new Slope operators! You’ve come a long way from freezing fish into the ice road 🤭.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@SheDrills That was a lot more than 1 IQ point …

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@robprogressive Rob, don’t you think your ex-chancellor friend should tell @RachelReevesMP that 25% of gilts are index linked, and she needs to financially repress the other 75% for this to work?

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

That’s astonishing.

Until I recall @nntaleb ‘s anecdote that the head of trading the Swissie at his old firm couldn’t find Switzerland on a map. They are simply not required to think outside the confines of their incentive structures. So you get nonsense like this, which is given far too much currency.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@ericnuttall Carney will be told by Trump or hopefully the G7 more broadly that the world needs Canadian oil, and to stop grandstanding.

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

Love the CI plot Jorge, thank you. The only quibble I’d have with your analysis is taking your build rate back to 4/1, when the rate of change we are all interested in is when the ME tankers arrived two weeks ago. But two weeks is not a trend so I understand too. Looking forward to seeing how it develops 👍🏻

[Exploration Anon @ExplorationAnon]

@EboCee @MacrostrategyP @MerrynSW No the point doesn’t stand. Judging hydrocarbon density by area is nonsense, that’s the point I was making.

Norway has produced more historically than the UK, and has a lot more yet to produced. It simply got a better inheritance, and looked after it better.