Seth Keller

Father of twin boys, “the Data Guy” over at @FFFaceoff | MEDIAN PPG First Believer

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

For the third year, I’m running NBA Finals Squares to raise money for charity! It’s just like Super Bowl Squares but with more chances to win! 60% of the pot goes to the winners and 40% goes @HHFoundation81.

Last year @FFfaceoff and I raised $400+! Help us raise $500+ this year!

[seed oil enjoyer ☭🇵🇸🔻 @FFjunkie_]

i got to thank @AlfredoABrown for helping an unemployed teacher out w/a free copy of the rookie guide i won by guessing his comps

and as always, it was great to see NY area homies like @TheFFRealist and @fftheathomedad

[JB Barry @FantasyCoachJB]

Great time at the #SFB16 draft at Legends! #SFBNYC was awesome! Got to draft with some buddies like @CoreyHirt827 and @fftheathomedad and with @JamesRoday and @Michael_Fabiano too. Thanks to @ScottFish24 @ryanhallam and @FantasyCaresOrg for a great day!

[Andrew Cooper @CoopAFiasco]

There was so much heart at #SFB16 Boston today that we needed to commandeer both floors of the bar. I could not be more proud of the way this crew represents New England.

Tons of fun and insane generosity - thank you guys for making this event special!

[NessyFFB @NessyFFB]

If you’re not doing live drafts for the Scott Fish Bowl you’re missing out.

Thanks to @ScottFish24 @CoopAFiasco @FantasyCaresOrg for a great day.

[Adam Segal @AlwaysAuctions]

For those who play in #SFB, this is an awesome tool! ⤵️

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

As many #SFB16 drafts are finishing up take a second to see how your team stacks up against your league and the other 5000+ teams!

https://t.co/bTWiwxgsdL

[Andrew C @AndrewClarkFF]

#SFB16 Phoenix Live is in the books!

Thank you to everyone that showed up and to all our businesses, sponsors, donors, participants and @DaveandBusters for supporting our event. Proceeds of our event went towards @PhxChildrens I am wiped out but i was honored to volunteer and meet so many great people!

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@mkim521 Thanks for the heads up!

It’s fixed now and even better since it can pull/search through team names and usernames (on sleeper) to find your team (or spy on someone else 😜)

Still cleaning some name - ADP - projection issues (disregard Joe Reed and David Moore on the chart lol)

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

For anyone still in their #SFB16 draft, checkout the live draft tool I created!

Just put in your sleeper id and it will pull your league, your team, your league mates’ teams, AND a live chart of #SFB16 ADP and projections!

https://t.co/fup3GDWuSg

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@joewandy13 You may have gone to far lol
But let no one say you didn’t commit to the challenge!

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

Good work sir!

Not a projection (I did a similar projection process on the linked site), but historically the biggest reason to hit WRs in mid rounds is the 20+ rec. massive discrepancy in raw number and percent of plays rewarded

https://t.co/sVuPipKDQx

[Joe Pepe @jpep20]

I wanted to answer a simple question for #SFB16

Which position actually benefits the most from yardage bonuses?

So I built a probability model.

Instead of relying on season totals, I estimated each player’s single-game yardage distribution using projected yards per game and historical week-to-week volatility by position.

Then I calculated how often players are expected to hit common bonus thresholds:

• QB: 300+ passing yards
• RB/WR/TE: 100+ rushing or receiving yards

Here’s what the model found:

🏈 WR1s: 33% of games
🏈 RB1s: 31%
🏈 QB1s: 28%
🏈 TEs: 8%

The takeaway is not that you have to draft WR-heavy.

You can lean into WR like the rest of the fantasy world, but the gap between elite WRs and elite RBs is much smaller than the market often treats it.

That means you can also build through RB, give up very little in bonus equity, and zig while everyone else zags.

In bonus formats, elite RBs may be one of the cleanest ways to exploit current draft-room behavior.

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@jpep20 Yea I think we’re on the same wavelength of elite RB then highlight the bonuses to those mid round WRs.

I’m in the #SFBNYC live draft so I get to see all these constructions before actually drafting on 8/1

[Hammbone @Hammbone37Jon]

#SFB16 PEEPS... 👀

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@AddictedtoDD

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@kenflott Joe Reed was stealing Jayden Reed’s projections!

It’s been resolved and most (someone draft Brady 👀) retired players and all non eligible positions have been removed.

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@Mister_D7 This has been fixed. It takes a bit because of how many players are in sleeper’s player pool but will now show projections too

For more on the projections there’s a projections card on the home page

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@mcbreeze11 Thank you sir!

[John Laub 🇺🇸 @GridironSchol91]

Dear Teacher Friends:
For the sixth year, I am raising funds for @StJude. Any donation helps children and families. Please consider donating to a great cause.
#Teachers #BackToSchool #Education #ClearTheList #SupportTeachers #BackToSchool #Teachers #Academia #ClearTheList! 🍎

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@Mister_D7 Yea NYC Live doesn’t draft till August 1st so as I was seeing everyone else drafts I was like “let give this a try”

I’ll get it out sooner next year

Really glad you enjoy it

[Adam Segal @AlwaysAuctions]

We're LIVE in 30 minutes!!! 📺👀

Come join us for a Superflex auction mock with some of the best drafters around!!!

We'd love to answer your questions, hear your takes, and enjoy some friendly banter along the way.

https://t.co/TK6U3PezIh

[Seth Keller @fftheathomedad]

@FFRabbitDad Very much appreciated!
And that’s not a projection of where you will finish but you’re peaking into the next page I’m building 😉 😉

Also that chart should be in draft order - I’ll check the backend - and it’s showing how many of each position the teams around you have taken